Update on Monday’s shower/t-storm potential

Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday, mainly during the morning and afternoon.

Higher instability (mostly elevated CAPE) will advect eastward into the Northland on Monday while a warm front moves ENE out of western Minnesota. Lift associated with the advancing warm frontal boundary, combined with warmer and more humid air advecting into the Northland should be enough to produce isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Note: The threat for severe thunderstorms is on the low side on Monday with a Marginal or Level 1 risk for an isolated severe thunderstorm with wind and hail being the main threats along with lightning and downpours which will occur in any thunderstorm.

Source: 12z European model 5.31.2020; https://weathermodels.com

Not looking at a whole lot of rain or widespread rains on Monday with rainfall totals generally in the trace to quarter inch range, but where thunderstorms occur heavier rainfall totals will be possible.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Here’s a look at the simulated radar forecast for Monday (7 AM to 7 PM)

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 5.31.2020; https://weathermodels.com

A dry air mass currently over the Northland this afternoon will be replaced by somewhat more humid conditions by Monday afternoon as dew points climb into the 50s and lower 60s, but this more humid air mass won’t stick around long as drier air moves back in come Tuesday.

A rather large temperature contrast appears to be setting up Monday afternoon with a very warm to hot air mass covering western portions of Minnesota while cooler weather will be found in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Note: Near 80 degree temps should return in Duluth on Tuesday as winds shift from east on Monday to west on Tuesday.

A look back at last week’s weather in Duluth, Minnesota

May 24th to May 30th, 2020

Warmest temperature: 81 degrees on the 27th
Coldest temperature: 40 degrees on the 30th

Average temperature for the week of May 24th: 61.3 degrees; +6.8 degrees above normal.

Total precipitation: 0.40″
Normal: 0.76″
Departure: -0.36″ below normal

2 days had at least 0.01″ of precipitation

Another chilly morning across the Northland, check out some of these low temperature reports from Sunday morning, May 31, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hibbing, MN: 27F

Silver Bay Airport: 28F

Pine River, MN: 28F

2 E Celina, MN: 28F

Aitkin, MN: 28F

3 E Wright, MN: 29F

Crane Lake, MN: 30F

Eveleth, MN: 30F

Bigfork, MN: 30F

Solon Springs, WI: 30F

Cotton, MN: 30F

Walker, MN: 31F

Embarrass, MN: 31F

Longville, MN: 32F

Moose Lake, MN: 32F

Winter, WI: 32F

Hayward, WI: 33F

Superior Airport: 33F

Brainerd, MN: 34F

International Falls, MN: 34F

Hinckley, MN: 34F

McGregor, MN: 34F

Babbitt, MN: 34F

3 E Orr, MN: 34F

4 W Clam Lake, WI: 34F

Ashland, WI: 35F

Note: Hibbing, Minnesota tied their record low temperature for May 31st with a low this morning of 27 degrees, this ties the record low temperature for the date which was set in 2009. Hibbing also tied their record low temperature on May 30th, 2020.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Frost Advisory issued for parts of the Northland tonight; keeping an eye on thunder chances for Monday

Sunday morning will start out a little chilly once again with morning lows in the 30s and 40s, and there is a chance for patchy frost once again in parts of the Northland early Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon temps are forecast to warm to the middle 60s to low-mid 70s with a SW breeze. Note: 80 degree temps could return in Duluth on Tuesday.

Record Low Temperature for May 30th tied this morning at Hibbing, Minnesota with a low temperature of 30 degrees, this ties the record low for today’s date which was last set in 2001, and prior to that in 1996 and 1990.

