Wind Advisory issued for all of northeast Minnesota through Sunday morning

A wind advisory has been issued for all of northeast Minnesota and a small part of northwest Wisconsin – This advisory is in effect tonight through Sunday morning and includes the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, McGregor, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Superior and Solon Springs.

Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected in the advisory area. Wind gusts as high as 60 mph are possible on the Bong and Blatnik bridges between Duluth and Superior.

Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Advertisements

Water vapor loop from today shows a powerful low pressure system moving quickly east into Ontario.

On the southern flank of this low is a strong vort max which shows up as yellow colors on the animation below. This vort max is moving east and will move over the Northland tonight into Sunday morning.

Note: Some of the strongest wind gusts today have been occurring near this vort max, with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph reported at times today across North Dakota. As this vort max moves over the Northland tonight it will combine with strong cold air advection to produce another round of strong winds, this time out of the northwest.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Lake effect snow is forecast to develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior late tonight and will continue into Sunday morning.

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 1 AM to Noon Sunday including Upson, Gile and Hurley. Snowfall accumulations of up to 4 inches are possible in the advisory area.

Winds gusting as high as 45 mph may reduce visibility to less than one-half mile at times. Plan on slippery road conditions.

A few snow showers are also expected across northern and northeastern Minnesota tonight with a coating to around an inch of snow possible.

The other big story tonight will be the return of colder temperatures which will stick around into Sunday.

Mid to upper 40s in Duluth today, Saturday, October 31st, warmest day we’ve seen in Duluth since October 14th (high of 49 degrees)

Note: Highs on Sunday will only be in the low to mid 30s across the Northland.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Windy weather on the way for Halloween with a few rain showers during the day, snow showers at night; much warmer next week (60 degrees?)

Milder but breezy conditions are expected on Halloween (during the day) but this will be replaced with colder temperatures and strong winds for Halloween night all thanks to a strong area of low pressure which passes by to our north on Saturday. Note: Gale and Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Lake Superior for Saturday into Sunday with a west to northwest gale event possible. This will be an offshore wind direction so the largest waves will be east of the Twin Ports and North Shore this weekend.

A shot of warmer air on southwesterly winds will occur ahead of this system on Saturday, and then will see winds shift to the northwest which will usher in a colder air mass Saturday night.

Highs on Saturday are expected to be in 40s, but a few locations may get into the lower 50s! Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts >30 mph.

Lows Saturday night will be in the 10s and 20s with winds shifting to the northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts >40 mph.

Note: Not looking at a whole lot of rain on Saturday, just a few passing showers. As for snowfall totals, not much, maybe up to an inch of snow Saturday night across northern Minnesota, but higher totals of 1 to 4 inches are possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning due to some lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior mainly around the Gile, Upson and Hurley areas west toward Mellen.

18z NAM 3km radar forecast valid 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Our system for Saturday is a strong one, a lot of energy with it, but not much moisture so precipitation should remain light and spotty as this system moves across the Northland.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, October 30, 2020.

Note: Loop time ends 4:20 PM Friday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A brief surge of warmer air currently over the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains this Friday afternoon will move quickly east and over the Northland Saturday morning, and then will see another brief surge of cold air move in Saturday night into Sunday.

Halloween Climate Stats for Duluth, Minnesota
Period: 1874 to 2019

Warmest: 74 degrees in 1950
Coldest: 8 degrees in 1878

Wettest: 1.09″ in 1929
Snowiest: 4.2″ in 1991
Greatest snow depth: 4″ in 2017 and 1951

Halloween Climate Stats from 2000-2019

Warmest: 60 degrees in 2000
Coldest: 18 degrees in 2002
Wettest: 0.13″ in 2013
Snowiest: Trace in multiple years including 2019, 2009, 2007, 2006 and 2003
Advertisements

Although temperatures are still below normal this afternoon, it really wasn’t too bad today as highs topped out in the mid 30s to low 40s (roughly 5 to 10 degrees below normal on October 30th)

The Northland saw quite a bit of sunshine today, but an area of clouds has been moving NNE across parts of north-central and eastern Minnesota today.

Goes-16 visible satellite image from Friday, October 30, 2020.

Note: Loop time ends ~4:30 PM.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Everything remains on track for a big time warm up across the Northland next week, with a few days likely having highs in the 50s and possibly even a few 60s!

Next week is also looking mainly dry at this time.

Note: There are signs showing up in model guidance for a colder/wetter pattern developing after November 7th.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Below normal temps continue tonight and Friday; windy Halloween with some snow showers/flurries at night

System for tonight has trended weaker and as a result it doesn’t look like there will be much snow in western/southern portions of the Northland. Still can’t rule out a little snow for the Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd Lakes areas tonight, but accumulations wouldn’t be much more than a few tenths of an inch. The rest of the Northland is expected to stay dry tonight. Low temperatures will be in the 10s and 20s.

Radar image from late Thursday afternoon does show some light snow (blue and purple colors) and rain (green colors) moving east-southeast out of North Dakota, and some of this precipitation, mainly in the form of light snow could reach southwest portions of the Northland later tonight (white outlined area on map)

Looks dry on Friday with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees with southerly winds 5 to 15 mph.

Windier weather ahead for Halloween as a strong area of low pressure passes by to our north. A cold front attached to this low moves across the Northland on Saturday with warm air advection to start the day followed by strong cold air advection Saturday night. For example, 850mb temps at Duluth will go from around +6C at 7 AM Saturday, to around -12C late Saturday night, with this type of air mass change we can expect periods of windy weather on Saturday, with southwest winds ahead of the cold front, shifting NW behind the cold front. Note: There is potential for wind gusts >30 mph across the Northland especially Saturday evening and into the overnight.

Will also see a few rain showers pass through parts of the Northland during the day Saturday, and then as colder air moves in Saturday night some snow showers and flurries are likely, but little accumulation is expected the way it looks now.

Highs for Halloween look to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, and then trending briefly colder Sunday with highs mainly in the 30s.

Advertisements

An overcast morning in the Twin Ports gave way to quite a bit of sunshine this afternoon which is always nice to see at this time of the year as it can be difficult for skies to clear as we head deeper into fall.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from today, Thursday, October 29, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A chilly air mass remains over the Northland tonight with only a slight moderation expected on Friday, but a bubble of warmer air (yellow outlined area) will pass quickly over the Northland Saturday morning, and this is when some parts of the area could see their temperatures get into the 40s!

Pattern for next week still looks like a ‘warm’ one for the Northland with a few days having high temperatures in the 50s, and maybe even a few 60s.

At the moment the warmest period looks to be around the middle of next week (~November 3-5) but another surge of warmer air is possible for next weekend (November 7-8)

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Cold air gets pushed well to the north next week thanks to a westerly flow aloft which pumps warmer temperatures our way as we kick off the month of November, enjoy!

Looks pretty dry around here at least thru late next week, but there are signs showing up in model guidance for a more active pattern to setup ~November 7th.

File this under something you don’t see every day – A severe thunderstorm warning issued for “severe tropical showers” for portions of North Carolina and Virginia earlier today.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

A few flurries possible tonight; cold Thursday with a little light snow possible late

Another cold day ahead on Thursday as highs will only be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, and Friday won’t be much warmer either as highs will generally be in the 30s.

A brief spike in temps is possible Saturday which could get us into the 40s in parts of the Northland, but this won’t last as cold air returns again for Sunday, but there continues to be strong signals showing up in model guidance of a longer lasting warm up for next week which could send temperatures into the 50s on a few days next week.

Not a whole lot of precipitation through the weekend, but we could see a few flurries/snow showers in spots tonight, and along the South Shore of Lake Superior Thursday due to some lake effect. Then, Thursday night into early Friday morning could feature an area of light snow pushing from NW-SE through western and southern portions of the Northland with an inch or less of snow accumulation possible.

18z NAM 3km radar forecast from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Advertisements

Temperatures were warmer across southern portions of the Northland today with low to mid 40s, but this is still slightly below normal for late October, but temperatures across northern Minnesota were even colder and generally in the low to mid 30s today.

Note: Duluth finally made it above freezing today, Wednesday, October 28th, first time above freezing since Friday, October 23rd.

There was a nice burst of snow from about mid-morning to early this afternoon across far northern Minnesota (mostly north of the Iron Range) with a couple reports of 2 to 3 inches of snow today from Kabetogama to Buyck to the Winton and Ely areas. Temperatures were warmer further south where precipitation was mostly rain today, although I did get a report of freezing rain in the Hibbing area late this morning from a Facebook friend.

Note: Duluth Airport picked up 0.04″ of rain today.

Radar loop from Wednesday, October 28, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Temperatures were considerably warmer this morning compared to Tuesday morning across much of the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

The average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota from October 1 to October 27, 2020: 38.9 degrees (-5.1 degrees below normal)

Note: October 2020 currently ranks as the 7th coldest October on record at Duluth, and with only a few days left to go in the month we could see this ranking change a bit.

It’s been over two weeks since we last had an above average temperature at Duluth (October 13th)

18 days or 67% of days this month have been below average, while 9 days or 33% of days have been above average at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here is the daily average temperature departure at Duluth, Minnesota for October 2020 (thru the 27th)

Blue=Below average

Red=Above average

Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

Advertisements

Hurricane Zeta making landfall this evening in southeastern Louisiana while a strong upper level low which has brought significant ice accumulations to parts of Oklahoma and Texas the last few days heads east.

Zeta moving NE into Louisiana late this afternoon while a strong trough moves ENE out of the Southern Plains per water vapor loop. Eventually will see these systems merge as they head into the northeast US late Thursday into Friday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Blustery! A few flurries tonight; areas of light snow/rain (patchy ice?) possible Wednesday morning

There is a chance for a little snow, rain or a wintry mix of precipitation across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday morning as warmer air pushes east into our area while low pressure passes by to our north. We’re not looking at any widespread or significant amounts of precipitation out of this system, but there could be just enough frozen precipitation to produce some slippery road conditions in spots for a time Wednesday morning before temperatures warm above freezing Wednesday afternoon.

18z NAM 3km radar forecast thru 7 PM Wednesday.

Note: Snow in blue, mixed precip in pink, snow in blue on the animation below.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Up and down temperatures sums up the rest of this week. After a very cold start to the week, temperatures will moderate on Wednesday, but will cool down again on Thursday before we see another brief warmup on Saturday which will be followed by another brief cool down for Sunday. Note: There is a chance we could see a longer stretch of milder temperatures next week with 3-4 days in a row having highs of 50 degrees or warmer, but that’s still a ways off and could certainly change in the next few days.

Keep in mind that our normal highs in late October are in the mid to upper 40s, so although temperatures will be milder on Wednesday, they will still be a little below normal for this time of the year, but certainly closer to normal compared to where they have been over the past week or so.

Here is the high temperature forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next few days.

Wednesday (October 28th) Mid 30s to Mid 40s.

Thursday (October 29th) Mainly in the 30s.

Friday (October 30th) 30s to lower 40s.

Advertisements

Widespread 40s and 50s this afternoon from Montana to North Dakota, north to Saskatchewan and Alberta, this air mass will move over the Northland on Wednesday, but I don’t think will see any 50s in our area, but some locations should get into the 40s!

Temperatures are running anywhere from 15 to 30 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to Monday afternoon in the yellow outlined area on map.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Average temperature, departure from normal across the Northland from October 19th to October 26th, 2020.

Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Babbitt, MN: 23.0 degrees; -15.0 degrees below normal.

Hibbing, MN: 24.2 degrees; -14.0 degrees below normal.

International Falls, MN: 26.2 degrees; -12.3 degrees below normal.

Cass Lake, MN: 26.4 degrees; -13.4 degrees below normal.

Brainerd, MN: 28.2 degrees; -13.3 degrees below normal.

Duluth Airport: 28.2 degrees; -12.4 degrees below normal.

Superior, WI: 32.3 degrees; -10.7 degrees below normal.

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

We had freezing temps as far south as San Angelo, Texas Tuesday morning, while a record low of 32 degrees was reported at Tucson, Arizona!

What a cold snap for so early in the season.

All those blue dots on the animation below represent stations which broke, tied or came within 3 degrees of tying their record low temperature over the past 24 hours (ending 10 AM Tuesday, October 27th, 2020)

Source: http://coolwx.com/

Low Temperature Reports from Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Glidden, WI: 4 F
Clam Lake, WI: 4 F
Solon Springs, WI: 7 F
Hurley, WI: 7 F
3 N Butternut, WI: 8 F
Saginaw, MN: 8 F
Cotton, MN: 9 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 9 F
Hayward, WI: 9 F
Aurora, MN: 10 F
Isabella, MN: 10 F
Hinckley, MN: 10 F
Pine River, MN: 10 F
Minong, WI: 10 F
Moose Lake, MN: 12 F
Eveleth, MN: 11 F
Hermantown, MN: 11 F
Cook, MN: 12 F
Esko, MN: 12 F
Cloquet, MN: 12 F
Brainerd, MN: 12 F
Longville, MN: 12 F
Bigfork, MN: 12 F
Hill City, MN: 12 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 12 F
Two Harbors, MN: 12 F
International Falls, MN: 13 F
Superior Airport: 13 F
Siren, WI: 13 F
Duluth Airport: 13 F
Grand Marais Airport: 14 F
Cass Lake, MN: 14 F
Walker, MN: 14 F
South Range, WI: 14 F
Ashland, WI: 14 F
Washburn, WI: 14 F
Babbitt, MN: 14 F
Embarrass, MN: 14 F
Ely, MN: 14 F
Aitkin, MN: 14 F
Danbury, WI: 17 F
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 18 F
McGregor, MN: 18 F

…Record Cold in the Northland on Monday, October 26th, 2020…

Ashland, Wisconsin – Record Low Maximum Temperature set for October 26th with a high on Monday of 30 degrees, this breaks the previous record of 32 degrees set in 1919.

Hibbing, Minnesota – Record Low Maximum Temperature set for October 26th with a high on Monday of 26 degrees, this breaks the previous record of 30 degrees set in 1942.

Advertisements

4 PM NHC Update – Tropical Storm Zeta was located about 450 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Zeta is currently moving off to the northwest at 14 mph but is forecast to turn north to even north-northeast later tonight and Wednesday.

Zeta is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane tonight, and a landfall somewhere over southeastern Louisiana is expected by Wednesday evening.

A winter storm across the southern Plains heads east which will help pull Zeta on a more north to north-northeast track over the next 24 hours.

Here’s a water vapor loop from Tuesday, October 27th, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

This is pretty crazy! A rather short distance between where snow and ice is occurring to where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim