Gusty NE winds with much cooler temps near Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday, milder temps inland; Much cooler temps area-wide late next week with possible snow flurries in far northern MN

5:41 PM Friday, September 30, 2022

Weather perfection in the Northland on this final day of September 2022!

Mostly sunny skies, southerly breezes and high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Northland today, but a change in the weather takes place on Saturday especially for locations near Lake Superior as a northeast wind develops while increasing to 15 to 30 mph. Areas of low clouds and some drizzle is also possible near Lake Superior this weekend.

Temperatures are running about +10 to +15 degrees warmer than normal across the Northland today.

There continues to be a chance for a few rain showers at times across the Northland this weekend, but widespread rain is unlikely, and for those locales that happen to get a shower, rainfall totals won’t amount to much.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid through 7 AM Sunday.

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LONG RANGE FORECAST

We are looking at a pattern change mid to late next week with a shot of chilly air affecting the Northland.

Daytime highs only in the 40s to around 50 are possible in our area next Thursday-Friday, October 6-7, and there is even a chance that we could see a few snow showers or mixed showers in far northern Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin later next week.

Here’s a look at the temperature anomaly for October 5-10, 2022.

Warmest temps compared to average will be focused over the far western U.S. into western Canada, while the coolest temps compared to average will be focused over the eastern U.S.

The Northland can expect a shot of cool/below normal temps mid to late next week but there are indications showing up in model guidance for a warming trend to occur again ~8th to 10th of October.

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September 2022 Climate Stats for the Northland

Average monthly temperatures finished about +1 to nearly +3 degrees warmer than average, while precipitation was below average for the month, except at Ashland which had slightly above average precipitation for the month.

Precipitation — Total, departure from normal and percent of normal for September 2022

Ashland, WI:
Total: 3.05″
Departure: +0.02″ above normal
Percent of normal precip: 101% of normal

Duluth, MN:
Total: 2.73″
Departure: -0.75″ below normal
Percent of normal precip: 78% of normal

Hibbing, MN:
Total: 2.56″
Departure: -0.50″ below normal
Percent of normal precip: 84% of normal

International Falls, MN:
Total: 2.36″
Departure: -0.64″ below normal
Percent of normal precip: 79% of normal

Brainerd, MN:
Total: 2.00″
Departure: -0.60″ below normal
Percent of normal precip: 77% of normal

53% of days in September 2022 were warmer than average in Duluth compared to 37% of days which were cooler than average, while 10% of days were neither above average nor below average, but instead right at the normal value for the date.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Long Range Forecast for October 2022 and a look at the top 5 snowiest Octobers on record at Duluth, MN

4:26 PM Friday, September 30, 2022

Days continue to get shorter, and we typically see the first snows of the season in October, but we can also still get some real nice weather.

October Climate Normals and Records for Duluth, Minnesota

Normal high on the 1st: 60
Normal high on the 31st: 45

Normal low on the 1st: 41
Normal low on the 31st: 30

Average monthly temperature: 44.2 degrees

Warmest October on record: 55.9 degrees set in 1963
Coldest October on record: 33.5 degrees set in 1917

Average number of days with a high of 70 or warmer: 2
Average number of days with a low of 32 or colder: 11

Normal precipitation: 2.91″

Wettest October on record: 7.53″ set in 1949
Driest October on record: 0.09″ set in 1895

Normal snowfall: 2.7″

Snowiest October on record: 14.0″ set in 1933

Mean date for first measurable snowfall (0.1″) October 24

Note: Last year’s first 0.1″ snowfall in Duluth occurred on November 1

Astronomical Data for Duluth, Minnesota for October

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:49 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 6:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 5:54 PM CDT

Note: Sunset times occur before 6 PM starting October 28.

Date of first 0.1″ or greater snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota (2017-2021)

2021: November 1 (0.5″ snowfall)
2020: October 17 (1.9″ snowfall)
2019: October 11 (0.1″ snowfall)
2018: October 10 (0.1″ snowfall)
2017: October 27 (10.6″ snowfall)

Top 5 snowiest Octobers on record at Duluth, Minnesota

1 — 14.0″ set in 1933
2 — 12.0″ set in 2020
3 — 11.5″ set in 1925
4 — 11.1″ set in 2017
5 — 9.7″ set in 1995

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Northwest flow aloft looks to dominate the month of October across the upper Midwest with upper level ridging off to the west and troughing farther to the east. Will likely see some fluctuations to this pattern throughout the month of October with the trough possibly setting up farther west from time to time, while the ridge possibly sets up farther to the east.

