Turning hot and humid late this week into next week with record/near record warmth possible; a few shower/t-storm chances ahead but overall a dry pattern into early next week

…Late Week Heat Wave…

Very warm to hot temperatures will move into the Northland late this week and could stick around through at least early next week the way it looks now. Daytime highs from June 4th through June 7th are forecast to range from around 85 to 93 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s. Note: Record to near record warmth is likely in the Northland from June 4th through June 7th, with both record high and record warm low temperature records possibly being broken during that aforementioned time frame.

Overall this week is looking pretty dry in our area, but we do have a chance to see a few showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, possibly lingering into Thursday, but coverage of that activity looks fairly isolated at the moment.

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There continues to be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in parts of far northwest Wisconsin and along portions of the North Shore in northeastern Minnesota with movement of this activity generally to the south/east. No severe weather is expected in our area thru early this evening, but brief downpours and occasional lightning will be found in and near any thunderstorm. Note: These isolated showers will dissipate through the evening hours with mainly dry weather expected for Tuesday with highs on Tuesday mainly in the 70s, not a bad way to open the month of June and Meteorological summer 2021 (The 3 month period of June, July and August).

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Will see an upper level ridge of high pressure which initially will be over the Rockies redevelop farther east into the Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend into early next week. This should be a very warm pattern for the Northland with little to no lake cooling expected as we should have a strong enough southwesterly wind to keep the cool lake air from coming inland from Friday through Monday.

Here’s a look at the 500mb anomaly forecast valid from June 4th through June 7th, 2021.

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Some parts of the Northland were hit by one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and or Sunday night, those storms brought with them frequent lightning along with heavy rainfall, along with some gusty winds and a few reports of sub-severe hail (mostly in the 0.25 inch to 0.75 inch diameter range)

Here’s a look at radar estimated rainfall totals from Sunday’s thunderstorms.

Note: The yellow outlined areas saw some impressive rainfall totals Sunday with amounts of up to 2 inches!

…Rainfall Totals from Sunday, May 30, 2021 to 9 AM Monday, May 31, 2021

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 3.8 S Swan River, MN: 1.59″
  • Aurora, MN: 1.21″
  • Skibo, MN: 1.09″
  • Embarrass, MN: 0.94″
  • 6.5 SE Duquette, MN: 0.89″
  • 0.5 E Floodwood, MN: 0.77″
  • Cook, MN: 0.57″
  • 3.4 ENE Cloquet, MN: 0.53″
  • 3 E Wright, MN: 0.52″
  • Esko, MN: 0.51″
  • Libby, MN: 0.49″
  • Poplar, WI: 0.45″
  • Babbitt, MN: 0.44″
  • Siren, WI: 0.44″
  • South Range, WI: 0.41″
  • Isabella, MN: 0.41″
  • Duluth Airport: 0.38″
  • Minong, WI: 0.38″
  • Saginaw, MN: 0.35″
  • Barnes, WI: 0.32″
  • Hibbing, MN: 0.32″
  • French River, MN: 0.31″
  • Superior Airport: 0.29″
  • Silver Bay, MN: 0.28″
  • Wrenshall, MN: 0.28″
  • 1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 0.27″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.26″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.23″
  • Cable, WI: 0.22″
  • Lutsen, MN: 0.20″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.15″
  • Danbury, WI: 0.15″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.15″
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 0.13″
  • Cass Lake, MN: 0.07″
  • Deer River, MN: 0.05″
  • Glidden, WI: 0.05″
  • Brainerd, MN: 0.03″
  • Bayfield, WI: 0.02″
  • Walker, MN: 0.02″

Tim

June climate normals and records at Duluth, Minn; Long Range Forecast for June 2021

The Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals and Records for June

Normal high on the 1st: 68 F
Normal high on the 30th: 76 F

Normal low on the 1st: 46 F
Normal low on the 30th: 54 F

Average monthly temperature: 61.2 F
Warmest June on record: 65.5 F set in 1910
Coldest June on record: 53.0 F set in 1917

On average Duluth has 15 days with a high temp of at least 70 F in June

On average Duluth has 5 days with a high temp of at least 80 F in June

Normal Precipitation: 4.39″
Wettest June on record: 10.89″ set in 1879
Driest June on record: 0.11″ set in 1910

Astronomical Data for June

Sunrise on the 1st: 5:17 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 5:17 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 8:55 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 9:06 PM CDT
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CFS model is forecasting above normal temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for the month of June.

