Long Range Forecast for January 2022

Looks like we may be setting up for a colder than normal January in the Northland per long range computer model forecasts, but on a positive note we see the return of after 5 PM sunsets in Duluth starting on January 25th!

Here are the last 10 model runs from the CFS model for temperatures valid for January 2022.

Blue and purple colors: Below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors: Above normal temperatures

Below normal precipitation is forecast in the Northland for January 2022.

Here are the last 10 model runs from the CFS model for precipitation valid for January 2022.

Green colors: Above normal precipitation
Yellowish colors: Below normal precipitation

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A look at Climate Normals and records at Duluth, Minnesota for the month of January

Average temperature: 11.2 degrees
Warmest January on record: 23.7 degrees set in 2006
Coldest January on record: -7.2 degrees set in 1912

Normal high on the 1st: 21 degrees
Normal high on the 31st: 21 degrees

Normal low on the 1st: 5 degrees
Normal low on the 31st: 2 degrees

On average, Duluth has 14 days in January with a subzero low temperature

Normal precipitation: 0.95″
Wettest January on record: 4.70″ set in 1969
Driest January on record: 0.13″ set in 2018

Normal snowfall: 16.8″
Snowiest January on record: 46.8″ set in 1969
Least snowy January on record: 2.0″ set in 1921

On average, Duluth has 13 days in January with at least 0.1″ snowfall, and 5 days with at least 1.0″ snowfall.

Astronomical data for Duluth, Minnesota for January 2022

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:54 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:33 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st: 4:31 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st: 5:10 PM CST

Tim

A frigid weekend ahead; A brief warmup early next week, more arctic air to follow; A few climate stats for 2021

Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills are likely in the Northland this weekend.

A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening until Noon Saturday for all of northeast, north-central and east-central Minnesota including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Orr, Cook, Crane Lake, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais and Hovland.

IMPACTS

  • Wind chills as low as 45 below zero.
  • The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 6 PM this evening to Noon Saturday for parts of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Superior, Solon Springs, Bayfield, Washburn, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward and Winter.

IMPACTS

  • Wind chills as low as 30 to 35 below zero.
  • The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
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Lots of cold arctic air to our northwest today and will be tapping into this arctic air over the next few days, and likely again during the middle to end of next week.

Overall, the pattern ahead is looking very cold but also a lot less snowy for the Northland as the main storm track shifts farther to our south due to the arctic air penetrating farther to the south.

Dangerously cold wind chills are likely in the Northland tonight into Saturday morning, and again from Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

HRRR model wind chill forecast valid 6 PM this evening to Noon Sunday.

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Lows in the teens and 20s below zero are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight and again Saturday night, with a chance for some 30s below in the typical cold spots.

High temperatures in the single digits below to single digits above zero are expected in the Northland this weekend.

Note: Forecasted high and low temps in our area for Saturday and Sunday are some 20 to 30 degrees below normal for early January

As we close out 2021 let’s take a look at a few stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature for 2021 (thru Dec. 30)
43.1 degrees (5th warmest year on record)

Top 10 warmest years on record at Duluth, Minnesota

1: 48.3F set in 1874
2: 44.4F set in 1931 and 1878
3: 44.0F set in 2012
4: 43.2F set in 1998
5: 43.1F set in 2021
6: 42.8F set in 2006 and 1877
7: 42.7F set in 2016 and 1987
8: 42.4F set in 2015
9: 41.8F set in 2010
10: 41.6F set in 1941

52 days at or above 80 degrees in 2021 at Duluth – 2nd place for the greatest number of 80-degree days in a year. The record is 53 days set in 1988.