Low Temperature reports from around the Northland from Saturday morning, May 30, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hibbing, MN: 30F

Silver Bay, MN: 30F

3 E Wright, MN: 33F

2 E Celina, MN: 33F

Cotton, MN: 34F

International Falls, MN: 36F

Cook, MN: 36F

Bigfork, MN: 36F

Walker, MN: 36F

3 E Orr, MN: 36F

Grand Marais, MN: 37F

Floodwood, MN: 37F

Aitkin, MN: 37F

Grand Rapids, MN: 38F

Scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms are possible across the Northland on Monday.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (Level 1 risk) on Monday for portions of northeast and east-central Minnesota, and for all of northwest Wisconsin (dark green area on map) Note: Large hail to 1″ in diameter (quarter size) is the main severe weather hazard for Monday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com

Warm front moving east out of the Northern Plains on Monday could help generate a few showers and thunderstorms in the Northland thanks to increasing amounts of mostly elevated CAPE (instability)

Kind of an unusual spot to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in late May, but portions of Washington and Oregon are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through early this Saturday evening.

The Northland is currently under a pleasantly cool NW flow aloft, but by Monday will begin to get more of a WNW flow aloft across our area as the ridge over the southwest US builds further N-NE next week.

Temperatures this Saturday afternoon range from around 30 degrees on the east shores of Hudson Bay Canada to 105 degrees at Phoenix, Arizona.

There are signs showing up in the long range computer models for a wetter pattern to setup across the upper Midwest starting ~June 6th, will see if this actually does happen though. A dry pattern like much of the Northland has been in for months can be hard to break out of.

The forecast below shows total precipitation amounts through June 14th, 2020.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 5.30.2020; https://weathermodels.com

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Rainfall Reports from May 26, 2020

Rainfall Reports from around the Northland from Tuesday, May 26, 2020 through Wednesday morning, May 27, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

2 E Lake Nebagamon, WI: 3.50″

2 WNW Seeley, WI: 2.68″

8 WNW Minong, WI: 2.60″

3 SE Duxbury, MN: 2.56″

1 W Solon Springs, WI: 2.53″

6 SW Webb Lake, WI: 2.49″

1 S Oulu, WI: 2.37″

3 S Ashland, WI: 2.25″

Ashland, WI: 2.13″

5 WNW Washburn, WI: 2.12″

1 SE Bayfield, WI: 2.10″

1 E of Clam Lake, WI: 2.10″

Danbury, WI: 2.04″

2 NNW Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 1.88″

Hurley, WI: 1.65″

5 S Herbster, WI: 1.60″

Poplar, WI: 1.44″

1.8 NE Duluth, MN: 1.24″

10 W Gunflint Lake, MN: 1.19″

Superior, WI: 1.15″

8.6 NE Silver Bay, MN: 1.15″

4 W Clam Lake, WI: 1.11″

Northome, MN: 1.02″

Two Harbors, MN: 0.96″

Winton, MN: 0.90″

Bruno, MN: 0.88″

Cass Lake, MN: 0.86″

25 E Ely, MN: 0.84″

12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 0.75″

4.4 W Grand Marais, MN: 0.74″

3 E Wright, MN: 0.53″

Cotton, MN: 0.52″

Walker, MN: 0.50″

International Falls, MN: 0.47″

Grand Rapids, MN: 0.41″

Ely, MN: 0.41″

Deer River, MN: 0.40″

Duluth Airport: 0.39″

3 E Orr, MN: 0.27″

3 NE Brainerd, MN: 0.26″

Cook, MN: 0.22″

Embarrass, MN: 0.22″

Floodwood, MN: 0.20″

May 2020 Precipitation Totals (thru the 26th)

Ashland, WI: 2.17″ (-0.43″ below normal)

International Falls, MN: 1.07″ (-1.26″ below normal)

Duluth, MN: 0.86″ (-1.82″ below normal)

Hibbing, MN: 0.82″ (-1.28″ below normal)

Brainerd, MN: 0.80″ (-2.01″ below normal)

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu

The rain we got in the Northland on Tuesday was much needed, but unfortunately it still wasn’t enough to tilt us above normal for the month, at least in much of northern and northeastern Minnesota.

Precipitation totals so far this month are running just 25% of normal in much of north-central and northeast Minnesota, but in the Arrowhead only 10% of normal.