CFS model is forecasting above normal precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for the month of June.

Tim

Chilly tonight with record/near record cold possible, frost/freeze warnings in effect; milder temps this weekend into next week; shower chances Sunday-Memorial Day

…Record Cold in the Northland this morning, Friday, May 28th, 2021…

New Record lows set for May 28th

Hibbing, MN: 21 F; old record 27 F set in 2008.

International Falls, MN: 24 F; old record 27 F set in 1947.

Duluth, MN: 30 F; old record 32 F set in 1889, 1947, 1958 and 1965.

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Another night of frost and freeze potential across all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but the good news is that this should be the last real cold night we have around here, possibly until September, but will see how that goes…

  • Temperatures overnight tonight will range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, and a Freeze Warning (light blue) and Frost Advisory (darker blue) are in effect from 1 AM tonight to 9 AM Saturday.
  • Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Note: Record/Near Record Cold is possible again Saturday morning.

…Record Low Temperatures for May 29th…

International Falls, MN: 26 F set in 1952

Ashland, WI: 27 F set in 1984

Hibbing, MN: 27 F set in 1965

Brainerd, MN: 29 F set in 1917

Duluth, MN: 29 F set in 1984

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…A dry May in the Northland…

Total precipitation so far this month has ranged from around a quarter inch at Brainerd, to around 1.50″ at Duluth to over 1.75″ at Ashland.

Precipitation Departures and Percent of Mean for May 2021 thru 4 PM on the 28th

Brainerd, MN: -2.67″ below normal (8% of normal)

International Falls, MN: -2.08″ below normal (23% of normal)

Hibbing, MN: -1.75″ below normal (29% of normal)

Duluth, MN: -1.54″ below normal (49% of normal)

Ashland, WI: -1.26″ below normal (59% of normal)

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  • Saturday is looking mostly dry across the Northland, but there is a chance we could see a few sprinkles or brief showers later in the day, but a better chance for scattered showers arrives late Saturday night and through the day Sunday.
  • Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Sunday afternoon-evening in parts of the area as will have a little bit of instability develop along with colder temperatures aloft over the area.
  • A risk for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms continues for Memorial Day especially in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota, with mainly dry weather expected in northern Minnesota.

Here’s a look at the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM Monday.

Doesn’t look like will see a whole lot of rain through Monday with amounts of only a trace to around 0.20″ possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but locally higher totals are possible if you get underneath a thunderstorm Sunday or Monday.

High temperatures will warm up a bit this weekend in the Twin Ports with highs Saturday and Sunday generally in the low to mid 60s which is still slightly below normal for late May, but quite a bit warmer compared to what we saw for high temps this past Sunday, and again on Thursday.

Note: A much warmer pattern could be setting up next week into next weekend with a shot at 80 degree temps later next week.

Normal highs in Duluth from May 29th to June 7th range from 68 to 70 degrees, with normal lows ranging from 45 to 48 degrees.

Tim

Freeze warning in effect tonight; milder this weekend with a few showers/t-storms Sunday and Memorial Day

A freeze warning is in effect for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday.

…Record/Near Record Cold is possible in the Northland Friday morning…

*Record Low Temperatures for May 28th*

Brainerd: 19 F set in 1917

Ashland: 22 F set in 1917

Hibbing: 27 F set in 2008

International Falls: 27 F set in 1947

Duluth: 32 F set in 1947, 1958 and 1965

Note: Brainerd and Ashland’s records are likely safe tonight, but the other cities listed above could set, tie or get close to their record low temperature Friday morning (May 28th)

…Freeze Warning Information…

  • Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 20 expected (coldest temps inland from Lake Superior)
  • Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

We’re seeing widespread temperature anomalies of 20 to 30 degrees below normal today over a large area from the Northern Plains to the upper Midwest.

Highs Friday will warm up a little bit compared to Thursday’s high temps, but will still be below normal for late May as highs top out in the mid 50s to mid 60s in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but a breezy NE wind will continue near Lake Superior which will help keep temps in the 40s to around 50 degrees for lakeside locations.