Total Precipitation for 2021

25.71″ (-5.47″ below normal)
Note: We did pick up +4.45″ more precipitation in 2021 compared to our total in 2020 (21.26″)

Tim

Snowfall Totals for the December 26-27 Winter Storm

Final Snowfall Amounts across the Northland for the December 26-27, 2021, Winter Storm
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

6 WNW Lake Shore, MN: 18.0″
5 ESE Saint Mathias, MN: 18.0″
2 NE Grand Marais, MN: 17.0″
2 NE Baxter, MN: 16.0″
Pillager, MN: 16.0″
Baxter, MN: 15.0″
Pine River, MN: 14.3″
Pequot Lakes, MN: 14.0″
Finlayson, MN: 14.0″
5 NW Winter, WI: 14.0″
Two Harbors, MN: 13.2″
Lake Nebagamon, WI: 13.0″
Brainerd, MN: 12.5″
4 WNW Sanborn, WI: 12.5″
Cable, WI: 12.0″
6 SE McGrath, MN: 12.0″
Deerwood, MN: 12.0″
Nisswa, MN: 12.0″
Hinckley, MN: 12.0″
Danbury, WI: 12.0″
Webb Lake, WI: 12.0″
Siren, WI: 12.0″
Wascott, WI: 12.0″
Sandstone, MN: 11.5″
Aitkin, MN: 11.5″
Minong, WI: 11.5″
3 WNW Lester Park, MN: 11.0″
2 W Duluth, MN: 11.0″
3 SE Rice Lake, MN: 11.0″
Grand View, WI: 11.0″
Palisade, MN: 10.8″
Esko, MN: 10.5″
Proctor, MN: 10.5″
Breezy Point, MN: 10.5″
Hayward, WI: 10.5″
Webster, WI: 10.0″
Malmo, MN: 10.0″
Pine City, MN: 10.0″
French River, MN: 10.0″
Gordon, WI: 10.0″
Cozy Corner, WI: 10.0″
4 NW Minong, WI: 10.0″
Mason, WI: 9.8″
Trego, WI: 9.5″
1 SW Twig, MN: 9.0″
Grantsburg, WI: 9.0″
Solon Springs, WI: 9.0″
Duluth, MN (Airport) 8.8″
Wrenshall, MN: 8.6″
Sturgeon Lake, MN: 8.5″
Cloquet, MN: 8.5″
Barnum, MN: 8.5″
1 NNW Nashwauk, MN: 8.5″
Mellen, WI: 8.5″
1 NE Grand Rapids, MN: 8.3″
Herbster, WI: 8.0″
Mahtowa, MN: 8.0″
Ashland, WI: 8.0″
Superior, WI: 8.0″
Dairyland, WI: 8.0″
Foxboro, WI: 8.0″
Spooner, WI: 8.0″
Remer, MN: 7.8″
7 WSW Hovland, MN: 7.8″
Federal Dam, MN: 7.5″
Moose Lake, MN: 7.5″
3 NNE Finland, MN: 7.1″
5.1 NNW Bayfield, WI: 7.0″
Washburn, WI: 6.5″
Gile, WI: 6.5″
7 N McGregor, MN: 6.2″
1 W Northome, MN: 6.0″
Butternut, WI: 6.0″
Cornucopia, WI: 6.0″
Carlton, MN: 5.5″
Grand Rapids, MN: 5.0″
Hurley, WI: 5.0″
3 E Payne, MN: 4.3″
Bigfork, MN: 4.0″
International Falls, MN: 3.9″
Keewatin, MN: 3.0″
Virginia, MN: 3.0″
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 2.0″
0.8 NE Chisholm, MN: 1.8″

Tim

Arctic blast through this weekend, warming trend early next week; Some snow possible Friday for eastern MN into parts of northwest WI

A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 6 PM Friday to Noon Saturday for much of the Northland including all of northeast, east-central and north-central Minnesota, and parts of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marias, Superior, Solon Springs, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner and Shell Lake.

IMPACTS

  • Wind chills as low as 40 below zero
  • The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes
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Low temperature forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin valid 12/31/21 – 1/2/22

Friday morning: Around 10 below to 10 above zero.
Saturday and Sunday morning: Teens and 20s below zero with 30s below possible in the typical cold spots.

A regional view of forecasted low temperatures from Friday, December 31, 2021, to Sunday, January 2, 2022

High temperature forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin valid 12/31/21 – 1/2/22.

Friday: Single digits to around 20 (warmest temps in northwest Wisconsin).
Saturday: Single digits below to single digits above zero.
Sunday: Around zero to the single digits above zero.

Note: A warming trend is expected early next week with highs getting back into the teens and 20s, but another shot of arctic air may impact our area later next week.

A regional view of forecasted high temperatures from Friday, December 31, 2021, to Sunday, January 2, 2022.

DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS

Wind chills ranging from around 25 to 45 below zero are expected in northeast, east-central and north-central Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin from late Friday night into Saturday morning, with another round of dangerously cold wind chills likely for Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

HRRR model wind chill forecast valid 6 PM Friday to Noon Saturday

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FRIDAY SNOW CHANCES

We have one more system to contend with this week which may bring a period of snow to parts of the Northland on Friday.

Snow chances on Friday are greatest from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, but there are differences in the computer models on where this band of snow will set up on Friday, with the NAM, HRRR and RAP models showing the snow band a little further north (affecting Duluth), while the Euro and GFS models keep this band of snow further south and away from Duluth. The band of snow that does develop on Friday looks pretty narrow, so any slight shift north or south will mean the difference from getting no snow, to possibly getting a few inches of fluffy snow.

Snow is forecast to spread ENE into east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by mid to late Friday morning (after 8 AM), with snow coming to end from west to east by late Friday afternoon or early Friday evening.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 6 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.

Tim

December 2021 — Wettest on record at Hibbing and a top 10 wettest on record at Brainerd, Duluth and International Falls

December 2021 has been a wet one in the Northland with 4 out of the 5 climate stations likely to have a top 10 wettest December on record, with Hibbing recording their wettest December on record already with 2 days left to go in the month, in fact Hibbing smashed their previous wettest December on record by nearly an inch, that’s incredible, but evidently Ashland didn’t get the memo, as their precipitation total for December 2021 is actually running below normal for the month!

Any additional precipitation that we may get for the rest of this month looks very light and shouldn’t affect the current rankings by much if at all.

Hibbing, Minnesota

Month to date precipitation total: 3.01″ (wettest December on record)
Previous wettest December on record was in 1936 with 2.08″ of precipitation

Brainerd, Minnesota

Month to date precipitation total: 2.34″ (2nd wettest December on record)
Wettest December on record 2.48″ set in 1902

International Falls, Minnesota

Month to date precipitation total: 1.82″ (4th wettest December on record)
Wettest December on record 2.19″ set in 2016

Duluth, Minnesota

Month to date precipitation total: 2.70″ (8th wettest December on record)
Wettest December on record 3.89″ set in 1879

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Total Precipitation for December 2021 (thru the 28th)

Precipitation totals, departure and percent of normal for December 2021 (thru the 28th)

Hibbing, MN

Total Precipitation: 3.01″
Departure: +2.43″ above normal
519% of normal

Brainerd, MN

Total Precipitation: 2.34″
Departure: +1.84″ above normal
468% of normal

Duluth, MN

Total Precipitation: 2.70″
Departure: +1.36″ above normal
201% of normal

International Falls, MN

Total Precipitation: 1.82″
Departure: +0.92″ above normal
202% of normal

Ashland, WI

Total Precipitation: 0.72″
Departure: -0.19″ below normal
79% of normal

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Although snowfall totals this month are running well above normal at Duluth and International Falls, it still doesn’t rank in the top 10 snowiest Decembers on record.

Snowfall Totals for December 2021 (thru the 28th)

Duluth, MN

Total: 25.6″
Normal: 16.9″
Departure: +8.7″ above normal
151% of normal

International Falls, MN

Total: 20.6″
Normal: 14.3″
Departure: +6.3″ above normal
144% of normal

Tim