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Winter Storm on the way late tonight and Monday

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories cover nearly the entire Northland for tonight and Monday.

Some cities included in the Winter Storm Warning: Hibbing, Duluth, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill City, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Sandstone, Superior, Bayfield, Ashland, Siren, Minong, Shell Lake, Spooner and Hayward.

Some cities included in the Winter Weather Advisory: Bigfork, Ely, Isabella and Grand Marais.

Expect difficult travel conditions late tonight into Monday with reduced visibilities and snow covered and slippery roads.

Winter Storm Warning in pink

Winter Weather Advisory in purple

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/
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Radar forecast valid from 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Monday per 18z NAM-WRF model.

-Areas of light snow and flurries are possible this evening near Lake Superior.

-Snow becomes steadier and heavier late tonight from west to east.

-Snow continues through Monday morning. Snow tapers off from west to east Monday afternoon, but some snow will linger along the South Shore of Lake Superior through Monday evening.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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Cold arctic air pushing south out of Canada and the Northern Plains with warmer air to the south. An area of low pressure over western South Dakota late this afternoon digs SE across southern Iowa Monday morning before turning E-NE Monday afternoon.

Moisture lifting north into colder air causes widespread snow to break out across the Northland later tonight, lingering into Monday.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight and Monday’s winter storm.

*Increased snow totals to 8 to 12 inches for Duluth and Superior.

*8 to 12 inches of snow for Two Harbors, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Solon Springs, Bayfield and Ashland.

*6 to 8 inches of snow for Grand Rapids, Brainerd, Aitkin, Sandstone, Hayward and Silver Bay.

*4 to 6 inches of snow for Bigfork, Cook, Ely and Grand Marais.

*Lesser amounts of snow across far northern Minnesota with totals of 2 to 4 inches for Orr, decreasing to around 1 to 2 inches for Littlefork and International Falls.

Going into our next winter storm here’s where we’re at for snowfall for the 2019-2020 winter season.

Totals listed below are from October 1 thru December 7, 2019.

Marquette, Michigan: 49.2″
Departure: +9.5″ above normal
Note: Last year thru Dec. 7: 62.6″

Duluth, Minnesota: 35.8″
Departure: +15.9″ above normal
Note: Last year thru Dec. 7: 14.7″

Brainerd, Minnesota: 19.5″
Departure: +8.6″ above normal
Note: Last year thru Dec. 7: 4.6″

Minneapolis, Minnesota: 15.9″
Departure: +3.1″ above normal
Note: Last year thru Dec. 7: 7.3″

International Falls, Minnesota: 11.6″
Departure: -7.9″ below normal
Note: Last year thru Dec. 7: 12.3″

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

One ingredient for tonight’s winter storm is this temperature contrast which is in place today with arctic air dropping south/east out of North Dakota and northwest Minnesota while warmer air was found over southeast Minnesota and in southern and central Wisconsin.

Source: RTMA model

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, December 9. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Monday, December 9.

Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Storm Warning for Duluth from 9 PM this evening to Noon Monday*

*Winter Storm Warning for Superior from Midnight tonight to 6 PM Monday*

Scattered light snow showers and flurries are possible this evening with a light dusting of accumulation possible.

Steadier snow arrives later tonight (~10 PM to 1 AM)

Snow overnight into Monday morning with some lake enhancement also possible if winds turn more to the ENE versus NNE.

Snow continues into early Monday afternoon but is expected to taper off to light snow or flurries by mid to late Monday afternoon.

North to northeast winds tonight into Monday morning at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Areas of blowing snow are possible late tonight into Monday.

Total storm accumulations of 8 to 12 inches by Monday afternoon.

An arctic airmass will follow this winter storm with frigid temperatures and bitterly cold wind chills expected from Monday night through Thursday morning with Tuesday and Wednesday looking like the coldest days.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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