Some snow on the way Sunday night-Monday morning

Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches continue to look most likely across northern Minnesota (north of Duluth) Sunday night into Monday morning with around an inch of snow forecast farther south, including for Duluth and Superior.

Most of the snow looks to fall from mid or late Sunday evening through early Monday morning, so the Monday morning commute could be impacted by this snowfall with slippery road conditions as temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 20s to around 30 degrees, before rising above the freezing mark by Monday afternoon with improving road conditions.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday (snow in blue colors)

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 3.14.20; https://weathermodels.com/

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Split flow pattern continues!

Typically split flows lead to generally quiet weather conditions across the Northland, and sure enough it’s been pretty quiet around here for quite some time now.

Computer models often have difficulties in split flow regimes, which is why we’ve seen a few instances over the last few weeks where computer models want to generate a big storm in the Northland in the long range (beyond 5 days) but as that time frame gets closer, the models change drastically and shift the storm track much farther south due to the models poor handling of the pattern we’ve been in for over a month now.

We’ve seen the same thing happen now for late next week. Computer models had been showing a rather strong winter storm affecting the Northland ~March 19-20, but the trends the last 2 days is to take this storm much farther south and away from our local area, and it’s all because of this split flow pattern, and the lack of phasing between the 2 jet streams.

We have the Northern branch or polar jet stream with generally weaker systems, while the southern branch or subtropical jet has been far more active with larger storms tracking from the western U.S. into the southern and eastern U.S.; this leaves the Northland in the weaker northern jet with the occasional light precipitation event.

Source: 12z European computer model 3.14.20; https://www.ecmwf.int/

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, March 15th, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Sunday, March 15th, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Mainly clear and cold tonight. Lows will be in the single digits and teens with subzero temps possible in the typical cold spots. North or east winds around 10 mph.

Sunshine on Sunday, but clouds will be on the increase through the day. Highs will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s with east to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Note: We could see a few light lake effect snow showers and flurries along the North Shore of Lake Superior on Sunday due to the ESE wind.

A disturbance embedded in the westerly flow will move across the Northland Sunday night and Monday, this feature will bring some atmospheric lift to the area which will lead to some snow Sunday night into early Monday morning, this will be followed by a few snow or rain showers Monday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the 30s.

Note: Another round of light snow or mixed precipitation may affect the Northland in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame (March 18-19) however this doesn’t look like a significant event at the moment.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15. Wind east around 10 mph.

.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible early. High 29 to 33. Wind east to southeast 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday night… Some snow, especially late evening through the overnight. Accumulations of around an inch. Low 24 to 29. Wind east to southeast 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Some light snow possible early, then a few lingering snow or rain showers. High 35 to 40. Wind becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 15

High 34
Low 17

Sunrise Sunday 7:20 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday 7:15 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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