Rain chances increase later this week with some wet snow also possible Friday

April begins on Wednesday – Here are the Climate Averages & Records for the month of April at Duluth, Minnesota.

Normals for April

Normal high on the 1st: 41 F
Normal high on the 30th: 57 F

Normal low on the 1st: 24 F
Normal low on the 30th: 36 F

Averages for April

Temperature: 39.6 F
Precipitation: 2.43″
Snowfall: 6.9″

Number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall: 4
Number of days with at least 1.0″ snowfall: 2

Number of days with a high of at least 50 F: 11
Number of days with a high of at least 60 F: 5
Number of days with a high of at least 70 F: 1

Mean date for 1st 60 degree temperature: April 12
Mean date for 1st 70 degree temperature: April 28

Records for April

Warmest: 46.1 F set in 1987
Coldest: 28.7 F set in 1950

Wettest: 8.18″ set in 2001
Driest: 0.24″ set in 1987

Snowiest: 50.8″ set in 2013
Least snowiest: 0.0″ set in 1976

Astronomical Data for April

Sunrise on the 1st: 6:47 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 5:54 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 7:39 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 8:17 PM CDT

Past April Snowfall Totals for Duluth, Minnesota from 2000-2019

Average Snowfall for April in Duluth is 6.9″

2000: 5.6″
2001: 7.7″
2002: 11.6″
2003: 12.9″
2004: 0.3″
2005: 0.5″
2006: Trace
2007: 12.7″
2008: 14.6″
2009: 1.2″
2010: Trace
2011: 10.6″
2012: 0.6″
2013: 50.8″ (snowiest April on record)
2014: 26.3″ (3rd snowiest April on record)
2015: 1.2″
2016: 9.8″
2017: 1.9″
2018: 18.5″ (8th snowiest April on record)
2019: 6.5″

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Upper level ridge keeping things quiet in the Northland today.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Here’s a look at how much precipitation could fall through 7 PM Thursday, April 2.

Greatest amounts across northwest Minnesota into the Dakotas, much lower totals through Thursday across northwest Wisconsin and most of northeast Minnesota.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday. Looks mainly dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday, but some scattered showers are possible for Wednesday night.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 3.31.20; https://weathermodels.com/

Still looks like the best chances for accumulating snow the next few days will remain well west of the Northland, but as colder air moves further east on Friday some parts of the Northland could see some wet snow with minor accumulations Friday or Friday night.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 3.31.20; https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fstart

We did see some low clouds move off Lake Superior into the Twin Ports for a few hours this morning, but these burned off quickly by this afternoon. Most of the low cloud cover this afternoon is out over Lake Superior, south into far northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan.

Source: Goes-16 visible imagery; https://weather.cod.edu/

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Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, April 1, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, April 1, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found across the Northland tonight with patchy low clouds/fog possible around Lake Superior. Lows tonight will be in the 20s with teens possible in the typical cold spots. Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday. Moisture advection increases on southerly winds with precipitable water increasing from <0.25″ Wednesday morning to around 0.50-0.80″ by late Wednesday evening. A few showers are possible in north-central/east-central Minnesota Wednesday afternoon, but a better chance for some showers will occur Wednesday night. Note: There is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm Wednesday night due to some weak elevated CAPE, but for the most part the threat for thunder is very low. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

A cold front will move slowly east across the upper Midwest Thursday and Friday. A very moist air mass will be found ahead of this front late this week with PWATS upwards of 0.75 to around 1.00″, very high for early April! Will likely get some rain at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Friday with the best chance for rain on Thursday across north-central Minnesota, then will see rain chances increase farther east on Friday.

Some wet snow and freezing rain is also possible on Friday, mainly across western portions of the area.

Dry weather returns on Saturday, but wet weather is possible at times beginning late Sunday and lingering into the middle of next week.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Some showers possible mainly Wednesday night. High 35 to 40. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle possible along with some rain showers. High 35 to 40. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 1

High 41
Low 24

Sunrise Wednesday 6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday 7:39 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cool lake wind Tuesday (patchy fog/low clouds near Lake Superior) wet weather at times mid to late week

This past weekend’s storm which affected the Northland is over the northeast US today, with troughs covering portions of the southern US, and moving ashore into the Pacific northwest while an upper level ridge covered the upper Midwest into Ontario today.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Tuesday will be another dry day in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but this will be followed by periods of rain from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening, there is also a chance for a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain at times, especially Wednesday afternoon/evening, and again Thursday night and Friday.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Significant River Flood Outlook valid through April 4, 2020.

-Significant River Flooding is possible in yellow, likely in orange, and occurring in red.

