Monthly Archives: January 2023

Past February snowfall totals and temperature anomalies for Duluth; Long range forecast for February 2023

5:06 PM Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Normals and Extremes for February at Duluth, Minnesota

Normal high on the 1st: 21 degrees
Normal high on the 28th: 30 degrees

Normal low on the 1st: 2 degrees
Normal low on the 28th: 11 degrees

Average monthly temperature: 15.4 degrees

Highest: 31.3 degrees set in February 1877
Lowest: -2.2 degrees set in February 1936

Normal precipitation: 1.01″

Wettest: 4.24″ set in February 1922
Driest: 0.10″ set in February 1896

Normal snowfall: 15.1″

Snowiest: 36.4″ set in February 2019
Least snowy: 1.0″ set in February 1896

Average number of subzero nights in February: 10

Most: 24 set in February 1875
Fewest: 0 set in February 1998, 1882, 1878 and 1877

Average number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall: 11
Average number of days with at least 1.0″ of snowfall: 5

Note — Average date for the first 40-degree temperature in Duluth is February 11th (1875-2022 climate period)

Astronomical Data for February

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 28th: 6:50 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st: 5:12 PM CST
Sunset on the 28th: 5:52 PM CST
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February Snowfall Totals at Duluth, Minnesota (2012-2022)
Normal snowfall in February is 15.1″

2012: 19.7″
2013: 19.1″
2014: 29.5″
2015: 8.2″
2016: 12.2″
2017: 14.1″
2018: 24.2″
2019: 36.4″
2020: 5.4″
2021: 8.6″
2022: 24.2″

Since 2012 — 6 Februarys have had above average snowfall in Duluth while 5 had below average snowfall.

Note

-February 2019 was the snowiest February on record
-February 2014 was the 6th snowiest February on record
-February 2018 was the 9th snowiest February on record

Temperature Anomalies for February at Duluth, Minnesota (2012-2022)
Average monthly temperature in February is 15.4 degrees.

Average monthly temperature in parentheses

2012: +8.3 degrees above average (23.7 F)
2013: -0.8 degrees below average (14.6 F)
2014: -10.1 degrees below average (5.3 F)
2015: -10.2 degrees below average (5.2 F)
2016: +1.9 degrees above average (17.3 F)
2017: +7.1 degrees above average (22.5 F)
2018: -5.1 degrees below average (10.3 F)
2019: -4.8 degrees below average (10.6 F)
2020: -1.0 degree below average (14.4 F)
2021: -8.2 degrees below average (7.2 F)
2022: -9.5 degrees below average (5.9 F)

Note

-February 2012 was the 6th warmest February on record
-February 2017 was the 10th warmest February on record


-February 2015 was the 10th coldest February on record

Since 2012 — 8 Februarys were colder than average in Duluth while 3 were warmer than average.

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CFS model temperature anomaly trend for February 2023

Orange and Red: Above average temperatures
Blues: Below average temperatures

For Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin — CFS model predicts warmer than average temperatures for February 2023.

CFS model precipitation anomaly trend for February 2023

Greens: Above average precipitation
Yellow and Brown: Below average precipitation

For Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin — CFS model predicts near normal to slightly above normal precipitation for February 2023.

Note: 27/50 or 54% of Euro ensemble members show warmer than average temperatures in Duluth for February 2023, while 23/50 or 46% show colder than average temperatures.

Highest temperature anomaly per EPS 50-member model: +5.4 degrees above normal

Lowest temperature anomaly per EPS 50-member model: -5.7 degrees below average

The average temperature anomaly of all 50 members is +0.5 degrees warmer than normal.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cold pattern continues the next few days but warmer times ahead this weekend/next week

4:37 PM Monday, January 30, 2023

If you’re looking to escape the cold air, Florida looks like a good spot right about now with temperatures in the 80s this afternoon compared to temperatures in the single digits below zero to around zero in northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Looks like we have about 4 or 5 more subzero nights ahead in Duluth this week. Coldest temperature so far in this arctic blast has been -18 degrees on January 29th, and this matches the lowest temperature we saw during the arctic blast back in mid-December.

Arctic air has helped to develop some ice over portions of Lake Superior the last few days, but ice coverage on Lake Superior is still running well below average for this time of year.

As of January 29, 2023 — Around 7% of Lake Superior was covered by ice. Average amount of Lake Superior covered by ice in late January is 25%.

Another night and another wind chill headline for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 10 AM Tuesday. Wind chills as low as 30 to 35 below zero.

A weak system might produce a short period of fluffy snow in parts of the Northland Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning, but snowfall accumulations should remain under an inch.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday.

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It’s all about the cold temperatures this week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Highs ranging from around zero to the single digits above zero Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, but on Wednesday will see highs jump into the teens.

Lows will be in the -10s and -20s tonight. Single digits below zero to the 10s below zero Tuesday night, and from the single digits above zero to the 10s below zero Wednesday night. Thursday night looks frigid with lows in the -10s, -20s and -30s as will see one last shot of arctic air push through the area.

A warmer temperature pattern sets up this weekend and this could carry over into much of next week with highs in the 20s to lower 30s, while temperatures at night stay well above zero.

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Two minor snow events are possible in the Northland this weekend and early next week, but neither one look too impressive at the moment.

The setup in both looks very similar to each other with dual low-pressure systems (red L on maps) approaching from the west, but again this setup doesn’t look very favorable for a significant snow event.

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Widespread winter weather alerts are in effect stretching from parts of the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

Ice accumulations from freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet will be the main hazard with this system with light snowfall accumulations of around an inch or so.

NWS Ice Accumulation Forecast thru 12 PM Tuesday. Note, more ice accumulations are likely past 12 PM Tuesday.

18z HRRR model radar forecast through 12 PM Wednesday.

Freezing Rain and Sleet (purple)
Rain (green)

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cold but mainly dry for the next several days; Snowfall Reports from Jan. 27 — Record snowfall at International Falls today

6:02 PM Friday, January 27, 2023

The snow is done and now it’s all about the cold as the pattern has become much more favorable for arctic air masses to affect the Northland this weekend into most of next week.

Highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero are likely in the Northland through early next week with lows from this weekend through mid/late next week in the -10s and -20s with a few -30s possible in the traditional cold spots.

Note — Looks like we may put together a streak of about 7 consecutive nights with a subzero temperature in Duluth with this upcoming arctic blast. The arctic blast back in December had 9 nights in a row with a subzero temperature.

This upcoming cold blast may help to develop some ice on Lake Superior over the next week. Ice coverage on Lake Superior is running <5% as of January 26th. Normal ice coverage on Lake Superior in late January is 25%.

Updated Snow Stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Month to Date Snowfall Total: 17.2″
Normal Snowfall to Date: 14.8″
Departure from Normal: +2.4″ above normal
Percent of Normal: 116% of normal

Note — January 2023 will finish slightly above average (+0.4″) in snowfall in Duluth even if we don’t get any more snow the rest of this month as the normal snowfall in January is 16.8″.

Seasonal Snowfall Total to Date: 80.1″
Normal Seasonal Snowfall Total to Date: 50.4″
Departure from Normal: +29.7″ above normal
Percent of Normal: 159% of normal

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500mb heights continue to lower while 850mb temperatures continue to trend colder as arctic air begins to push south out of Canada today in wake of the clipper system from earlier today.

Wind Chill Advisory for northern Minnesota from 9 PM this evening to Noon Saturday, and this will likely be the first of many wind chill headlines will see in our area over the next several days.

Wind chills as low as 30 below zero in the advisory area tonight through early Saturday afternoon.

Tonight’s Lows

Snowfall Reports from January 27, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note — A new daily snowfall record for January 27th was set today at International Falls with 6.8 inches of snow this broke the previous record snowfall of 4.7 inches set in 1993.

Snowfall ratio in Duluth today was 17:1 so a much drier/fluffier snow compared to recent snowfall events.

International Falls, MN: 6.8″
Embarrass, MN: 3.3″
Two Harbors, MN: 3.0″
2 E Celina, MN: 3.0″
4.3 SW Shell Lake, WI: 3.0″
5.7 ESE Cotton, MN: 2.8″
11.8 N Lutsen, MN: 2.7″
3 SW Lester Park, MN: 2.5″
Duluth, MN: 2.4″ (Official total at the NWS)
4.4 SSE Hayward, WI: 2.3″
1 E Ely, MN: 2.2″
7 N McGregor, MN: 2.2″
6 NE Hertel, WI: 2.1″
3 SSE Coleraine, MN: 2.1″
2 SW Two Harbors, MN: 2.0″
4.2 ENE Nisswa, MN: 2.0″
2 SW Moose Lake, MN: 1.8″
4.4 W Grand Marais, MN: 1.8″
Herbster, WI: 1.8″
1 NNW Marcell, MN: 1.8″
3 NNW Mahtowa, MN: 1.7″
3.7 WNW Superior, WI: 1.4″
Wrenshall, MN: 1.3″
1 SSE Cornucopia, WI: 1.3″
Duquette, MN: 1.2″
3 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 1.1″
Spooner, WI: 1.0″
3 S Ashland, WI: 1.0″
1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 1.0″
Gile, WI: 1.0″
Hurley, WI: 1.0″

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Winter Storm late tonight into Saturday

Heads up if you have travel plans that take you to southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Nebraska or southern South Dakota over the next 24 hours as a winter storm will impact those aforementioned areas with significant amounts of snow and gusty winds.

18z HRRR model radar forecast through Midnight Saturday night.

Snowfall forecast thru 6 PM Saturday.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Snow late tonight into Friday morning; Gusty winds with areas of blowing snow late tonight and Friday; Arctic air this weekend into the middle of next week

5:20 PM Thursday, January 26, 2023

A strong clipper system will affect the Northland tonight into Friday.

As is often the case with clippers there won’t be a whole lot of moisture associated with this system since it is coming out of Canada, so expect mostly light fluffy snowfall in the Northland late tonight through Friday morning.

Snowfall totals should generally range from 0.5 to 2.5 inches in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late tonight through Friday morning, but the North Shore especially over the Arrowhead could pick up 3 to 5 inches of snow due to some lake enhanced snow.

In typical clipper fashion will see a surge of warm air advection occur west/south of the surface low with temperatures climbing into the 30s late tonight-early Friday morning from western to southern Minnesota but this surge of warm air won’t make it into the Northland as it gets shunted to the south.

This warm air advection pattern will also help produce an area of snow which will pass through the Northland mid to late this evening through Friday morning.

NAM model forecast for Midnight tonight.

Snow spreads from west to east across the Northland later this evening with snow overnight through about mid-morning on Friday.

For Duluth — Snow begins late tonight (between 11 PM and 1 AM) Snow ends Friday morning (between 8 AM and 10 AM)

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 PM tonight to 12 PM Friday.

Another component to this clipper will be gusty winds with increasing southerly winds ahead of the low tonight with wind gusts to 25 mph, and then will see winds shift to the northwest behind the low on Friday with even stronger wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely.

Areas of blowing snow will occur across the Northland late tonight and through the day Friday.

HRRR model wind gust forecast from Midnight tonight to Midnight Friday night.

Here’s a look at our clipper as it moves quickly to the southeast out of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba late this afternoon.

Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 4:10 PM CT, Thursday, January 26, 2023.

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Something we haven’t seen much of this month is a lot of sunshine, but that all changed today as widespread mostly sunny skies covered northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and wouldn’t you know it, the sun comes out and we actually had a colder than average day in Duluth, the first since December 27th!

Duluth also recorded its first subzero temperature of the month today with a low of -3 F at the Airport. The last time Duluth had a subzero temperature was on December 26th with a low of -3 F.

Still looking very cold in the Northland this weekend through the middle of next week with highs mostly in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows in the -10s and -20s with a chance for some -30s in the traditional cold spots.

Temperature anomaly trends have actually warmed a bit compared to a few days ago from the Northern Plains to upper Midwest. Gone are the widespread purple colors that were forecast on January 24 for the January 30 – February 4 time frame.

Still looks cold, but perhaps not quite as extreme as it looked a few days ago.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Brisk with lingering light snow and patchy blowing snow tonight; Subzero temps in northern MN Thu. AM; Another minor snow event on the way Thursday night-early Friday AM with arctic air to follow; Snowfall reports from Jan. 24-25

5:41 PM Wednesday, January 25, 2023

One nuisance snow event wraps up tonight with a brief break in the snow during the day Thursday before another fast-moving clipper system brings some more snow to the Northland from about mid-evening Thursday into early Friday morning, but after that we’re looking at a mostly dry pattern in the Northland as arctic air takes over this weekend through much of next week.

Note — Snowfall this month has been running very close to average in Duluth with 14 inches of snow thru 4 PM on the 25th which is +0.2 inches above normal to date.

Snowfall Reports from January 24-25, 2023
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

3 N Shaw, MN: 3.0″
5 NE Silver Bay, MN: 2.6″
3 E Grand Marais, MN: 2.5″
3 WSW Lutsen, MN: 2.3″
3 NNW Mahtowa, MN: 2.2″
1 E Ironton, MN: 1.8″
4 NNE Floodwood, MN: 1.7″
7 W Hovland, MN: 1.7″
9 ESE Sawbill Lake, MN: 1.5″
1 SW Brainerd, MN: 1.5″
Duluth, MN: 1.2″ (official total at the NWS thru 2 PM Wed.)
6 ENE Deer River, MN: 1.2″
1 WNW Solon Springs, WI: 1.1″
4 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 1.0″
2 SSE Hawthorne, WI: 1.0″
8 ENE Cook, MN: 1.0″
1 NW Chisholm, MN: 1.0″
2 NE Cloquet, MN: 1.0″

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Light snow continues for much of the night in northwest Wisconsin while light snow comes to an end this evening in northeast and eastern Minnesota including in Duluth.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 AM Thursday.

Additional snowfall accumulations thru 6 AM Thursday.

For Duluth — Less than an inch of additional snow.

Thursday night Clipper

For Duluth — Snow begins Thursday night between 10 PM and Midnight. Snow ends Friday morning between 6 and 8 AM. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 PM Thursday to 12 PM Friday.

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This is incredible — 70% of days so far this winter (Dec. 1 – Jan. 25) have had an above average temperature in Duluth compared to only 30% of days with a below average temperature.

*29 consecutive days with an above average temperature in Duluth (Dec. 28 – Jan. 25) this streak might come to an end on Thursday.

*December 27th is the last time Duluth had a below average temperature.

The big story this month has been the lack of arctic air masses impacting the Northland, but this will be changing over the next several days with a brief shot of colder temperatures on the way Thursday which will be followed by a more persistent stretch of arctic air this weekend into next week.

Average monthly temperature and departure from normal for January 2023 (thru the 24th)

Note — The colder temperatures for the rest of this month will eat away at least somewhat on these huge temperature anomalies we’ve built up this month, so it’s unlikely will be setting any new records for warmest January, but a top 10 warmest January is still in play due to how far above average we are going into this colder pattern that will be seeing the last few days of this month.

Ashland, WI: 24.3 F, +10.1 degrees above normal
Duluth, MN: 22.3 F, +11.1 degrees above normal
Brainerd, MN: 20.6 F, +10.0 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: 18.9 F, +12.5 degrees above normal
International Falls, MN: 18.6 F, +13.8 degrees above normal

Subzero temperatures are likely across northern Minnesota tonight which will be the first subzero temperatures since earlier this month.

Looks like will stay above zero in Duluth tonight so will likely have to wait until Saturday morning for the first subzero temperature this month.

Thanks for reading!

Tim