Note: Will have highs in the 60s to around 70 Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day, with even warmer temps possibly arriving later next week.

Dry weather is likely Friday and Saturday, but we could see a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday which could linger into Memorial Day depending on how quickly a cold front moves through the area. Widespread rain is not expected in our area Sunday or Monday, but will likely be dodging some showers at times with even a chance for a thunderstorm or two due to a combination of some instability, cold air aloft and warmer air near the surface.

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A well developed system (winter like) continues to move ESE out of the Dakotas this afternoon with severe weather occurring in the warm/unstable air across the Central/Southern Plains while a wind driven rain falls in the colder/more stable air across parts of the upper Midwest today.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, May 27, 2021.

Widespread rain continues well south of the Northland late this afternoon, and with temps only in the upper 30s in parts of central Wisconsin at 4 PM today it’s possible we could see a little snow mix with the rain later tonight (black outlined area on map) as surface temps cool a few more degrees.

MRMS radar loop ending at 5 PM Thursday, May 27, 2021.

Temperatures aloft at ~5000 feet (850mb level) are hovering near the freezing mark or slightly below late this afternoon which could eventually lead to a few snow flakes later tonight in parts of Central Wisconsin if surface temps can fall a couple more degrees tonight.

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Latest drought monitor from May 25th shows abnormally dry (yellow areas on map) conditions expanding across Minnesota once again, with 73% of the state abnormally dry, this is up from 54% last week.

D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange areas on map) conditions have decreased this week, going from 21% last week to 13% this week.

50% of Wisconsin is abnormally dry (yellow) while 24% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) both categories are down slightly this week compared to last week so that’s some good news.

Tim

Frost potential the next few nights; cool and breezy thru Friday; milder this weekend

A cool weather pattern will cover the entire Northland tonight thru Friday, this will be followed by milder temperatures this weekend. Note: Areas of frost are possible in much of the Northland tonight, Thursday night and Friday night, with Thursday night and Friday night holding the greatest chances for a widespread frost over almost all of the Northland.

Highs were about 25 degrees colder today compared to yesterday in Duluth, and will be about 10-15 degrees colder on Thursday compared to Wednesday’s high temperature in Duluth, so yes we’re going the wrong way in the temperature department. High of 83 on Tuesday, 57 today, and around 40-45 on Thursday. A gusty NE wind will also occur in the Twin Ports Thursday and Friday with wind gusts of 20-30 mph likely on Thursday, and around 15-25 mph on Friday.

Will see milder temperatures return to the entire Northland this weekend with highs in the 60s, and possibly even a few 70s if we get enough sunshine. Could see a few scattered showers in the Sunday-Monday time frame as a cold front moves into the upper Midwest, but an all day rain event is not expected this weekend or on Monday the way it looks now.

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Lots of cold air over central Canada today with the southern fringes of this cold air mass affecting the Northland through Friday.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, May 26, 2021 shows a pretty strong system moving east across the Rockies today, this system will move across the Plains on Thursday with widespread rain on the cold side of this system and severe weather farther south in the warmer and more unstable air.

A dry May continues in the Northland – Rainfall departures for May 2021 (thru 4 PM on the 26th)

Brainerd: -2.45″ below normal

International Falls: -1.85″ below normal

Hibbing: -1.54″ below normal

Duluth: -1.30″ below normal

Ashland: -1.03″ below normal

Rain shield associated with Thursday’s system still looks like it will stay mostly south of the Northland, but far southern areas roughly along and south of a line from Pine River and Brainerd east to Hinckley to Hayward could get a little rain at times on Thursday, but the heavier rainfall is expected to stay farther to the south.

Here’s a look at the simulated radar forecast thru 7 AM Friday per 12z NCEP HiRes-FV3 model.

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A severe weather outbreak including a risk for strong tornadoes exists across a large portion of the Central and Southern Plains tonight, with this threat area shifting a little further east on Thursday.

Widespread supercell thunderstorms occurring this afternoon/early evening across the Plains with large damaging hail and tornadoes as seen on Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Wednesday, May 26, 2021.

We’ve got a PDS Tornado Watch in effect until 2 AM Tonight (purple area on image below)

Note: Closing in on two dozen tornado reports so far today (thru 7 PM CT) with tornadoes reported in Nebraska, Kansas and Texas today.

Tim