Dry and Mild through mid-week; Rain chances late week into the weekend; Colder pattern next week with rain/snow chances

5:40 PM Monday, October 31, 2022

There is a chance the Northland will be impacted by 3 low pressure systems by the middle of next week.

-The first system comes through late Thursday into early Friday in the form of a cold front, and this front will likely bring some rain to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late in the week, but a lack of cold air means that will see very little to no wintry precipitation with this first system.

-A second system (more complex than the first) could impact the Northland this weekend bringing another round of rain and maybe a little snow to the area Saturday and Sunday, but there is a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system, and how much phasing occurs between a trough approaching from the NW, and a surface low lifting NE out of the southern Plains. If we get quite a bit of phasing to occur, then a very deep surface low (<980mb) would pass through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend, but if this system remains largely unphased, then a weaker system would result.

-A third system could impact the Northland early next week (~November 7-9) and this one may have colder air to work with bringing more of a wintry precipitation threat to much of the area.

In the end we’re looking at above normal precipitation across the Northland late this week into early next week.

Advertisements

It was a very mild Halloween in the Northland with widespread 60s for daytime highs.

  • High of 63 at Duluth today – Last time it was 60 or warmer on Halloween was in 2000.
  • Halloween 2022 was the warmest Halloween in Duluth since 1958 (high of 64)
  • Warmest Halloween on record at Duluth was in 1950 with a high of 74.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

November Normals and Extremes for Duluth, MN; Long Range Forecast for November 2022

4:49 PM Monday, October 31, 2022

November Normals and Extremes for Duluth, Minnesota

Normal high on the 1st: 45 F
Normal high on the 30th: 30 F

Normal low on the 1st: 29 F
Normal low on the 30th: 16 F

Average temperature for November: 29.8 F

Warmest November on record: 40.6 F set in 1899
Coldest November on record: 18.8 F set in 1959

Average precipitation for November: 1.96″

Wettest November on record: 5.08″ set in 2000
Driest November on record: 0.09″ set in 1917

Average snowfall for November: 14.1″

Snowiest November on record: 50.1″ set in 1991
Least snowy November on record: Trace set in 1928

9 days in November have at least 0.1″ of snow
4 days in November have at least 1.0″ of snow

4 days in November have a temperature of 50 or warmer
1 day in November have a temperature of 60 or warmer
1 day in November have a temperature of 0 or lower

Mean date for first subzero temperature in Duluth is November 30th

Earliest first subzero temperature in Duluth occurred on November 2nd (1951)

Latest first subzero temperature in Duluth occurred on January 11th (1914)

Astronomical Data for November at Duluth

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st: 5:53 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 4:22 PM CST

Note: Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday, November 6th at 2 AM.

Here’s a look at past November snowfall totals at Duluth, Minnesota from 2017 through 2021

Note: Average snowfall in November is 14.1″

2021: 5.5″
2020: 19.2″
2019: 27.7″
2018: 12.2″
2017: 10.5″

Advertisements

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2022

Note: With how unusually warm the first few days of November look to be in the Northland, the odds favor warmer than normal temperatures as a whole for the month, but there are growing risks for colder temperatures at least during the 2nd week of November, but whether or not that carries over into mid to late November is uncertain, as is the level of cold, will it be enough to erase the huge positive temperature anomalies which will likely be in place after the 1st week of November, or will the cold be transient? Time will tell.

Model Forecasts

CFS model – Temperature Outlook

Above normal temperatures for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

NMME – Temperature Outlook

Above normal temperatures for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

CFS model – Precipitation Outlook

Near normal precipitation for all of northeast Minnesota and much of northwest Wisconsin.

NMME – Precipitation Outlook

Near normal precipitation for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

MODEL TRENDS

CFS model temperature anomaly trend for November 2022.

Above normal temperatures in orange and red
Below normal temperatures in blue colors

CFS model precipitation anomaly trend

Above normal precipitation in green colors
Below normal precipitation in yellow colors

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Mild afternoons continue through Thursday with record/near record warmth possible; Late week rain/snow chances; A colder pattern possible 2nd week of Nov.

5:06 PM Sunday, October 30, 2022

It’s another fantastic fall day in the Northland with temperatures in the upper 50s to low to mid 60s this afternoon.

  • Today, October 30th marked the 12th day this month with a high of at least 60 in Duluth (normal in October is 8 days at or above 60) Most was 25 days set in October 1963, and the fewest was 0 set in October 2009 and October 1917. Note: October 2021 had 16 days with a high of at least 60 in Duluth.

There is plenty of cold air sitting well to our north today, but this cold air won’t be able to penetrate very far to the south, yet. But there are indications in model guidance for at least some of this cold air to start pushing farther and farther south/east beginning later this week and into next week, with some of this cold air possibly affecting the Northland after November 3rd. How cold and for how long is uncertain at this time.

Record or near record warmth is possible in the Northland this week, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking like the two days with the greatest chances for a few new record highs to be set in the Northland.

Record Highs for November 1st

Ashland, WI: 74 set in 1933
Brainerd, MN: 69 set in 1990 and 1944
Hibbing, MN: 69 set in 1990
Duluth, MN: 68 set in 1990
International Falls, MN: 65 set in 1990

Record Highs for November 2nd

Duluth, MN: 71 set in 1903
Ashland, WI: 70 set in 1944 and 1938
International Falls, MN: 67 set in 1978
Hibbing, MN: 66 set in 1978
Brainerd, MN: 65 set in 2015, 1981 and 1917
Advertisements

The pattern this week will feature a trough with lower 500mb heights covering the western U.S., while upper-level ridging with higher 500mb heights covers the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.

A cold front moving east late this week could bring some precipitation to the Northland from Thursday evening through Friday morning.

Rain looks to be the main precipitation type at this time due to a lack of cold air, but we could see enough cold air build into northern Minnesota allowing for a rain/snow mix for a time early Friday morning, but widespread significant snow accumulations are not expected late this week.

EPS model probability for >0.1″ snowfall for late this week.

Advertisements

We may see some changes in the 500mb pattern next week as a trough sets up from the Pacific northwest into central Canada while a ridge covers areas from the southern to eastern U.S.

With winds aloft coming out of the NW in western and central Canada next week this may allow for some cold air to push far enough south into the Northland at times.

The temperature pattern for next week reflects the changes in the upper-level pattern above, although it looks like the coldest temperatures compared to average will remain over western Canada into the Northern Rockies next week.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Dry and Mild through the middle of next week; Model chaos late next week

5:17 PM Friday, October 28, 2022

A very dry weather pattern will continue in the Northland through at least the middle of next week, but some precipitation is possible as we get into late next week but there continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the computer models with how the pattern sets up late next week.

Any precipitation that we do see in the Northland late next week should mainly be in the form of rain the way it looks now.

Precipitation Anomalies for October 2022 (thru the 28th)

Duluth, MN: -1.88″ below normal
Brainerd, MN: -1.73″ below normal
Ashland, WI: -1.68″ below normal
Hibbing, MN: -1.35″ below normal
International Falls, MN: -1.32″ below normal

The rest of this month will be dry in the Northland with any precipitation chances holding off until late next week.

There is plenty of cold air lurking well to the north with temperatures as cold as -26 F at Eureka, Nunavut Canada this afternoon while widespread teens and 20s covered northwest Canada and Alaska today, but with winds aloft coming out of the west (zonal flow) this cold air won’t be able to penetrate very far south through the middle of next week. Some changes to the pattern are possible late next week which could allow some of this cold air to push farther south/east, but just how far south/east is unknown at this time as computer models are showing wild swings from one day to the next.

Note: High temperatures in the Northland will range from the mid 50s to low to mid 60s Saturday through at least next Wednesday.

Advertisements
Halloween Climate Stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Since 2000 — There’s only been one Halloween with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees. That occurred in 2000 with a high of 61.

Going back to 1874 — There’s only been 12 Halloweens with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees.

Coldest Halloween on record: High of 25 in 1951
Warmest Halloween on record: High of 74 in 1950

Here’s a look at high temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota on Halloween from 2010 through 2021.

2010: 42 F
2011: 48 F
2012: 49 F
2013: 46 F
2014: 38 F
2015: 45 F
2016: 55 F
2017: 27 F
2018: 42 F
2019: 34 F
2020: 46 F
2021: 44 F

Note: The normal high in Duluth on Halloween is 45 degrees.

Halloween 2022 will likely be the warmest Halloween we’ve seen in Duluth since 2016, and may rival the high of 61 back in 2000.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Mild fall afternoons through much of next week; A few showers tonight, otherwise mainly dry through the middle of next week; Drought Update

4:33 PM Thursday, October 27, 2022

Just when it looked like we were about to get into a cooler/stormier and possibly snowier weather pattern in the Northland later next week, things changed considerably in model guidance last night and that trend has continued into today, so the prospects of getting a winter weather event and cooler weather in the Northland later next week are quickly fading, but still can’t totally be ruled out yet since this is still about 7 days away, and the pattern by late next week is looking pretty chaotic in the computer models.

Overall, this looks more or less like a blowtorch temperature pattern for much of the U.S. through the 1st and 2nd week of November with widespread well above average temperatures in the forecast.

This type of temperature pattern pretty much guarantees that any precipitation we do get in the Northland would be in the form of rain in early November since there is very little to no cold air for a system to tap into as the real cold air will be bottled up well to the west and northwest of the upper Midwest.

Note: High temperatures in the 50s and 60s are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from October 28th through at least November 3rd, and possibly beyond, and there is even a chance albeit a slight one for highs to approach 70 degrees in parts of the Northland around the middle of next week.

Advertisements

Fall 2022 currently ranks as a top 10 driest fall on record in the darker brown areas, this would include for southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, western-southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

A weak system is bringing a little light rain and drizzle to portions of the Northland this afternoon and expect areas of light rain and drizzle to linger into this evening before ending overnight tonight. Most of this rain will remain focused over northeast into east-central Minnesota and into parts of northwest Wisconsin.

This rain won’t amount to much, but it is the only precipitation will see in our area until perhaps later next week or next weekend.

MRMS radar loop ending 4:04 PM Thursday, October 27, 2022.

Advertisements

October 27, 2022 – Drought Update

Minnesota

4% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.

16% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 15% last week.

44% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.

78% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.

Wisconsin

3% of the state is in Severe Drought, unchanged from last week.

24% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.

66% of the state is Abnormally Dry, up from 64% last week.

0.02% of the Midwest is in Exceptional Drought, down from 0.36% last week.

3% of the Midwest is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.

17% of the Midwest is in Severe Drought, up from 15% last week.

50% of the Midwest is in Moderate Drought, up from 43% last week.

82% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry, up from 78% last week.

Currently 17% of the Midwest is drought free, this is down from 58% of the Midwest which was drought free back on July 26, 2022.

Yellow areas have seen a 1 to 2 class degradation in drought conditions over the last 2 months or from October 25, 2022, compared to August 30, 2022.

Midwest 4-week Drought Monitor Class Change from October 25, 2022, compared to September 27, 2022.

Parts of Kentucky have seen a 3-class degradation in drought conditions, while other areas in lighter orange have seen a 1 to 2 class degradation in drought conditions over the last month.

Soil moisture anomaly as of October 26, 2022

Orange and red areas – Dry
Green areas – Wet

Thanks for reading!

Tim