October is looking warmer than average across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but don’t panic cold weather lovers because will likely see some shots of chilly fall air from time to time, but the warmth looks to dominate.

Last 10 CFS model runs — Temperature anomaly for October 2022.

Below average precipitation is expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for October 2022.

Last 10 CFS model runs — Precipitation anomaly for October 2022.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Isolated showers tonight and Friday; Highs near 70 in parts of the Northland Friday; Gusty east wind/much cooler temps near Lake Superior this weekend; Drought update; Hurricane Ian update

5:18 PM Thursday, September 29, 2022

-A milder southerly flow will continue over the Northland out ahead of a cold frontal boundary which will extend from south central Saskatchewan to north of Lake Superior through late Friday.

-This southerly flow will maintain a weak warm air and moisture advection pattern across the Northland through Friday with a chance for a few rain showers, but no widespread rain is expected in our area through early next week.

-A gusty easterly wind develops Saturday as the aforementioned cold front sags south of the Northland. Those easterly winds will usher in cooler temperatures near Lake Superior with highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday, while temperatures farther inland remain in the 60s.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Friday.

Here’s the setup for Saturday.

Cold front (blue) with low pressure (red L) over central South Dakota, and strong high pressure (blue H) near James Bay Canada — This setup will lead to gusty ENE winds near Lake Superior with wind gusts to 30 mph possible on Saturday. There’s also a chance that we could see some low clouds/drizzle near Lake Superior if there is enough moisture in place on Saturday.

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Drought continues to expand in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Drought update for September 27, 2022

Minnesota

4% of the state is in Severe Drought, unchanged from last week.

22% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 14% last week.

54% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 41% last week.

Wisconsin

3% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 2% last week.

11% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 9% last week.

35% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 25% last week.

1-month Drought Monitor Class Change in the Northland
September 27, 2022, compared to August 30, 2022

Yellow and orange – 1 to 2 Class Degradation

Gray – no change

Green – 1 Class Improvement

Here’s a look at the 1-month Drought Monitor Class Change centered on the Midwest.

September 27, 2022, compared to August 30, 2022.

Soil moisture is running 0% to 10% of normal along the South Shore of Lake Superior west to Duluth (dark red, red and orange colors)

A larger view of current soil moisture conditions across the region.

Reds – Dry

Greens – Wet

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A strong trough over the northwest U.S. today will move slowly to the east through this weekend — This system will bring significant amounts of rain and some snow to the Rockies over the next few days. Eventually will see this system move into the Northern Plains early next week but as it does so it will also weaken quite a bit.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, September 29, 2022 (loop time ends 4:26 PM CT)

European model snowfall forecast through Sunday morning, October 2, 2022.

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HURRICANE IAN UPDATE (5PM ET, Thursday, September 29, 2022)
Source: National Hurricane Center

Location: About 240 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina. About 335 miles south-southwest of Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph (category 1 hurricane)

Present Movement: north-northeast at 10 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb/29.12 inches

*Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday.

*Ian is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeast U.S. late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-Force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 415 miles.

Peak Storm Surge Forecast

Ian Rainfall Forecast through Sunday evening (8 PM ET) October 2, 2022.

Goes-16 satellite loops of Hurricane Ian (loop times end 5:52 PM ET, Thursday, September 29, 2022)

Thanks for reading!

Tim

A few showers possible Thursday and Friday; Milder temps through this weekend, but a cooler lake breeze likely near Lake Superior Saturday-Sunday; Hurricane Ian update

5:31 PM Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Milder temperatures will return to the Northland the next few days with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 60s to around 70 Thursday through Sunday, but winds will become easterly near Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday which will keep temperatures on the cool side compared to inland locations.

A widespread freeze occurred in the Northland this morning, Wednesday, September 28, 2022. As a result of this, the National Weather Service in Duluth will not be issuing any more frost or freeze headlines for the rest of fall 2022.

Low Temperature reports from Wednesday morning, September 28, 2022

Source: NWS Duluth, MN

2 S Brimson, MN: 21 F
Embarrass, MN: 23 F
Eveleth, MN: 23 F
Seagull Lake, MN: 23 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport) 24 F
Glidden, WI: 24 F
Minong, WI: 24 F
Barnes, WI: 25 F
Cook, MN: 25 F
Ely, MN: 25 F
Eveleth-Virginia, MN (Airport) 25 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) 25 F
Aitkin, MN: 25 F
Hill City, MN: 25 F
Solon Springs, WI: 25 F
Hayward, WI: 25 F
Superior, WI (Airport) 26 F
Isabella, MN: 26 F
Siren, WI: 26 F
Ashland, WI: 27 F
Bigfork, MN: 27 F
International Falls, MN: 27 F
Orr, MN: 27 F
Hermantown, MN: 27 F
Spooner, WI: 27 F
Webb Lake, WI: 28 F
Saginaw, MN: 28 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 28 F
Northome, MN: 28 F
McGregor, MN: 28 F
Cloquet, MN: 28 F
Pine River, MN: 28 F
Cass Lake, MN: 28 F
Shell Lake, WI: 29 F
Winter, WI: 29 F
Hurley, WI: 29 F
Cable, WI: 29 F
Duluth, MN (Airport) 29 F
Brainerd, MN: 29 F
Littlefork, MN: 29 F
Winton, MN: 29 F
Washburn, WI: 30 F
Hinckley, MN: 30 F
Moose Lake, MN: 30 F
Esko, MN: 30 F
Deer River, MN: 31 F
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 34 F
Larsmont, MN: 35 F
Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 36 F

Note: Low of 29 at the Duluth Airport this morning (9/28/2022). Last time Duluth had a sub-freezing temperature was on May 4, 2022 (low of 30)

*First 32 degree or lower temperature last year in Duluth occurred on October 21. So, this year’s first 32 degree or lower temperature occurred much earlier compared to last year, but also occurred very close to the mean date of September 30 for the first 32 degree or lower temperature.

Low temperatures in the Northland Wednesday morning were well below normal for September 28th, but not cold enough to set new low temperature records for the date – See below

Ashland, WI: 12 set in 1893
Brainerd, MN: 19 set in 1942
Hibbing, MN: 20 set in 1967
International Falls, MN: 24 set in 1907
Duluth, MN: 24 set in 1961

No major systems will be impacting the Northland through this weekend, but a combination of a few things, including warm air advection, a low-level jet, and a frontal boundary moving south across the area may be enough to trigger a few rain showers at times beginning on Thursday and continuing through the day on Friday.

Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

There are some major differences with rainfall totals in our area through Friday, with the European model considerably wetter compared to other models.

Euro model is forecasting 1″+ rain totals in Duluth by 7 PM Friday.

HREF model is completely dry for Duluth with only a few pockets of 0.01″ rain totals in our area (light green colored areas)

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HURRICANE IAN UPDATE

5 PM ET, Wednesday, September 28, 2022
Source: National Hurricane Center

Location: About 5 miles east of Punta Gorda, Florida. About 120 miles south-southwest of Orlando, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph (category 4 hurricane)

Present movement: north/northeast at 8 mph

Minimum central pressure: 945 mb/27.91 inches

*The center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn north on Friday and approach the northeast Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

*Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Forecast track of Ian.

T=Tropical Storm

Note: Ian weakens to a tropical storm on Friday as it crosses central Florida, but there is a chance that Ian will become a hurricane once again as it moves over the western Atlantic (pink outlined area) before making landfall somewhere in southern South Carolina Friday afternoon.

Peak Storm Surge Forecast

Ian Rainfall Forecast – Parts of central and northeast Florida could see 10-20″+ of rain.

Goes-16 satellite loops of Hurricane Ian (loop times end 5:37 PM ET, Wednesday, September 28, 2022)

Infrared imagery

Visible imagery

True color imagery

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Freeze Warning for the entire Northland tonight; Isolated showers possible late this week/weekend with milder temps; Hurricane Ian update

5:47 PM Tuesday, September 27, 2022

*Freeze Warning in effect for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Midnight tonight to 8 AM Wednesday.

*Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

*Temperatures will likely remain above freezing for areas adjacent/near Lake Superior, but frost is still possible.

Note: Temperatures dropped to the mid to upper 20s in parts of northeast Minnesota Tuesday morning, and with a better setup in place for colder temps tonight compared to last night, I still think it’s possible that we see a location or two in northern Minnesota drop down to around 20, to possibly as low as 18- or 19-degrees Wednesday morning.

Low Temperature reports from Tuesday morning, September 27, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

2 E Celina, MN: 26 F
Cook, MN: 28 F
Floodwood, MN: 29 F
Hibbing, MN: 30 F
Orr, MN: 30 F
Aitkin, MN: 30 F
Cloquet, MN: 30 F
Siren, WI: 31 F
McGregor, MN: 32 F
Walker, MN: 32 F
Solon Springs, WI: 32 F
Two Harbors, MN: 32 F
Pine River, MN: 32 F
Bigfork, MN: 32 F
Hayward, WI: 33 F
International Falls, MN: 34 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 34 F
Spooner, WI: 35 F
Superior, WI (Airport) 36 F
Butternut, WI: 36 F
Brainerd, MN: 38 F
Ashland, WI: 38 F

Duluth, MN (Airport) 34 F, coldest temperatures since May 5, 2022 (low of 33)

A cool air mass will remain over the Northland tonight, but a warming trend is likely the next few days with highs in the 60s on Thursday, and in the mid 60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday, but we are looking at an easterly wind near Lake Superior on Saturday which will lead to cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

As for rain chances — Isolated showers are possible in the Northland Thursday through this weekend, but widespread rains are unlikely.

The first snow of the season for Duluth may only be a few weeks away if one believes the European ensemble model.

The 50 member EPS model from September 25, 2022, shows the snow season in Duluth starting up sometime in mid-October ~15th to 20th time frame, and the 45-day snowfall forecast which runs through early November calls for snow totals ranging from a low end of 2″ to a high-end amount of ~6″.

Will see what happens!

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Widespread frost and freeze warnings cover the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes tonight, while fire weather concerns along with Hurricane Ian impacts parts of the southeast U.S.

A strong and deep trough covers the eastern U.S. while Hurricane Ian lifts N-NE toward Florida.

Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 5 PM CT, Tuesday, September 27, 2022.

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Source: National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE IAN UPDATE
5 PM ET/4 PM CT, Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Location: About 230 miles south of Sarasota, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph

Present movement: north at 10 mph

Minimum central pressure: 952 mb/28.12 inches

*The center of Hurricane Ian is forecast to pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight and approach the west coast of Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

*Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

*Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Naples to Sarasota region.

*Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian.

Here’s the forecast track of Ian. Numbers represent the category of Ian, with a category 4 or major hurricane expected as it approaches the west coast of Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night with max winds to 115 knots/132 mph, with gusts to 140 knots/161 mph.

The center of Hurricane Ian is forecast to pass somewhere between Tampa and Cape Coral, FL (yellow line on map) Wednesday and Wednesday night, with landfall possible in the Manasota Key to Boca Grande, FL corridor sometime Wednesday afternoon.

Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect for the west coast of Florida as well as for the northeast coast of Florida.

Potential Storm Surge (Inundation layer only) from Hurricane Ian

Blue – Greater than 1 foot above ground

Yellow – Greater than 3 feet above ground

Orange – Greater than 6 feet above ground

Red – Greater than 9 feet above ground

Here’s a zoomed in view of potential storm surge for the Tampa and St Petersburg, FL area.

And for the Port Charlotte and Cape Coral, FL area.

Rainfall potential through Sunday, October 2, 2022.

Red and pink colors represent rainfall totals of 10 to 15″+

Greatest Flash Flood Risk through Friday morning, September 30, 2022.

Satellite loops of Hurricane Ian (loop times end at 4:22 PM CT, Tuesday, September 27, 2022)

Goes-16 infrared imagery

Goes-16 visible imagery

Goes-16 true color imagery

Thanks for reading!

Tim