Northwest Wisconsin has fared better as of late with precipitation totals for May 2020 running 50-75% of normal.

With no rain in the forecast for the rest of this month, May 2020 should finish in the top 10 driest on record at the following locations in the Northland.

Duluth (tied for 5th driest May on record)

Brainerd (6th driest May on record)

Hibbing (6th driest May on record)

Note: Ashland, Wisconsin was having its driest May on record up until a few days ago, and now May 2020 won’t even rank in the top 20 driest on record.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Flash Flood Watch issued for parts of the Northland for tonight

There is a potential for heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding in northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota tonight, for this reason the National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Flash Flood Watch which is in effect from 7 PM this evening through Wednesday morning for the green shaded area on the map below.

Some cities included in the flash flood watch are…

Floodwood, Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Hinckley, Pine City, Superior, Solon Springs, Siren, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, Minong, Shell Lake, Glidden and Hayward.

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

Note: I think the greatest risk for heavy rain and possible flooding for tonight will be centered over northwest Wisconsin, extending southwest into far eastern Minnesota (generally east of that yellow line on the map below) this is based off some of the latest model data, and radar trends this afternoon.

Seems to be two distinct zones where rain occurs tonight.

The first area is mostly light to moderate rainfall which is ongoing late this afternoon across northern Minnesota, this area of rain is moving northeast.

The second area is centered over far eastern Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin (yellow outlined area on map) This area could see several waves of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall tonight as activity lifts north-northeast.

What happens between the rain in northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin remains to be seen. We could see additional rain develop, or we may not see much rain at all, unfortunately this zone will be right over Duluth and Superior tonight.

Note: Duluth, Minnesota has only had 0.54″ of rain so far this month, in fact May 2020 ranks as the 2nd driest May on record (thru the 25th) in Duluth. The driest May on record for Duluth was set in 1976 with 0.15″ of precipitation.

A steady mostly light rain has been falling much of the day across northern Minnesota with rainfall amounts of generally a quarter inch or less through 4 PM Tuesday.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Heavy Rain and a few Strong to Severe T-Storms possible late this afternoon and evening for eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A cold front will move slowly east out of western Minnesota through tonight. A warm and humid air mass is in place ahead of the cold front while drier air was found behind the cold front.

As the cold front moves east it will interact with the warm and humid air, while lift increases due to the approaching cold front, and also from areas of low pressure which will ride N-NE along the cold front, all of this should lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon through tonight from northeast and eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

Here’s a look at how things could play out later today per 12z HRRR model run.

Note: The main time frame for stronger thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin looks to be from around 5 PM to 10 PM today.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

No shortage of atmospheric moisture today as dew points are in the muggy 60s while PWATS (precipitable water) range from 1.30 to 1.80″. Note: There will be torrential downpours where thunderstorms occur through tonight.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, May 26, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

There is a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Northland late this afternoon into this evening – The areas most at risk in the Northland include southern portions of the area from eastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin.

Stay Weather Aware today and this evening!

Severe weather hazards for late this afternoon include

-Isolated Tornadoes

-Damaging Wind Gusts 58 mph or stronger

-Large Hail 1″ diameter or quarter size

8 AM update from the Storm Prediction Center

There is some slight turning of winds with height late this afternoon and this evening over southern portions of the Northland with more of a southerly wind near the surface, while higher up in the atmosphere winds veer more out of the southwest – This change of wind direction with height may cause a few thunderstorms to rotate late this afternoon into early this evening inside the yellow outlined area on map.

Heavy rain is possible late this afternoon and tonight from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible if thunderstorms move over the same location for a few hours.

Lesser amounts of rain across northern Minnesota, generally in the quarter to half inch range.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

A good thing to know now that we’re in our severe weather season in the Northland is what County do you live in, and what part of the County do you live in – Today’s severe weather risk area is focused from portions of Carlton and Pine County Minnesota, east to Douglas, Bayfield, Burnett, Washburn, Ashland and Sawyer County in Wisconsin.

Thanks for reading!

Tim