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, March 31, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, March 31, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Partly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland tonight with lows in the teens and 20s, but a few single digits can’t be ruled out in the typical cold spots in northern Minnesota. Winds tonight will be out of the east around 10 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday. Cool near Lake Superior with highs in the low to mid 30s while farther inland highs will reach the upper 40s to middle 50s. Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Note: Computer models are indicating the potential for areas of low clouds and or fog around Lake Superior on Tuesday due to the cool/humid flow coming off the lake.

Southerly flow increases on Wednesday as warm air and moisture advection moves into the upper Midwest ahead of a low pressure system which moves slowly east across the Northern Plains – There is a chance for some rain on Wednesday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and there is a slight chance for a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain as well, but this will be dependent on boundary layer temps which look to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s Wednesday afternoon when some precipitation moves into the area.

Thursday and Friday look wet at times as a cold front moves slowly east across the area. Southerly flow ahead of this boundary will continue to pump a rather moist air mass into the region with precipitable water of around 0.75 to 1″. Periods of rain are expected Thursday into Friday. The best chance for rain Thursday will be over north-central Minnesota, then will see rain chances increase farther south/east from Thursday night into Friday. Note: Enough cooling may take place for the rain to mix with or change to snow or freezing rain across north-central Minnesota late this week with at least some potential for ice or snow accumulations.

For Duluth and Superior, most of the precipitation looks to be in the form of rain late Thursday through Friday.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. High 32 to 37. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Some light rain possible in the afternoon. High 33 to 38. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 31

High 41
Low 27

Sunrise Tuesday 6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday 7:37 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Weekend Storm Recap and a look ahead to this week’s forecast which features more rain and possibly some snow mid to late week

Last night’s storm packed a punch with heavy wet snow, gusty winds and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.

-As of 6 PM Sunday, Minnesota Power reported 114 active outages in their service area affecting over 4000 customers – Link to Minnesota Power Outage Map https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

-Lake Country Power is reporting nearly 5800 members are without power as of late Sunday afternoon – Link to Lake Country Power Outage Map http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent

-Thundersnow occurrred in Duluth and other parts of the area late Saturday evening (radar image below was from 11:45 PM Saturday) note the lightning strikes over Duluth, and south of Oliver. Snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour occurred as this band of convection/very heavy snow moved through. I counted 3 flashes of lightning at my location in West Duluth late Saturday evening, amazing stuff as thundersnow is actually quite rare, even for this area.

-Saturday night’s winter storm was quite similar to a storm we had in Duluth last May on the 8th, that one also brought thundersnow to the Twin Ports and dumped around 10″ of heavy wet snow at the Duluth Airport.

-Elevation played a big role on snowfall totals Saturday night-Sunday morning, March 28-29, 2020 with a lot less snow next to Lake Superior in lower elevation areas, while significant amounts of heavy wet snow occurred in higher elevated areas, this was also the case with the winter storm last May.

Saturday’s mid latitude cyclone shows up well by all the lightning strikes that it produced from the Southern US to Ohio Valley into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes (orange, red and purple colors on map)

Source: https://www.lightningmaps.org/

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

-This was my final snowfall forecast I released Saturday afternoon for last night’s storm (see map below) Overall I’d call it a pretty good forecast, except for having the 7-12″ and 3-7″ zones way too far east in northwest Wisconsin, and I’ve yet to see any reports of snowfall over 8″ in the 7-12″ zone, so I was too high on snowfall totals in that area, but some locations were within the range, so again not too bad.

-I also didn’t have the heavier snow far enough southwest, so that was a big miss as Garrison picked up 5.5″ of snow (Garrison is located southwest of Aitkin) my forecast was for <1″ of snow for that area.

-Duluth Airport’s snowfall total was around 6″ – forecast was for 3 to 7″, so the Airport hit the high end of that range.

Note: All of these winter storms are difficult to forecast, especially the ones that hit early in the season, and the ones that hit in the spring. Temperatures with last night’s storm were marginal for snow, it all came down to whether or not we’d get strong enough lift in the atmosphere and enough dynamic cooling to take place to produce a changeover from rain to snow, and that did happen in parts of the area, thanks in part to the thunderstorms that moved through late last evening which helped to cool the column to produce snow. There’s always going to be a few misses in a snowfall forecast, either by forecasting too much snow, or too little snow in a given location, that’s just how it works with weather forecasting, nothing will be 100% perfect.

