Increasing clouds on Friday with some rain at times; sunshine, breezy and mild Saturday

-Some rain is in the forecast for Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior as easterly winds increase to around 10 to 20 mph.

-An area of low pressure with its warm front and cold front will move east out of the Northern Plains and into the upper Midwest on Friday with southerly flow ahead of this system drawing moisture northward into our area. Model guidance is showing precipitable water values increasing to around 0.75 to 1.00″ in most of the Northland Friday afternoon, so this does raise the risk for a few heavier downpours, but mostly looking at light to moderate rain showers with rainfall totals by late Friday night generally in the one-tenth to three-tenths inch range.

Here’s a look at our system for Friday – It’s over the Rockies today and is heading off to the ENE.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor imagery 4.30.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

There could be a few showers over western parts of the Northland Friday morning, but shower chances increase from SW-NE during the afternoon with rain showers continuing into Friday night before ending early Saturday morning.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 4.30.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

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Severe thunderstorm events usually start to ramp up in Minnesota and Wisconsin during the month of May – On average here’s a look at how many tornadoes occur in May (1989-2013 climate period)

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

May begins on Friday – Here are the averages for May at Duluth, Minnesota.

Averages for May

Normal high on the 1st: 57 F
Normal high on the 31st: 67 F

Normal low on the 1st: 36 F
Normal low on the 31st: 45 F

Temperature: 51.4 F
Precipitation: 3.23″
Snowfall: 0.4″

Number of days with a high of at least 70 F: 6
Number of days with a high of at least 80 F: 2

Note: Average date for first 80 degree temperature is May 23rd

Number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall: 1

Records for May

Warmest: 57.7 F set in 2018
Coldest: 38.8 F set in 1907

Wettest: 7.99″ set in 1899
Driest: 0.15″ set in 1976

Snowiest: 13.3″ set in 2019

Astronomical Data for May

Sunrise on the 1st: 5:53 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 5:18 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 8:20 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 8:54 PM CDT

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday… Increasing cloudiness. Afternoon and evening showers. High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind becoming east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday… Breezy. Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70. Wind west 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 1

High 57
Low 36

Sunrise Friday 5:53 AM CDT
Sunset Friday 8:20 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Pleasant weather Thursday; rain chances return Friday afternoon; shot at 70 degrees in Duluth Saturday

-Thursday is shaping up to be a real nice spring day across the Northland. Lots of sunshine is in the forecast with high temps in the 60s! Winds will be out of the southwest or north at 5 to 15 mph.

-As nice as Thursday will be, Friday isn’t looking quite as nice as will see more clouds along with some rain by the afternoon. Highs Friday could climb into the 50s and 60s, but this will depend on the timing of the clouds and rain. It also looks like will have an easterly wind on Friday which should keep temps in the 40s near Lake Superior.

-As for Saturday, if skies clear early enough, and the east wind early in the day shifts to the west like the models show it doing, then I see no reason why we won’t make a good run at hitting 70 degrees in Duluth.

An early look at the timing of Friday’s rainfall.

Begins in western-southern areas mid to late Friday morning, then the showers will spread farther ENE Friday afternoon.

Note: Looks like the rain moves into Duluth and Superior around 1-2 PM Friday with some rain continuing through Friday evening before ending later Friday night (timing of the rain could change)

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 4.29.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

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Rainfall Reports from around the Northland from Tuesday, April 28, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

6.7 SE Hayward, WI: 1.77″
Glidden, WI: 1.61″
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 1.43″
1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 1.40″
Hurley, WI: 1.37″
1 SW Ashland, WI: 1.36″
Bayfield, WI: 1.26″
Danbury, WI: 1.26″
Ashland, WI: 1.15″
Minong, WI: 1.06″
Hayward, WI: 0.98″
Washburn, WI: 0.94″
Siren, WI: 0.93″
Poplar, WI: 0.83″
South Range, WI: 0.74″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.67″
Superior, Airport: 0.51″
Esko, MN: 0.44″
Duluth Airport: 0.40″
Lutsen, MN: 0.25″

Here’s a look at how much rain fell with Tuesday’s system.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Quite a storm wreaking havoc today east of our area with heavy rain which is causing some flooding, and also strong N-NE winds which is causing lakeshore flooding near Lake Michigan today.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor imagery 4.29.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

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The early to middle portion of next week looks rather chilly at the moment, and we could also see some more rain, and possibly even some snow depending on the track of next week’s system, and how the temperatures setup from the surface to aloft – Stay tuned!

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

The Euro ensemble snowfall chiclets are showing some color after about May 4th, in other words, our snow season in Duluth may not be over just yet.

31/50 (62%) EPS members from the 12z model run from April 29 show some sort of snow accumulation occurring in Duluth sometime between May 5th and May 14th.

Quite a few things will have to setup correctly in order to get snow in May, but snow in May has happened before, in fact Duluth averages 0.4″ of snow during the month of May.

