Update on the thunderstorm potential through this evening

4:12 PM Sunday, July 31, 2022

A cold front will continue to move east out of western Minnesota through this evening, and as this front moves farther east it will encounter a warm, humid and unstable air mass which will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Northland through this evening.

An approaching mid/upper-level trough digging ESE out of western Minnesota will also enhance the amount of lift as it moves over the Northland this evening, so this will be another source of lift to get some thunderstorms to develop.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday, July 31, 2022.

There is quite a bit of moisture over the Northland ahead of this system today with precipitable water of around 1.50″ while dew points are in the low to mid 60s.

Torrential downpours are likely in parts of the Northland through this evening due to the available moisture over the area today.

Rainfall totals ranging from 0.10″ to 0.50″ are likely in much of the Northland this evening, with locally higher amounts of 0.50″-1″+ possible in spots.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through this evening with the better chances covering areas along and south of a line from around Brainerd to Moose Lake in Minnesota, and west of a line from around Dairyland to Shell Lake in northwest Wisconsin.

The primary severe weather threats include damaging wind gusts to 65 mph and large hail to 1 inch diameter (quarter size).

The parameters for severe weather aren’t too high with today’s setup with most of them in the marginal range including the amount of wind shear which ranges from around 25 to 30 knots while CAPE is maximized in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.

The potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is greatest until around 10 PM this evening, and the risk for showers and thunderstorms should diminish from west to east by Midnight tonight.

HRRR model simulated radar forecast through Midnight tonight.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Summer 2022 temp and precip stats; Long Range Forecast for August 2022

11:51 AM Sunday, July 31, 2022

Here’s a look at the climate normals and records for the month of August at Duluth, Minnesota.

Normal high on the 1st: 78
Normal high on the 31st: 73

Normal low on the 1st: 57
Normal low on the 31st: 53

Average monthly temperature: 65.5 degrees

Warmest August on record: 70.2 degrees set in 1930

Coldest August on record: 57.5 degrees set in 1912

Normal precipitation in August: 3.73″

Wettest August on record: 10.31″ set in 1972

Driest August on record: 0.29″ set in 1930

Normal number of 80-degree days in August: 8
Normal number of 90-degree days in August: 1

Astronomical Data for August at Duluth, Minnesota

Sunrise on the 1st: 5:49 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 6:26 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 8:41 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 7:49 PM CDT

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Temperature and Precipitation stats for meteorological summer 2022
June 1 through July 30

Note, the final day of meteorological summer is August 31.

Average temperatures so far for the summer of 2022 are running near normal to slightly warmer than normal in most of the Northland, except in the Arrowhead of Minnesota which is running cooler than normal so far this summer.

Brainerd, MN: 69.0 F, +1.6 degrees above normal

Duluth, MN: 64.3 F, +0.3 degrees above normal

International Falls, MN: 63.1 F, +0.3 degrees above normal

Hibbing, MN: 61.5 F, +0.3 degrees above normal

Total Rainfall, departure and percent of normal

Rainfall patterns have been pretty crazy this summer, with International Falls picking up nearly 9″ of rain so far this summer, while Minneapolis hasn’t even cracked the 3″ mark for rainfall the entire summer thus far!

International Falls, MN: 8.99″, +1.33″ above normal (117% of normal)

St. Cloud: 7.64″, +0.40″ above normal (105% of normal)

Duluth, MN: 6.88″, -1.32″ below normal (84% of normal)

Twin Cities, MN: 2.30″, -6.21″ below normal (27% of normal)

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Long Range Forecast for August 2022

Temperatures

Above normal temperatures are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but Lake Superior may have something to say about that for locations along the North Shore and South Shore as water temperatures continue to run well below normal on Lake Superior.

Temperature anomaly trend for August 2022 per last 8 model runs from the CFS model.

Precipitation

Near normal to below normal precipitation is expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Precipitation anomaly trend for August 2022 per last 8 model runs from the CFS model.

500mb height anomaly forecast for August 2022 per last 8 model runs from the CFS model.