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland for March 28-29, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Lyman Lake, WI: ~8.0″ (Facebook report)
7.8 E Patzau, WI: 7.8″
9.7 SSE Wrenshall, MN: 7.5″
7 N McGregor, MN: 5.9″
Duluth Airport: 5.8″
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 5.5″
Garrison, MN: 5.5″
3.4 ENE Cloquet, MN: 5.0″
7 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 4.8″
Willow River, MN: 4.5″
Kettle River, MN: 4.3″
3 SSE South Range, WI: 4.3″
Moose Lake, MN: 4.0″
1 S Twig, MN: 4.0″
1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 3.4″
1 SSW Oulu, WI: 3.0″
2 E Poplar, WI: 2.9″
7 ESE Superior, WI: 2.4″
Silver Bay, MN: 2.0″
Two Harbors, MN: 2.0″
Gilbert, MN: 2.0″
Babbitt, MN: 1.5″
Brule, WI: 1.5″
5 S Herbster, WI: 0.8″
1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 0.7″
Precipitation Reports from around the Northland for March 28-29, 2020, ending at 7 AM Sunday, March 29, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/;https://mesowest.utah.edu/

7 N McGregor, MN: 2.08″
Barnes, WI: 1.55″
9 N Bayfield, WI: 1.55″
3.4 ENE Cloquet, MN: 1.49″
9.7 SSE Wrenshall, MN: 1.44″
Danbury, WI: 1.31″
Ashland, WI: 1.27″
Silver Bay, MN: 1.25″
Glidden, WI: 1.24″
Duluth Airport: 1.22″
Washburn, WI: 1.21″
Hinckley, MN: 1.19″
Hayward, WI: 1.19″
Siren, WI: 1.12″
Moose Lake, MN: 1.08″
Two Harbors, MN: 1.05″
Solon Springs, WI: 1.02″
Minong, WI: 1.01″
Superior Airport: 0.91″
Lutsen, MN: 0.39″
Isabella, MN: 0.36″
Hill City, MN: 0.20″
Aitkin, MN: 0.11″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.11″

Strong storm which impacted our area over the last 24 hours is pulling slowly off to the east this afternoon per Goes-16 water vapor imagery.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

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Near to slightly warmer than average temperatures are forecast this week across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Note: Normal highs across the Northland this week are in the low to mid 40s, normal lows are in the low to mid 20s.

Source: 12z European ensemble model; 3.29.20

Looks like the storm which hit parts of the Northland last night and today may be the start of a more active weather pattern over the next 2 weeks with potential for above average precipitation totals in our area through April 13.

Source: 12z European ensemble model; 3.29.20

Here’s a look at how much precipitation could fall through April 13 per the 50 member Euro ensemble model. Note: Will need to keep an eye on this as the spring snow melt continues in parts of our area, so a wetter pattern could lead to some flooding issues in the coming weeks, we’ve been fortunate up to this point with a slow snow melt and very little precipitation, but things may be changing the next few weeks.

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, March 30, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Monday, March 30, 2020.

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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for March 22 to March 28, 2020

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

3.22: 35F/-2 degrees below normal
3.23: 44F/+7 degrees above normal
3.24: 41F/+3 degrees above normal
3.25: 38F/Normal
3.26: 37F/-2 degrees below normal
3.27: 49F/+10 degrees above normal
3.28: 40F/Normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

3.22: 24F/+4 degrees above normal
3.23: 30F/+10 degrees above normal
3.24: 24F/+3 degrees above normal
3.25: 33F/+12 degrees above normal
3.26: 25F/+3 degrees above normal
3.27: 22F/Normal
3.28: 33F/+11 degrees above normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth for the week of March 22, 2020: 33.9 degrees; +4.4 degrees above average. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total Precipitation: 0.49″
Normal: 0.37″
Departure: +0.12″ above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 22, 2020

Temperature: 35.0 degrees
Departure: +1.9 degrees above average

Precipitation: 0.36″
Departure: 0.00″

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of March 22, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of March 22, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

After a stormy weekend in parts of the area, the weather will turn quieter the next few days.

Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s, highs on Monday in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but a northeast wind near Lake Superior will keep temps in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.

A more active pattern could return for mid to late week with a couple rounds of precipitation possible. The first wave moves through Wednesday bringing a period of rain, wet snow and possibly a little freezing rain to the Northland. A stronger system could affect the area Thursday and Friday with more rain, and possibly a little snow or freezing rain. Stay tuned.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy with gradual clearing during the night. Low 23 to 28. Wind north 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 40 to 45, but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 30

High 40
Low 23

Sunrise Monday 6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Monday 7:36 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Heavy wet snow, sleet, rain and gusty winds tonight-Sunday (isolated t-storms possible tonight) Winter storm warnings, advisories and lakeshore flood warnings and advisories in effect for parts of the Northland

Dry air in place with dew points of 29 to 32 degrees in Duluth late this afternoon, as precipitation falls through this dry air it’s evaporating before reaching the ground. With the dry air in place, it will cause boundary layer temps to fall a few degrees later this evening (closer to the dew point, but not quite that low) as precipitation continues to fall through this dry layer it will continue to moisten the atmosphere, so eventually will see precipitation reach the ground, and it could very well be in the form of heavy wet snow by later tonight. A process called wet-bulbing and evaporating cooling!

-Here’s my updated snowfall forecast ending at Noon Sunday.

-I did increase snow totals for some parts of the area.

-This will be a heavy wet snow, high water content with snowfall ratios forecast to range from around 5:1 to 7:1. Typically in our area, snowfall ratios are 10:1 or higher.

*7 to 12 inches of snow including Port Wing, Bayfield, Washburn, Iron River, Lake Nebagamon and Solon Springs.

*3 to 7 inches of snow including Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Duluth, Superior, Cloquet, Moose Lake and Ashland.

*1 to 3 inches of snow including Grand Marais, Isabella, Floodwood, McGregor, and Sandstone.

*Snowfall totals less than an inch farther west and north including Ely, Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Aitkin and Brainerd.

Note: One thing to keep in mind is that temperatures will be marginal for snow, hovering in the 33-35 degree range, so some of the snow may melt on contact, or could compact as it is accumulating, also snowfall totals could be quite variable over rather short distances. Some may get quite a bit while a few miles down the road not quite as much snow.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Sunday (pink area on map) including the cities of Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Washburn, Cable and Bayfield.

-Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Sunday (purple area on map) including the cities of Grand Marais, Silver Bay, Isabella, Two Harbors, Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Sandstone, Grantsburg, Minong, Ashland and Gile.

-Lakeshore Flood Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday (dark green area on map) with lakeshore flooding and erosion possible from the Twin Ports areas of Canal Park, Park Point, Minnesota Point and Wisconsin Point eastward to across the Bayfield Peninsula to Saxon Harbor.

-Lakeshore Flood Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday with lakeshore flooding along the North Shore from Two Harbors to Little Marais, and a Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect from 7 PM this evening to Noon Sunday for the South Shore with lakeshore flooding from Port Wing, east to Saxon Harbor.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

With the potential for heavy wet snow coupled with strong winds later tonight into Sunday morning there is some potential for a few power outages in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Here are some links to power outage maps

Minnesota Power https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

Lake Country Power http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent

Links to road conditions

Minnesota https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin https://511wi.gov/

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MRMS radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CDT, Saturday, March 28, 2020.

Heavy precipitation (mainly rain) along with a few thunderstorms lifting slowly north out of southern Minnesota late this afternoon.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening through late Sunday night (Midnight)

Snow in blue, rain in green.

Note: Another thing we may see happen is for elevation to play role, meaning higher elevated areas (away from Lake Superior) see more snow compared to lower elevation areas (closer to Lake Superior) This hi-res model shows this type of scenario playing out later tonight through Sunday morning.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model; https://weathermodels.com/

Precipitation will continue to slowly lift north/northeast into parts of the Northland this evening with the heaviest precipitation expected from late this evening through mid-morning Sunday, precipitation diminishes from NW-SE Sunday afternoon, but lake effect snow and rain could continue through Sunday evening along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Not too surprised given the setup that is in place that we have a PDS tornado watch in effect until 9 PM tonight. Stay weather aware in the affected areas.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

An impressive mid latitude cyclone lifting slowly northeast out of eastern Nebraska this afternoon per Goes-16 satellite imagery.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

And a look at today’s storm on Goes-16 mid level water vapor imagery.

One of the reasons for this evening’s potential outbreak of severe thunderstorms in parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley region are these very strong winds aloft which are spreading NE into a strongly sheared, warm, humid and unstable airmass.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

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…Outlook for Duluth and Superior…

*Winter Storm Warning for Superior from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Sunday*

*Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Sunday*

*Lakeshore Flood Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday*

.Tonight… Windy. Patchy drizzle early. Rain and snow developing between 8-11 PM. Snow could be heavy at times overnight. Sleet also possible late. Low 33 to 35. Wind east to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

.Sunday… Blustery. Rain and snow in the morning. Snow could be heavy at times. Lingering rain showers and drizzle during the afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. High 38 to 43. Wind north 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Some wet snow and rain on the way with gusty winds Saturday evening-Sunday morning, winter storm watch and lakeshore flood watch in effect in parts of the Northland

It’s been an interesting afternoon watching the computer models try to come into agreement on a storm track for this weekend. HRRR model is a miss, NAM’s a near blizzard, GFS shows mostly rain, Euro quite a bit of snow, fun times!

