No big storms to affect the Northland this week, but a few weaker systems will bring at least a little bit of snow to the area, with a few snow showers and flurries on Monday, followed by a greater chance for some snow on Tuesday, and possibly again on Wednesday, and possibly again for next weekend (Dec. 10-11)
There is a larger system showing up in model guidance for later this week, but the current track of this system would keep the measurable snow well to the south of the Northland Thursday into early Friday.
Another shot of arctic air could affect the Northland midweek, but the bulk of the most severe cold will remain farther to the northwest of our area this week.
Milder temperatures returned to the Northland today with highs in the 20s to lower 30s, but temperatures were even warmer in southwest Minnesota with temperatures in the 40s this afternoon.
Temperatures across the area this afternoon were running +15 to +25 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
Blustery southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are expected in the Northland this evening.
HRRR model wind gust forecast thru Midnight tonight.
A few brief shots of arctic air are likely in the Northland this week but looking ahead to next week shows the temperatures trending warmer in model guidance.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for December 11-16, 2022.
Snow tonight especially before Midnight with accumulations ranging from a dusting to 3 inches, highest snow amounts in parts of northern Minnesota, and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
Rapidly falling temperatures this evening with strong NW winds developing.
Flash freeze possible this evening in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Highs only in the upper single digits and 10s Saturday.
A variety of weather headlines in effect for much of the Northland tonight through early Saturday morning.
Winter Weather Advisoryfor northern Minnesota, Arrowhead and North Shore, and also for the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin. Some cities in the winter weather advisory include International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Hibbing, Virginia, Ely, Cook, Orr, Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Lutsen, Grand Marais, Poplar, Brule, Port Wing, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Butternut, Hurley and Gile.
Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM Saturday for parts of northeast Minnesota including Duluth, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.
Snow across the Northland this evening with a brief mix of precipitation possible early this evening in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.
Snow ends from W-E by late tonight, but some lake effect snow showers are likely along the South Shore of Lake Superior overnight.
For Duluth – Some snow this evening, ending between 9 PM and 11 PM.
12z NAM 3km model radar forecast thru 6 AM Saturday
Snow in blue
Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible tonight in northern Minnesota, and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
Note – Up to 1″ of snow is possible in Duluth this evening.
Windy tonight into Saturday morning
Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph across the Northland this evening with wind gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will occur tonight through early Saturday morning. Winds diminish Saturday afternoon with gusts to 25 mph.
HRRR model wind gust forecast thru 6 PM Saturday.
Very Cold Wind Chills Tonight and Saturday
The combination of gusty winds and much colder temperatures will cause wind chill temperatures to fall into the single digits below to around 20 below zero in the Northland tonight through the day Saturday.
HRRR model wind chill forecast thru 6 PM Saturday.
Big-time temperature contrasts today
Temperature contrast in Minnesota at 3 PM today ranged from 3 degrees at Hallock, to 45 degrees at Winona.
An even more extreme temperature contrast today between Gillam, Manitoba -15 F, to 76 F at Hays, Kansas.
Strong winds gusting 50 to nearly 70 mph are kicking up the dust in northwest Kansas this afternoon, and this dust storm was clearly visible on Goes-16 satellite imagery this afternoon.
Animation of the southeastward moving dust storm in northwest Kansas this afternoon.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Friday, December 2, 2022.
Temperature trends for next week
We’re still looking at below average temperatures in the Northland next week, although the coldest temperatures look to stay farther NW of our area.
Note – We’re also looking at a few more snow chances next week, although no major storms or significant snow events are expected at this time.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for December 4-9, 2022
Note how the temperature anomalies are trending warmer (orange/red colors) across the southern/eastern U.S for next week.
Blue and purple colors represent below average temperatures.
A quick moving low-pressure system will move NE out of South Dakota on Friday. This system will bring a variety of impacts to the Northland Friday afternoon/Friday night
Potential for a flash freeze in parts of east-central Minnesota early Friday evening as mild above freezing temperatures during the day Friday fall rapidly below freezing Friday evening.
A burst of snow late Friday afternoon/evening spreading W-E across the Northland.
Areas of light wintry mix precipitation Friday afternoon/early Friday evening.
Areas of blowing snow Friday night through Saturday morning.
Strong NW winds with gusts of 25 to 50 mph Friday evening through Saturday morning.
Arctic air Friday night into Saturday, highs only in the single digits and teens on Saturday.
Snow develops across north-central Minnesota Friday afternoon (mid to late afternoon) spreading farther east by early Friday evening.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 9 AM Friday to 6 AM Saturday.
A look at the 500mb trough which will move across the region Friday.
For Duluth– Some snow is likely beginning around 5-7 PM Friday, ending by Midnight. Total snowfall accumulations around 1″. Above freezing temperatures Friday afternoon. Arctic air hits with falling temperatures after 7 PM Friday evening. Strong NW winds develop Friday evening (6-8 PM) with wind gusts 25 to 45 mph.
Here’s my snowfall accumulation forecast.
A big-time temperature contrast sets up on Friday with temperatures during the afternoon ranging from around 70 along the Nebraska-Kansas state line to the single digits above zero in northwest Minnesota to around -10 degrees in southern Saskatchewan!
Temperatures warm into the 30s to around 40 degrees in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota Friday afternoon, including here in Duluth where we should see temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s Friday afternoon.
Arctic air will then overspread the area from W-E Friday evening/overnight with temperatures falling into the single digits below to single digits above zero across the Northland.
Strong northwest winds develop Friday evening and will continue overnight into Saturday morning.
Wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph are expected in much of the Northland during the aforementioned time frame, with gusts as high as 50 mph possible especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Wind chill temperatures fall into the single digits below zero to around 20 below zero in the Northland Friday evening-Saturday morning.
Another round of snow and strong winds are possible in the Northland late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning as an area of low pressure moves quickly northeast out of South Dakota, passing near or north of Duluth Friday evening.
Although a major winter storm with significant amounts of snow is unlikely with this system, there is still a potential for some impacts due to a few inches of snow along with falling temperatures and strong winds which could lead to areas of blowing snow, and possibly even a flash freeze type scenario in parts of the Northland due to the rapidly falling temperatures Friday night.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for Friday’s event.
Note – There is also a possibility that will see some mixed precipitation for a brief time Friday afternoon-early Friday evening in parts of the Northland.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 30s in much of the Northland on Friday with a few 40s even possible especially in parts of northwest Wisconsin, but temperatures will drop quickly Friday night as arctic air rushes in, with temperatures by 6 AM Saturday forecast to range from around zero to 10 above in the Northland.
Northwest winds increase with gusts of 25 to 45 mph in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday evening-Saturday morning.
Looking back at my snowfall forecast compared to what actually happened during Tuesday’s snow event.
Overall, not too bad considering how complex this system was, and the computer models not really handling the western edge of the snow shield very well.
Actual Snow Amounts
Final Snowfall Reports from November 29-30, 2022 Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
13 ENE Gordon, WI: 9.8″ 3 SW Lake Nebagamon, WI: 9.5″ Gile, WI: 9.0″ 4 SSW Ashland, WI: 8.0″ Lake Nebagamon, WI: 8.0″ Washburn, WI: 8.0″ 1 E Cable, WI: 8.0″ 3 S Cornucopia, WI: 7.5″ Cozy Corner, WI: 7.5″ Ashland, WI: 7.3″ Brule, WI: 7.0″ Mellen, WI: 7.0″ Herbster, WI: 6.5″ Spooner, WI: 6.0″ Winter, WI: 6.0″ 2 E Siren, WI: 6.0″ 8 W Hovland, MN: 6.0″ 3 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 5.7″ Danbury, WI: 5.5″ Hayward, WI: 5.0″ Port Wing, WI: 5.0″ 3 NNE Trego, WI: 5.0″ 2 WNW Holyoke, MN: 5.0″ 7 W Wascott, WI: 4.6″ 7 WSW Hovland, MN: 4.5″ 4 NW Minong, WI: 4.0″ 4 NE Patzau, WI: 4.0″ 4 SSE Webster, WI: 3.3″ Hovland, MN: 3.0″ 2 WNW Superior, WI: 3.0″ 1 W Silver Bay, MN: 2.8″ 3 WSW Lutsen, MN: 2.7″ Duluth, MN: 2.2″ (Official NWS Duluth) 1 SW Duluth, MN: 2.0″ 3 ENE Grand Marais, MN: 1.8″ Wrenshall, MN: 1.8″ Two Harbors, MN: 1.4″