Not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern compared to what we’ve already seen this summer which is a continuation of a NW flow for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes while a ridge (heat dome) covers the Rockies and Plains. Some shakeups to this pattern are possible during the month as this just shows what the average 500mb pattern should look like for August 2022.

The most intense/persistent heat in this type of pattern should remain locked up farther west/south of the Northland in August, but some shots of heat are still possible throughout the month, but the real warm stuff likely won’t stick around very long.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Warm temperatures continue Sunday; A few showers/t-storms northern MN tonight; Scattered showers/t-storms Sunday

5:05 PM Saturday, July 30, 2022

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight through early Sunday morning mostly over northern Minnesota, North Shore, and Arrowhead as a warm front lifts NE out of western Minnesota while a southwest low-level jet of up to 40 knots causes a warm air and moisture advection pattern across the upper Midwest while elevated instability continues to increase with values up around 500-2000 J/kg.

Note: No severe weather is expected with anything that develops in northern Minnesota tonight, but brief downpours and occasional lightning is possible.

Here is the HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Sunday.

SUNDAY’S SETUP

The chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms increases in the Northland Sunday through early Sunday evening as a cold front moves east across the area later in the day.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid Noon Sunday to Midnight Monday.

All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin is in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday, while far southern parts of the Northland, roughly south of a line from Brainerd to Hinckley to Siren is in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

The primary severe weather hazards on Sunday include large hail to 1″ in diameter or quarter size hail, and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

Note: The chance for strong to severe thunderstorms is highest Sunday afternoon through early Sunday evening from around 3 PM to 9 PM.

Rainfall totals will vary considerably as they often do this time of year, but on average we’re looking at anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.50″ of rain in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Sunday night, with locally higher totals of 0.75″ to 1″+ possible.

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Warmer temperatures returned to the Northland today with high temperatures generally in the 80s!

*11 days this month with a high of at least 80 in Duluth, normal in July is 12 days, and with another 80-degree day likely on Sunday, this will put us right at the normal number of 80-degree days during the month of July.

By the way, those 90s which are over the Northern Plains today won’t be making it this far east anytime soon as the core of the heat remains farther to our west/south which is something we’ve seen pretty much the entire summer thus far, and I really don’t see things changing a whole lot to the point where I would be concerned about getting a prolonged stretch of hot weather in the Northland at least through much of next week the way it looks now.

It is starting to feel a little more humid in parts of the area today with 60+ degree dew points becoming more widespread from eastern North Dakota into parts of western, central and southern Minnesota.

Sunday will be a touch humid in much of the Northland with dew points ranging from around 58 to 66 degrees.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Scattered showers continue this evening; Dry Friday-Saturday; Warmer temperatures the next few days

5:39 PM Thursday, July 28, 2022

The water temperature of Lake Superior continues to run well below normal here in late July. Typically, by this time of year the average water temperature of Lake Superior is between 56-58 degrees, but this year we still have an average water temperature of around 48-49 degrees, what this means is that anytime the wind is out of the east this may lead to temperatures being quite a bit cooler compared to what we typically see near Lake Superior late in the summer which is less of a cooling effect whenever the wind is out of the east since water temperatures are usually quite a bit warmer by the time we get into August, but this isn’t the case this year.

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Warmer temperatures will return to the Northland over the next few days with highs mainly in the 70s on Friday, warming into the 80s Saturday and Sunday, but the humidity won’t really start to increase until Sunday, that’s when dew points climb into the 60s. We could also see some showers or thunderstorms return to the area later this weekend as a cold front moves into the upper Midwest.

Short Term — Scattered showers with brief downpours and gusty winds will continue in the Northland through about midevening before we see these showers diminish.

Radar loop ending 5:10 PM Thursday, July 28, 2022.

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We’ve seen a few pockets of very heavy rain which has led to major flooding over parts of the Midwest over the last few days.

One area that was hit hard was around the St. Louis area on July 26, and this morning (July 28) parts of eastern Kentucky saw major flooding due to excessive rainfall totals.