-There seems to be at least a little bit of a trend showing up this afternoon for this system to shift a bit more south than what it looked like 24 hours ago, this makes me nervous as I think the bust potential is rather high for this storm as a southern shift in the storm track could continue in the models through Saturday morning, and if this continues, most of the precipitation may end up staying south of Duluth and Superior this weekend.

-The potential is still there for an area of heavy wet snowfall to impact a portion of the Northland, but its likely to be a rather small area, so any shifts in the storm track will change the location of the heaviest snow.

-Most of the day Saturday should be dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, although I suppose there could be a little rain or drizzle, but overall it just looks like a breezy day under mostly cloudy skies.

-Precipitation in the form of rain and wet snow increases from south to north Saturday evening and during the overnight, and this precipitation will continue Sunday, but should diminish by Sunday afternoon.

-Heaviest precipitation whether its snow or rain looks to fall from about mid or late Saturday evening through Sunday morning (roughly in the 9 PM to 9 AM time frame) with the area at greatest risk for heavy precipitation from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, but again this area may shift a little more north or south depending on the storm track.

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Here’s my snowfall forecast for Saturday night through Sunday morning (confidence is very low)

I went back and fourth a few times this afternoon with my forecast, but this is what I’m going to go with as of 4 PM Friday.

*4 to 7 inches of snow across parts of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota including Holyoke, Solon Springs, Lake Nebagamon, Minong, Iron River, Port Wing, Bayfield, Washburn, Cable and Ashland.

*2 to 4 inches of snow including Duluth, Superior, Cloquet, Moose Lake, McGregor, Sandstone and Hayward.

*1 to 2 inches of snow including Two Harbors and Aitkin.

*Less than an inch of snow from Brainerd to Floodwood to Silver Bay.

…Bust potential is rather high, and I may need to change my forecast by either increasing or decreasing snow totals, and by shifting the gradients around over the next 24 hours… Stay tuned!

-Winter Storm Watch (blue area on map) in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon including the cities of Grand Marais, Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Isabella, Hibbing, Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Aitkin, Hill City, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Bayfield and Washburn.

-Accumulating snow is possible in the watch area along with gusty winds which may cause areas of blowing snow Saturday night through Sunday morning.

-Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel could be very difficult.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Lakeshore flooding is possible Saturday evening through Sunday morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior. The areas most at risk for lakeshore flooding and erosion includes Canal Park and Park Point, eastward across the Bayfield Peninsula to Saxon Harbor.

A dangerous severe weather day is possible on Saturday across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley with numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) The risk for tornadoes is greatest Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and mainly from far eastern Iowa into northwest and west-central Illinois. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has put portions of extreme southeast Iowa and northwest and west-central Illinois in a moderate risk or a 4/5 category for severe weather on Saturday. Note: Moderate risks are only issued a few times a year.

A potent setup for severe weather will be in place on Saturday as a deep and strong trough currently over the Rockies moves NE through the Plains while an area of warm and humid air spreads north out of the Southern US, this combined with very strong winds aloft will create the ingredients necessary for a severe weather outbreak on Saturday across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Goes-16 water vapor imagery shows this weekend’s storm moving across the Rockies today, eventually it will move out into the Plains where it will interact with abundant moisture.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

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Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning, March 28, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Saturday, March 28, 2020.

Most of the day Saturday looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but some light rain or drizzle is possible at times mostly over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

System arrives Saturday night, lingers into Sunday morning, and this is when the bulk of the precipitation should fall across parts of the Northland.

Temperatures are going to be marginal for snow with boundary layer temps around 33-34 degrees. Farther up in the atmosphere also doesn’t look very cold with 850mb temps of around -1 to -3C, and 925mb temps around -1C. So will need strong lift/ heavy precipitation rates to occur to cool the column enough in order to get snow, this should happen Saturday night through Sunday morning in parts of the Northland.

Much of northern Minnesota should miss out on the precipitation this weekend including the Bigfork, International Falls, Orr and Crane Lake areas.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

-Dry tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low 30 to 33. East wind 10 to 15 mph.

-Becoming windy Saturday. Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun possible) High 36 to 41. Wind east 15 to 30 mph.

Winter Storm Watch Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon

-Rain and wet snow gradually develops Saturday evening, precipitation changing to wet snow late Saturday night. Gusty northeast wind 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Low 33 to 35.

-Wet snow or a mix of rain and snow Sunday gradually diminishing in the afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible. High 38 to 43. Wind north to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim