Issued at 9:04 PM CST, Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
*Wind Chill Warning* is in effect until 12 PM CST Wednesday for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota. This warning includes the following counties in the Duluth area:
Koochiching MN… Northern Itasca MN… Central and Northern St. Louis MN… Lake MN… And Cook MN…
Some cities included in the warning are:
International Falls MN… Bigfork MN… Hibbing MN… Ely MN… Isabella MN… Two Harbors MN… Silver Bay MN… And Grand Marais MN…
Temperatures will fall into the 15 below to 35 below range in the warning area Overnight with wind speeds around 5 to 15 mph. Wind chills will drop to between 40 below and 55 below zero later Tonight through Wednesday Morning.
Under these conditions frostbite could occur in just a matter of minutes. Make sure to cover all exposed skin if your going to be outdoors.
Issued at 8:06 PM CST, Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
Here are some snowfall totals around Minnesota from Monday, January 12th, 2009…
Red Wing: 6.8″
Redwood Falls: 3.5″
Albert Lea: 3.5″
St. Cloud: 2.2″
Dodge Center: 6.0″
Rochester Airport: 5.0″
Zumbro Falls: 5.1″
Surface Analysis at 00z:
Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was centered over Northern Nebraska with a ridge of arctic high pressure averaging 1024-1026 mb centered to the southeast of Minnesota while the next arctic high with a pressure of 1034 mb builds south-southeast into Eastern Saskatchewan Province. Pressure falls ahead of that Nebraska low were around 1-2 mb/2 hours with pressure rises behind the low in the 1-2 mb/2 hour range.
Upper Air Analysis at 00z:
Northwesterly flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today with a ridge of high pressure centered just off the U.S. West Coast. Strong jet stream winds of 100-125 knots stretched from Westcentral Canada down to the Dakotas or on the front side of this high pressure ridge. 850 mb analysis at 00z revealed a very tight thermal gradient around the region with temperatures ranging from +2 to +10 degrees C from Central Montana through the Central Rockies and out into the Western High Plains on up into Western-Southern South Dakota with -10 to -15 degree C 850 mb temps centered over Southwest Minnesota and -20 to -24 degree C 850 mb temps over Northern areas of the state. 850 mb temp here at Duluth was -20 degrees C at 8 PM CT.
The combination of strong warm advection taking place ahead of the Nebraska low working in conjunction with some good surface frontogeneis and convergence is resulting in an area of snow which is moderate to heavy at times This Evening over far Southwest Minnesota through Iowa while areas of mainly light snow covered parts of Southern and Northwest Minnesota. Movement of the snow was to the east-southeast.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 8 PM Tonight ranged from -20 degrees at Warroad to -13 degrees at Grand Rapids to -26 degrees at Ely to -9 degrees at Little Falls to 1 above at Pipestone to -6 degrees at Owatonna.
Partly cloudy skies covered Northern parts of the state This Evening while overcast conditions were common elsewhere. Winds around the state were calm or variable under 5 mph across Northern Minnesota with easterly winds around 5 to 20 mph elsewhere. Wind chills around Minnesota were in the single digits, teens, 20s, to low 30s below zero as of Mid-Evening.
*Winter Weather Advisory* covers the Southern half of Minnesota…
*Wind Chill Warning* covers parts of Northern Minnesota…
*Wind Chill Advisory* covers the Northwest half of Minnesota along with areas of far Western and Southwest Minnesota…
Low pressure will be passing south and southeast of Minnesota Tonight. This system will continue to produce some snow over Western-Southern areas of the state with some flurries or light snow possible from Northwest through Central Minnesota. The majority of the snow will end from west to east later Tonight. Total snow accumulations are forecast to range from 2 to 5 inches across Southern Minnesota with generally 1 to around 3 inches possible West and under an inch Northwest and Central areas.
Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover the state Tonight with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible North. North, northwest, or east winds will occur Tonight generally around 20 mph or less. Wind chills will range from around 15 below to 45 below around the state Tonight.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
*Wind Chill Warning* covers Northern areas of Minnesota Wednesday…
*Wind Chill Advisory* covers parts of Northwest, Western, and Southwest Minnesota through Wednesday Night…
Strong arctic high pressure around 1047 mb will build south into the Dakotas during this period. This second high will be stronger than the first one by about 12-15 mb. Look for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies around Minnesota on Wednesday with mostly clear skies Wednesday Night. High temps on Wednesday will range from around 5 above to 20 below with lows Wednesday Night ranging from 10 below to 30 below with 30 below to 40 below readings expected across the North. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest around 20 mph or less. Wind chills will be in the 15 below to 35 below range around the state through this period with 35 below to 50 below wind chills at times across the North.
A very amplified upper level weather pattern will form around our region later this week through the weekend. The heart of the extreme cold looks like it’ll shift into Eastern Canada during that time while low pressure systems travel northwest to south-southeast to the west of this bitter cold airmass. Those areas of low pressure could bring some snow to parts of Minnesota on occasion beginning on Friday and lasting off an on through the weekend. At this time it appears that the system coming through Friday and Friday Night has the best potential at producing an inch or two of new snow to Northern-Eastern portions of Minnesota.
So as the heart of the cold shifts east, an upper level ridge will try to nudge east toward Minnesota, although right now it appears that this ridge will not be able to penetrate into Minnesota through the weekend, so we will remain susceptible to see cold air shots with the passage of each low, although the bitter cold air should remain off to our northeast during the weekend.
This upper level ridge of high pressure may for a time push east-southeast into Minnesota during the early or mid part of next week which could result in warming temps, but there are indications that more arctic air could drop south into Minnesota later next week, possibly lasting off an on through the remainder of January.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Very cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 below to 22 below. Wind variable under 5 mph, becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight. Wind chills ranging from 30 below to 40 below.
.Wednesday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 9 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 15 below to 30 below.
.Wednesday Night… Bitter cold. Clear. Low 16 below to 24 below. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Wind chills 30 below to 45 below.
.Thursday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 above to 6 below.
.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 22 below.
.Friday… Increasing clouds. Light snow or flurries possible. High zero to 5 below. Chance of snow 20%.
.Friday Night… Light snow or flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Chance of snow 20%.
Issued at 8:39 AM CST, Tuesday, January 13th, 2009
*Wind Chill Warning* and *Wind Chill Advisory* covers all but Southwest areas of Minnesota through Noon Today…
Arctic high pressure of 1030 mb was centered north of Park Rapids Minnesota at 14z… 850 mb temperatures around Minnesota ranged from -16 degrees C in far Southwest Minnesota to -25 degrees C up North. The 850 mb temp here at Duluth was sitting at -23 degrees C at 8 AM CT Today.
Air temps around Minnesota have fallen into the teens, 20s, and 30s below with some spots up North dropping into the 40s below zero This Morning!
500 mb analysis at 12z shows a Northwest flow aloft firmly in place around the Upper Midwest with an upper level area of high pressure building offshore of the Western U.S.
The next clipper system to affect parts of Minnesota’s weather This Afternoon through Wednesday Morning was centered over the eastern part of Alberta Province and the Western part of Saskatchewan Province This Morning with a 1008 mb low pressure center. 2 hour surface pressure falls of 3 mb were found over Central South Dakota at 14z…Should see this surface low reach this general area This Evening where the greatest pressure falls were located This Morning.
Strong warm advection was occurring ahead of this low This Morning over the Dakotas with areas of snow breaking out in that area.
Looks like the main snow area for Minnesota will set-up from Western to Southern areas of the state This Afternoon through late Tonight and Wednesday Morning. Pretty similar to where the snow fell with Monday’s clipper system, although this one appears that it will take a track slightly more to the west and south of Monday’s system.
Looks like a general 1 to 4 inches of snow can be expected for those areas of the state with localized amounts possibly reaching 5 inches. This snow will be very fluffy in nature due to the arctic airmass in place with very high snow ratios expected.
*Winter Weather Advisories* are in effect for parts of Westcentral, Southcentral, and Southeast Minnesota for This Afternoon through early Wednesday due to the expected snowfall. Some cities included in the advisory are: Minneapolis MN… Red Wing MN… Rochester MN… Albert Lea MN… Mankato MN… Willmar MN… Morris MN… Wheaton MN… And Ortonville MN…
Behind this clipper low, gusty winds and another push of arctic air will occur across Minnesota with blowing and drifting snow becoming an issue for Western-Southern areas of the state Tonight and Wednesday with dangerously cold wind chills expected statewide Wednesday and Wednesday Night.
*Wind Chill Advisory* is already in effect for Westcentral and Northwest Minnesota from This Evening through Wednesday Morning and it’s expected that additional wind chill headlines will be issued Wednesday around most of Minnesota later Today.
*Wind Chill Warning* continues for all of Northeast Minnesota and parts of Northwest Wisconsin through Noon CST Today…
This warning includes the following counties in the Duluth area:
Koochiching MN… Itasca MN… Cass MN… Crow Wing MN… Aitkin MN… Pine MN… Carlton MN… St. Louis MN… Lake MN… Cook MN… Douglas WI… Burnett WI… Washburn WI… Bayfield WI… And Sawyer WI…
Some cities included in the warning are:
International Falls MN… Grand Rapids MN… Walker MN… Brainerd MN… Aitkin MN… Pine City MN… Hinckley MN… Moose Lake MN… Esko MN… Duluth MN… Hibbing MN… Ely MN… Virginia MN… Cotton MN… Two Harbors MN… Silver Bay MN… Isabella MN… Grand Marais MN… Superior WI… Siren WI… Grantsburg WI… Spooner WI… Port Wing WI… Bayfield WI… And Hayward WI…
Air temperatures in the warning area at 8 AM Today ranged from 12 below to 20 below across Northwestern Wisconsin to between 15 below to 30 below across Northeast Minnesota with 30 below to 40 below zero temperatures common north and northwest of the Iron Range.
Wind speeds at 5 to 15 mph combined with these bitterly cold temperatures will cause wind chills to remain in the 30 below to 50 below range through early This Afternoon.
Frost bite can occur in just a matter of minutes under these conditions. Make sure to cover up all exposed skin!