Parts of northeast Minnesota also picked up some impressive rainfall totals on July 26, with Hibbing recording 2.31″ of rain which set a new daily rainfall record for July 26.

It’s either been too wet or too dry in Minnesota this summer, just depends what part of the state you’re in.

Drought continues to expand in parts of southern, central and eastern Minnesota with 30% of the state abnormally dry, while 6% of the state is in moderate drought, with 1% of the state (centered mostly over the Twin Cities metro) in severe drought.

45% of Wisconsin is abnormally dry, up from 34% last week.

7% of Wisconsin is in moderate drought, up from 5% last week.

A look at drought conditions across the Midwest.

Drought monitor class change over the last 8 weeks (July 26, 2022, compared to May 31, 2022)

Soil moisture conditions as of Wednesday, July 27, 2022.

Yellow, orange, and red – Dry
Green and blue – Wet

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Some rain at times over the next few days; A warming trend possible this weekend

5:18 PM Monday, July 25, 2022

Two cold fronts will be moving through the Northland over the next few days with one front moving through Tuesday afternoon-evening, and the other on Wednesday. These cold fronts will be connected to another strong mid and upper-level low-pressure system which will dig SE toward the upper Great Lakes region on Wednesday.

Occasional scattered coverage rains along with a few thunderstorms are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain on Wednesday focusing mostly during the afternoon-early evening.

High temperatures through Friday will continue to run near normal to slightly below normal for late July with daytime highs mostly in the 70s in the Northland. Slightly warmer temperatures are possible this weekend with high temps possibly reaching or exceeding 80 degrees both Saturday and Sunday.

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A look at rainfall totals and the departure from normal for July 2022 (thru 4 PM on the 25th)

In general, rainfall this month has been above normal in far northern Minnesota, to below normal in much of the rest of the Northland, with the Brainerd area running >2″ below normal this month.

International Falls, MN: 3.88″, +0.51″ above normal (115% of normal)

Hibbing, MN: 2.50″, -0.77″ below normal (76% of normal)

Duluth, MN: 2.44″, -0.84″ below normal (74% of normal)

Ashland, WI: 2.01″, -1.13″ below normal (64% of normal

Brainerd, MN: 1.65″, -2.04″ below normal (45% of normal)

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500mb low digging SE across Ontario on Wednesday is forecast to be around -3.4 sigma per GFS model forecast. So, this looks be another strong system compared to what we normally see at this time of year.

A few isolated showers are possible early Tuesday morning, but a greater chance for scattered showers arrives during the day Tuesday spreading from west to east across the Northland. Showers are expected to end from west to east Tuesday evening.

Note: Rain chances for Duluth are greatest Tuesday afternoon-early Tuesday evening, but isolated showers can’t be ruled out Tuesday morning.

Here’s a look at a few different computer model simulated radar forecasts for Tuesday.

18z NAM 3km model valid Midnight tonight to Midnight tomorrow night.

18z HRRR model valid Midnight tonight to Midnight tomorrow night.

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As one strong upper-level system moves away (Quebec province) another one is already digging S-SE into northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba this afternoon per Goes-16 water vapor imagery, and this upper-level system will be affecting the Northland’s weather through Thursday.

Near to slightly above normal (gray and green) rainfall is expected this week in northern Minnesota, while below normal (brown) rainfall is expected this week from eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

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This July has been about as normal as a July can get in Duluth when it comes to the temperatures, with almost the same amount of below normal days compared to above normal days through July 24th.

10 days so far this month with a high temperature of 80 or warmer in Duluth, normal in July is 12 days.

Here’s a look at the monthly average temperature and departure from normal for July 2022 (thru the 24th)

Brainerd, MN: 71.5 F, +1.8 degrees above normal
Duluth, MN: 66.9 F, normal
Ashland, WI: 66.2 F, -0.2 degrees below normal
International Falls, MN: 66.0 F, +1.3 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: 64.2 F, +0.7 degrees above normal

Thanks for reading!

Tim