Snowiest May on record in Duluth (going back to 1884) was 13.3 inches set just last year (2019)

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40. Wind north to northeast 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Increasing cloudiness. Some rain possible in the afternoon. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind becoming east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 30

High 57
Low 36

Sunrise Thursday 5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday 8:18 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Breezy! Rain continues in parts of the Northland this evening; some sun returns Wednesday

Rainfall Reports from around the Northland for Tuesday, April 28, 2020 through 5 PM CDT.

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Barnes, WI: 1.01″
Siren, WI: 0.93″
Minong, WI: 0.89″
Hayward, WI: 0.89″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.85″
Ashland, WI: 0.61″
Hinckley, MN: 0.59″
Washburn, WI: 0.51″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.42″
Superior Airport: 0.41″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.35″
Glidden, WI: 0.34″
Duluth Airport: 0.32″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.26″
Brainerd, MN: 0.24″

-No 70s yet this month in Duluth, but we typically only get 1 day at or above 70 F in April.

-Average date for first 70 degree temperature in Duluth is April 28th (1874-2019 climate period) Last year’s first 70 in Duluth occurred on April 20th, while in April 2018 our first 70 came on April 30th.

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-Rain continues this evening in parts of northeast and eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, but the rain will gradually end from NW-SE this evening except over southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin where some rain lingers into Wednesday morning.

-Wednesday looks mainly dry across the Northland with near normal high temps in the 50s to lower 60s. Breezy north-northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

18z NAM-WRF simulated radar forecast from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Wednesday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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I think you can pick out on the map below where it’s been cloudy and rainy today. Hint look for the cooler temperatures (<50 F)

Radar loop ending at 5:10 PM CT, Tuesday, April 28, 2020. Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Not very often do you see two strong lows so close to each other! Cool stuff!

One system is dropping SSE across the Dakotas this afternoon while another system lifts ENE across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor imagery below, and visible satellite imagery below that; 4.28.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

April 2020 has been a dry month, but things have changed a little bit over the last few days with back to back rain events impacting the Northland – Here’s a look at 2-day rainfall totals. Note: This doesn’t include the rain that fell in parts of the Northland today.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Rain and drizzle ending between 7-9 PM. Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 39. Wind northeast 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Breezy. Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 59 to 64 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 29

High 56
Low 36

Sunrise Wednesday 5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday 8:17 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cool NE wind with some fog and drizzle near Lake Superior tonight and Tuesday; some rain possible Tuesday mainly west/south areas

-It’s a good thing we got some rain in Duluth Monday morning because it’s not a guarantee will be getting more rain on Tuesday, and after Tuesday it looks like will be going right back into a dry pattern for a little while.

-Speaking of Tuesday’s system, I’ve been watching this one for days, and what started out like it would be a good soaking for much of the Northland has changed quite a bit over the last day or so. It now looks like the heaviest rainfall will remain south of our area on Tuesday, but some rain (mostly light stuff) is still possible across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin including for the Twin Ports of Duluth and Superior.

-It should be noted that there continues to be big model disagreement with Tuesday’s system with the afternoon HRRR (18z run) keeping most of the area dry on Tuesday, while the latest NAM (18z run) shifted things back north again with a swath of heavier QPF (rainfall) from about the Twin Ports on south. German-Icon, Australian and Canadian models keep the rain mostly south of the Northland on Tuesday, while the GFS and Euro models show at least a little rain impacting southern areas and Duluth on Tuesday. I guess you could call this a little MODEL CHAOS for Tuesday, those are always fun!

Here’s a look at two completely different outcomes for Tuesday’s weather.

18z NAM-WRF model simulated radar forecast from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday – Rain impacts areas roughly south of a line from about Brainerd to Silver Bay on Tuesday, spreading from SW to NE during the day.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

And here’s the 18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday – One batch of rain passes south of us, then we see scattered showers develop across north-central Minnesota later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

When you blend the computer models together, here’s what they come up with for potential rain totals for Tuesday through early Wednesday.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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Rainfall Reports from around the Northland for Sunday night-Monday morning, April 26-27, 2020.

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Duluth Airport: 0.48″
Saginaw, MN: 0.44″
Orr, MN: 0.41″
Siren, WI: 0.39″
Bigfork, MN: 0.37″
Barnes, WI: 0.37″
Hayward, WI: 0.35″
Ely, MN: 0.34″
McGregor, MN: 0.33″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.32″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.31″
Isabella, MN: 0.30″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.30″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.27″
Superior Airport: 0.27″
Kabetogama, MN: 0.26″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.26″
Minong, WI: 0.24″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.23″
Glidden, WI: 0.23″
Hinckley, MN: 0.22″
International Falls, MN: 0.21″
Ashland, WI: 0.21″
Washburn, WI: 0.20″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.20″
Littlefork, MN: 0.20″
Walker, MN: 0.20″
Pine River, MN: 0.17″
Brainerd, MN: 0.17″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.15″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.14″

System which brought rain to the Northland earlier today is getting sheared apart this afternoon as most of the energy heads NE into Hudson Bay.

Off to our west is the next system, but this one will drop southeast once it reaches the Northern Plains.

Water vapor loop from today, Monday, April 27, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle possible near Lake Superior. Low 34 to 38. Wind east to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy with some rain possible especially from late morning through the afternoon. Patchy fog and drizzle. High 40 to 45. Wind northeast 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts possible.

.Wednesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind north to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 28

High 56
Low 35

Sunrise Tuesday 5:58 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday 8:16 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Some rain late tonight/Monday morning; mild and dry Monday afternoon (cooler near Lake Superior)

-Some rain will move across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later tonight/early Monday morning, but this rain will exit quickly off to the east by mid-morning Monday. Rainfall totals for this event look to be in that 0.10 to 0.25″ range in most of the area, but the pattern has been a dry one lately, especially near Lake Superior, so it wouldn’t surprise me if rain totals end up a little lower near Lake Superior.

-Monday afternoon looks mainly dry in the Northland with mild temperatures as highs climb into the middle 60s to lower 70s, but it will remain cooler closer to Lake Superior as light east winds continue, but there is a chance that west winds become strong enough for roughly 6 hours Monday afternoon-early Monday evening causing temperatures to warm into the 60s even for locations below the hill in Duluth, but that chance is quite low, it is late April after all.

Here’s a look at the simulated radar forecast valid from 7 this evening to 7 PM Monday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 4.26.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

A look at our approaching system for late tonight on Goes-16 imagery.

Visible image below, and the water vapor image below that.

Its a strong system right now, and it should maintain its strength as it moves over the Northland late tonight, so we should be able to get some rain, problem is this system is moving through quickly which will limit the amount of rain we get.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Water vapor imagery

The last 3 weeks have been quite dry in most of the Northland, check out how much precipitation we’ve seen and the departure from normal for the period April 5 through April 25, 2020.

Brainerd: 0.76″ (-0.84″ below normal)

Duluth: 0.25″ (-1.44″ below normal)

International Falls: 0.08″ (-0.95″ below normal)

Two Harbors: 0.06″ (-1.73″ below normal)

-International Falls has had only 2-5% of its normal precipitation so far this month while in Duluth precip totals so far this month are running 10-25% of normal.

-Precipitation totals so far this month have been a little higher in other parts of the Northland, but are still running below average. Grand Marais, Brainerd, Hinckley and Ashland have had 25-50% of its normal precipitation so far this month, while Hayward has had 50-75% of its normal precipitation.

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

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Looking at another chance for rain on Tuesday, but there continues to be uncertainty with the track of this next low and how much rain it brings to the Northland. Stay tuned.

Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average this week across the Northland, but as is usually the case in spring, temperatures near Lake Superior will be highly dependent on wind direction. It looks like will have several days this week with east winds meaning it will be much cooler by Lake Superior, but maybe, just maybe will squeeze out 2 days this week with offshore winds (warmer temps) near the lake, will see.

Note: Normal highs in the Northland on April 27th range from the mid to upper 50s with normal lows in the low to mid 30s. Normal highs on May 2nd range from the upper 50s to around 60 degrees with normal lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.26.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

A cooler weather pattern is possible for the 1st full week of May.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.26.2020

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for April 19 to April 25, 2020

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

4.19: 44 F/-7 degrees below normal
4.20: 48 F/-4 degrees below normal
4.21: 41 F/-11 degrees below normal
4.22: 42 F/-11 degrees below normal
4.23: 46 F/-7 degrees below normal
4.24: 64 F/+10 degrees above normal
4.25: 55 F/+1 degree above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

4.19: 27 F/-5 degrees below normal
4.20: 27 F/-5 degrees below normal
4.21: 21 F/-11 degrees below normal
4.22: 29 F/-4 degrees below normal
4.23: 29 F/-4 degrees below normal
4.24: 29 F/-5 degrees below normal
4.25: 31 F/-3 degrees below normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth for the week of April 19, 2020: 38.1 degrees; -4.7 degrees below normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total precipitation: 0.01″
Normal: 0.61″
Departure: -0.60″ below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of April 19, 2020

Temperature: 44.1 degrees
Departure: -2.8 degrees below normal

Precipitation: 0.05″
Departure: -0.60″ below normal

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of April 19, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of April 19, 2020.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Increasing cloudiness. Some rain mainly after 3 AM. Low 34 to 38. Wind east 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday… Rain ending before 8 AM. Mostly cloudy with afternoon clearing. Mild. High 64 to 69 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 5 to 15 mph becoming west 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Breezy and cooler. Mostly cloudy. Some light rain possible late. High 40 to 45. Wind northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 27

High 55
Low 35

Sunrise Monday 5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Monday 8:14 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim