Long Range Forecast for July 2022

5:52 PM Thursday, June 30, 2022

Persistent ridging over the Southwest US into parts of the southern Plains and Rockies with a trough centered north of the Great Lakes is expected during the month of July with some brief changes to this pattern likely at times throughout the month.

This 500mb pattern favors near normal to slightly below normal temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with near normal to below normal rainfall.

Brief shots of potentially hot weather may occur in the Northland during the month of July, but if we do get any surges of heat they shouldn’t stick around very long.

Lake Superior continues to run cooler than average by ~6 degrees for this time of year, and this may play more of a role in keeping temperatures cooler than they typically are in July near Lake Superior whenever the wind is out of the east for the North Shore and in Duluth, and when the wind is coming out of the north or northwest for the South Shore.

500mb trend for July 2022 per last 10 CFS model runs.

July Climate Averages and Records for Duluth, Minnesota

Normal high on the 1st: 76
Normal high on the 31st: 78

Normal low on the 1st: 54
Normal low on the 31st: 57

Average monthly temperature: 67.0 degrees

Warmest July on record: 71.9 degrees set in 2006
Coldest July on record: 59.4 degrees set in 1992

On average there are 12 days in July with a maximum temperature of 80 degrees or warmer (record is 25 days set in 2012)

On average there is 1 day in July with a maximum temperature of 90 degrees or warmer (record is 9 days set in 1936)

Rainfall: 3.92″

Wettest July on record: 10.83″ set in 1909
Driest July on record: 0.47″ set in 1875

Astronomical Data for July

Sunrise on the 1st: 5:18 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 5:47 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 9:07 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 8:41 PM CDT

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Outlook for July 2022

TEMPERATURES

Temperature trend for July 2022 per last 10 CFS model runs.

PRECIPITATION

Precipitation trend for July 2022 per last 10 CFS model runs.

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LACK OF RAIN/DROUGHT

Areas outlined in red saw a very dry June, especially in the areas shaded in darker brown which represents a top 10 driest June on record.

Drought conditions have worsened (yellow) a bit over the last month from southern Minnesota into parts of north-central Wisconsin, so this is another thing to monitor as we head through July to see if this developing ‘flash drought’ continues to worsen, or does the pattern turn wetter in the weeks ahead? Time will tell!

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Storm and Rainfall Reports for June 29, 2022

4:18 PM Thursday, June 30, 2022

Another round of severe thunderstorms hit parts of northeast Minnesota Wednesday evening with several reports of quarter size to ping pong ball size hail, with even a few reports of golf ball to hen egg size hail around the Grand Rapids area Wednesday evening.

Local Storm Reports for Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

10:00 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 6 NW Castle Danger, MN (Lake County) 25-minute hail duration with pea to quarter size hail with some minor leaf damage to plants.

8:25 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 1 NE Little Swan, MN (St. Louis County) 2.10″ of rain also fell with this storm.

8:13 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 1 SSE Pengilly, MN (Itasca County)

7:59 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 4 NW Taconite, MN (Itasca County)

7:55 PM: Hail 2.00″ (hen egg size) 2 SSW Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

7:46 PM: Hail 1.75″ (golf ball size) 1 WNW Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

7:45 PM: Hail 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

7:40 PM: Hail 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) 1 N Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) 1.22 inches of rain was also measured from this storm

7:38 PM: Hail 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) 4 SSE Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

7:37 PM: Hail 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

7:32 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 1 WSW Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)

7:28 PM: Haill 1.50″ (ping pong ball size) 1 SW Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

7:28 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 1 WNW Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

7:23 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) Cohasset, MN (Itasca County)

7:22 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 3 SW Cohasset, MN (Itasca County)

7:03 PM: Hail 0.75″. 5 S La Prairie, MN (Itasca County)

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A narrow corridor of heavy rain developed Wednesday evening north of Duluth.

Rainfall Reports from Wednesday-Thursday morning, June 29-30, 2022

Grand Rapids, MN: 0.61″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.34″
Seagull Lake, MN: 0.32″
Littlefork, MN: 0.27″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.24″
International Falls, MN: 0.21″
Orr, MN: 0.18″
Bigfork, MN: 0.15″
Ely, MN: 0.13″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.09″
Isabella, MN: 0.05″
Hayward, WI: 0.05″
Grand Marais Airport: 0.05″
Washburn, WI: 0.03″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.03″
Duluth Airport: 0.02″
Ashland, WI: 0.01″
Siren, WI: 0.01″
Superior Airport: 0.01″

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Rainfall totals have varied considerably in the Northland this month, with northwest Wisconsin seeing the least amount of rain, in fact June 2022 will end up the 2nd driest June on record in Ashland with just 0.78″ of rain.

Rainfall Totals for June 2022

International Falls, MN: 4.28″ (+0.50″ above normal)
Duluth, MN: 4.07″ (-0.32″ below normal)
Hibbing, MN: 4.04″ (-0.32″ below normal)
Brainerd, MN: 2.43″ (-1.60″ below normal)
Ashland, WI: 0.78″ (-3.14″ below normal)

Here’s a look at the percent of normal precipitation over the last 30 days.

Brown: Drier than normal
Green: Wetter than normal

Abnormally Dry (yellow) conditions are expanding in Wisconsin with nearly 40% of the state abnormally dry, up from 15% last week.

Moderate Drought has developed in far southern Minnesota per this week’s drought monitor, with 0.61% of Minnesota in moderate drought, this is up from 0% last week.

15% of Minnesota is abnormally dry (yellow), this is up from 10% last week.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Surface temperatures were cold enough for snow in far northern MN early today (lows in the 30s); A few showers/t’storms possible through Thursday with warmer temperatures

5:52 PM Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Instability will begin to increase from SW-NE in the Northland tonight as a low-level jet strengthens to around 40-65 knots during the night, this low-level jet will increase the amount of warm air and moisture advection into our area, as well as increase the amount of elevated CAPE (instability) this combined with a warm front lifting NE out of central Minnesota means that we could see a few thunderstorms develop in parts of the Northland later tonight and also on Thursday as will keep some instability around while a cold front slices through the area.

There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in all of northeast Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin later this evening and overnight. The primary threat from severe thunderstorms is from damaging winds to 60 mph and large hail to 1″ diameter or quarter size.

The risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms shifts farther east into southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin Thursday, and like tonight the primary threat from severe thunderstorms is from damaging winds to 60 mph and large hail to 1″ diameter or quarter size.

A look at the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid through 7 PM Thursday.

Widespread heavy rain is unlikely tonight or Thursday, but isolated pockets of rainfall totals >0.25″ are possible in parts of the Northland.

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Quite a bit of cloud cover has been moving east across northern Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin today. These clouds are forming on the NE side of some real intense heat which covered parts of South Dakota and Nebraska today.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Wednesday, June 29, 2022.

In addition to the clouds, we’ve also seen some scattered rain showers move quickly to the east across northern Minnesota today, but with a lack of instability we haven’t seen any thunderstorm activity with these showers today.

Radar loop ending 4:30 PM Wednesday, June 29, 2022.

We’re seeing a big-time temperature contrast across the region today.

Winner, SD: 108 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: 54 degrees

100+ degree temperatures extend as far east as Huron and Mitchell, SD this afternoon, with 90+ degree temperatures into southwestern Minnesota.

Temperatures will trend much warmer in the Northland Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, but temperatures will cool some Friday through the weekend with highs mainly in the 70s which is pretty close to normal for this time of the year.

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This morning’s temperatures were getting cold enough to support a frozen precipitation type if there was precipitation falling from the sky early this morning, but with warmer temperatures higher up in the atmosphere that would’ve made it difficult for any snow or sleet early today, but it still is pretty crazy to see temperatures near the freezing mark in a few locations in the Northland as we approach July 1st!

Low Temperature Reports from Wednesday morning, June 29, 2022

Note: This is the 2nd time this week where we saw temperatures fall into the 30s in some parts of the Northland, but no record lows were set or tied this morning, similar to Monday morning.

2 E Celina, MN: 33
Embarrass, MN: 35
Crane Lake, MN: 36
Eveleth, MN: 37
Grand Marais Airport: 37
Cook, MN: 37
Ely, MN: 37
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 37
Bigfork, MN: 37
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 37
Orr, MN: 37
Cotton, MN: 38
Hayward, WI: 39
Solon Springs, WI: 39
3 E Wright, MN: 39

The minimum temperature of 37 degrees at Hibbing, Minnesota this morning, Wednesday, June 29, 2022, was the 2nd time this week where the minimum temperature was <40 degrees, and the 10th time this month. The average number of days in June with a minimum temperature <40 degrees at Hibbing is 6, the record is 15 days set in 2004.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

A few showers/t-storms possible Wednesday-Thursday. Storm reports from today; Lake Superior water temperature update (running colder than average for this time of the year)

6:15 PM Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Scattered severe thunderstorms moved through parts of northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon, here are the storm reports from today, Tuesday, June 28, 2022.

Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

2:35 PM: Hail 0.25 inch. 4 ENE McKenzie Lake, WI (Washburn County)

2:08 PM: Hail 1.25 inch (half dollar size) 2 W Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)

2:04 PM: Hail 1.00 inch (quarter size) 4 W Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)

1:58 PM: Hail 1.75 inch (golf ball size) 4 NNW Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)

1:55 PM: Hail 1.75 inch (golf ball size) 4 NNW Namekagon, WI (Bayfield County)

1:54 PM: Hail 0.88 inch. 10 ENE Cable, WI (Bayfield County)

1:50 PM: Hail 0.75 inch. ESE Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)

1:45 PM: Hail 1.00 inch (quarter size) 4 NNE Morse, WI (Ashland County)

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West to northwesterly winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere helped to carry the high-level clouds or blow-off clouds from thunderstorms in north-central Wisconsin farther to the southeast this afternoon.

Here’s a visible satellite of the above image.

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There’s been some severe weather in southern portions of the Northland over the last 2 days.

Monday’s severe thunderstorms targeted parts of eastern Minnesota and far western Wisconsin with large hail being the main hazard.

And today’s severe weather was focused on northern Wisconsin with large hail being the main hazard once again.

MRMS rainfall analysis which focuses on the scattered storms which moved through parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon/early Monday evening. Note the scattered bands of higher rainfall totals which is very typical for how rainfall patterns setup this time of the year, one area gets quite a bit of rain, while a few miles away there is very little rain to no rain at all!

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Water vapor loop from Tuesday, June 28, 2022.

Three strong areas of low pressure going from left to right on the loop below.

1: Southwest Canada (British Columbia area)
2: Hudson Bay Canada
3: Northeast of New Foundland (Labrador Sea area)

Today’s cold front which moved through the Northland will return north as a warm front Wednesday night which will be followed by another cold frontal passage Thursday.

We may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the Northland Wednesday and Wednesday night due to increasing amounts of warm air and moisture advection along with a strong low-level jet which is forecast to setup over parts of the upper Midwest Wednesday night.

The threat for a widespread severe weather event is on the low side Wednesday, but there is a chance for at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in much of the Northland with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

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Usually by July and August an east wind doesn’t have as great of an effect on temperatures near Lake Superior as an east wind does in May and June, but things may be different this year since Lake Superior continues to run colder than average by some 5-8 degrees!

The warmest year on June 27 for the period (1995-2021) was in 1998 with an average surface water temperature of around 54 degrees.

The coldest year on June 27 for the period (1995-2021) was in 1996 with an average surface water temperature of around 40 degrees.

The average surface water temperature of Lake Superior as of June 27, 2022, was around 41 degrees (average in late June is closing in on 50 degrees)

Note 2022 is running similar to 1996 in terms of the water temperature of Lake Superior, and in 1996 the water temperature of Lake Superior didn’t peak (low 60s) until early September. Usually, Lake Superior is at its warmest in August.

Here are some Lake Superior buoy observations (water temperatures) from 5 PM Tuesday, June 28, 2022.

West Superior – 30 NM northeast of Outer Island, WI: 37 F

Mid Superior – 60 NM north-northeast of Hancock, MI: 37 F

Slate Island (far northern Lake Superior) 37 F

East Superior – 70 NM northeast of Marquette, MI: 37 F

Western Lake Superior – 44 F

Duluth, MN (site DULM5) 60 F

Thanks for reading!

Tim

A few chances for showers/t-storms through Thursday with seasonable temperatures

5:35 PM Monday, June 27, 2022

Local Storm Reports for June 27, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

5:19 PM: Hail 1.25″ (half dollar size). Beroun, MN (Pine County) A lot of accumulated hail on the roadway.

5:08 PM: Hail 0.88″. 2 ENE Brook Park, MN (Pine County)

4:22 PM: Hail 2.00″ (hen egg size) 7 SSE Kimberly, MN (Aitkin County)

3:40 PM: Hail 1.00″ (quarter size) 4 ENE Hassman, MN (Aitkin County)

We’ve seen some showers and thunderstorms move southeast across parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota this afternoon with the majority of these storms remaining below severe criteria, but we have seen two severe thunderstorms one passing southwest of the McGregor area and the other passing south of the Hinckley between 4-5 PM today with a few reports of large hail ranging from quarter size to hen egg size (1″ to 2″ in diameter)

The environment for today’s storms includes sufficient amounts of instability with CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, but other ingredients are lacking for a more robust severe event today, this would include less than ideal moisture content with dew points generally around 50 to 55, weak winds aloft and weak amounts of wind shear, but with the instability in place along with some warm air advection we have seen some scattered convection develop in some parts of the Northland this afternoon and this should continue at least into early this evening.

Goes-16 satellite loop showing the scattered storms affecting parts of the Northland this afternoon as noted by the yellow/orange colors which represents colder cloud tops/convection.

Radar loop ending 5:10 PM Monday, June 28, 2022.

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TUESDAY’S STORM RISK

A cold front will move south across the Northland on Tuesday, but the timing of this cold frontal passage looks to be from Tuesday morning through about mid-afternoon Tuesday which really isn’t ideal for getting enough instability to develop prior to the passage of this cold front, but parts of northwest Wisconsin may build up enough instability for there to be a few showers and thunderstorms with an isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms during the early to midafternoon on Tuesday, while northeast and east-central Minnesota could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly Tuesday morning.

The strongest signal for more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday is over central into northern and northeastern Wisconsin where a later cold frontal passage should allow for greater instability to build up which then leads to a better chance for stronger convection during the mid to late afternoon Tuesday.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY’S STORM POTENTIAL

Will see another low-pressure system move across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday with the cold front moving through our area Tuesday lifting back north as a warm front Wednesday, while another cold front pushes through the area Thursday.

This midweek system offers a slightly greater chance for severe thunderstorms in parts of the Northland if we can get enough moisture to return ahead of this system.

There looks to be sufficient instability for storms to tap into on Wednesday, and much stronger winds aloft and more favorable wind shear as well, and lapse rates also look fairly steep at the moment, so when you combine all of these ingredients then this could lead to a few severe thunderstorms especially from Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning.

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With only a few days left in June let’s take a look at how we’re doing in terms of temperatures and precipitation in the Northland this month — Stats below are through June 26.

All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin is running slightly warmer than average in the temperature department this month.

Average Temperature and Departure from Normal

Brainerd, MN: 67.5 F, +2.8 degrees above normal
Ashland, WI: 61.9 F, +1.4 degrees above normal
Duluth, MN: 61.9 F, +1.3 degrees above normal
International Falls, MN: 61.1 F, +0.7 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: 59.7 F, +1.2 degrees above normal

*5 days with a temperature of 80 or warmer at Duluth, and 1 day with a temperature of 90 or warmer. Average number of 80 degrees days at Duluth during the month of June is 5 days, and the average number of 90-degree days at Duluth in June is 0.

Rainfall totals this month have varied significantly which isn’t unusual at all for this time of the year.

Duluth has picked up over 4″ of rain so far this month while Ashland has picked up just a little over 0.75″ of rain.

International Falls has seen 125% of its normal rainfall this month while Ashland is at just 23% of its normal rainfall, in fact all of northwest Wisconsin into far eastern Minnesota has had a dry June.

Total Precipitation, departure from normal and percent of normal precipitation

Duluth, MN: 4.06″, +0.34″ above normal (109% of normal)
International Falls, MN: 4.03″, +0.80″ above normal (125% of normal)
Hibbing, MN: 3.74″, +0.05″ above normal (101% of normal)
Brainerd, MN: 2.30″, -1.11″ below normal (67% of normal)
Ashland, WI: 0.78″, -2.64″ below normal (23% of normal)

Thanks for reading!

Tim