Scattered showers continue tonight; A mix of sun/clouds this weekend; Scattered rains possible next week

5:11 PM Friday, August 12, 2022

  • Scattered showers will continue in the Northland tonight with some heavier downpours and isolated thunderstorms possible in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
  • Mainly dry weather is expected this weekend, but a few showers are possible Sunday mainly across northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead.
  • Some sunshine is likely at times this weekend, especially on Sunday, but even Saturday should feature some sunny breaks here and there.
  • High temperatures this weekend will mainly be in the 70s, except for 60s in parts of northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior on Saturday.
  • Next week’s weather is looking a little wet at times with daily chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Monday through Friday.
Advertisements

Here’s a look at the NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 AM Saturday.

Rainfall Totals for Friday, August 12, 2022
Source: MesoWest

Totals listed below are through 4 PM Friday.

Hinckley, MN: 0.55″
Brainerd, MN: 0.49″
Siren, WI: 0.41″
McGregor, MN: 0.21″
Aitkin, MN: 0.15″
Walker, MN: 0.14″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.13″
Superior Airport: 0.11″
Hayward, WI: 0.11″
Pine River, MN: 0.10″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.08″
Duluth Airport: 0.07″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.05″
Longville, MN: 0.05″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.03″

Here’s a look at 12-hour radar rainfall estimates from today, Friday, August 12 ending at 4 PM.

Advertisements

Warm temperatures surround a pocket of rain cooled air today with much of western and southern South Dakota well into the 90s this afternoon, with near 90-degree temps into southwest Minnesota, while temperatures are only in the 60s from north-central to southeast Minnesota into much of Wisconsin this afternoon.

Temperatures in the black outlined area are running some -10 to -20 degrees below normal for August 12.

Advertisements

Next week’s pattern is looking pretty amplified for mid-August with a strong ridge covering much of the western US, while a trough sets up across the eastern US — This configuration will keep the upper Midwest locked in a northwest flow aloft next week, with unsettled weather possible at times with daily chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for much of next week.

Another period of very warm to hot temperatures are likely next week stretching from the Pacific northwest into the northern Rockies, with the eastern flank of this warm air affecting west-central and northern Minnesota where temperatures are forecast to be a little warmer than normal next week, while slightly below normal temperatures are expected farther east across Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Some rain at times especially across southern parts of the Northland late tonight-Friday night; Drought Update

5:51 PM Thursday, August 11, 2022

Will be seeing quite a range in temperatures on Friday with highs in the 90s in southwest Minnesota, 100s in southeast South Dakota, to the 70s in far northern Minnesota, while a pocket of rain cooled air (highs 60s to lower 70s) stretches from east-central Minnesota into central Wisconsin.

Warm air and moisture advection occurring NE of an area of low-pressure moving ESE out of South Dakota will result in some rain at times from late tonight through Friday night especially from central, southern, and eastern Minnesota into western and central Wisconsin, while mainly dry weather is expected to continue through Friday night across far northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well Friday and Friday night mainly over parts of central, southern, and eastern Minnesota as there will be some elevated CAPE in place over those areas of the state.

Advertisements

Note: There continues to be some uncertainty on how far north the rain will get on Friday, but there is a chance that some of this rain will reach as far north as the Twin Ports on Friday.

NAM 3km model radar forecast valid through 7 AM Saturday.

Here’s the NWS Blend of Models rainfall forecast — The northern edge of the rain shield has pushed a little farther north compared to where it was 24 hours ago per this model forecast.

Meanwhile the SREF model shows the highest potential for >0.25″ of rain slightly farther to the south.

There will be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere on Friday with PWATS of around 1.75″ centered over central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, while a drier air mass with PWATS of generally <0.75″ will be found in northeastern Minnesota.

Advertisements

DROUGHT UPDATE

There has been some improvement in drought conditions in Minnesota and Wisconsin over the last week.

2% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought, down from 4% last week.

11% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought, down from 13% last week.

28% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, down from 34% last week.

Note: The area outlined in black could see some more rain later tonight and on Friday.

1% of Wisconsin is in Severe Drought, unchanged from last week.

12% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, down from 16% last week.

35% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, down from 48% last week.

<1% of the Midwest is in Extreme Drought, down from 2% last week.

5% of the Midwest is in Severe Drought, down from 7% last week.

14% of the Midwest is in Moderate Drought, down from 18% last week.

33% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry, down from 38% last week.

1 week drought monitor change (August 9, 2022, compared to August 2, 2022)

Areas in green saw a 1 class improvement in drought conditions.

Areas in gray saw no change.

Areas in yellow saw their drought worsen by 1 class.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

East wind returns for the next few days with cooler temperatures especially near Lake Superior; Some rain possible at times Friday-early Saturday

5:12 PM Wednesday, August 10, 2022

A cooling trend is on the way to the Northland over the next few days with the coolest temperatures likely on Friday, this is when we could see daytime highs only in the 50s and 60s in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin while temperatures in the 90s to near 100 degrees are possible in southwestern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

Highs in the 70s are likely in the Northland on Thursday, with 60s near Lake Superior. More 60s and 70s are expected for daytime highs in our area for Saturday and Sunday, with the warmest temperatures found inland from Lake Superior.

The average water temperature of Lake Superior continues to run well below normal for this time of the year.

August 10, 2022: Lower 50s
Normal on August 10: Lower 60s

On average, the water temperature of Lake Superior is at its warmest over the next few weeks.

Advertisements

A low-pressure system moving out of South Dakota on Friday could bring some rain to parts of the Northland on Friday, but computer models differ on how far north this rain will get, however, the most likely area for some rain stretches from central Minnesota into western Wisconsin, but this could shift a little farther north over the next 24 hours.

NWS Blend of Models rainfall forecast through late Friday night.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from Midnight Friday to Midnight Saturday.

Advertisements

Here’s the 500mb forecast through next Wednesday, August 17, 2022.

Nothing but northwest flow aloft for the upper Midwest over the next 7 days, this will help keep the most persistent heat locked up farther to the southwest, basically where it’s been most of the summer.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Some rain tonight followed by several days of dry weather with warmer temperatures

5:01 PM Sunday, August 7, 2022

Some rain will move across the Northland tonight with this rain ending quickly from SW-NE overnight.

After the rain moves out, skies are expected to clear a bit with diminishing winds, this could set the stage for some areas of fog in parts of the Northland for early Monday morning.

For Duluth and Superior — Some rain from around 8 PM to 1 AM tonight.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Monday.

High temperature forecast for Monday-Thursday, August 8-11, 2022.

Monday 8/8: Highs mainly in the 70s for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a mix of sun and clouds and much lighter winds compared to Sunday.

Tuesday 8/9: One of the warmest days of the week with highs in the 80s. A gusty southwest wind ahead of a cold front which moves through Tuesday night. This front should come through mostly dry, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out in far northern Minnesota.

Wednesday 8/10: Highs mainly in the 70s.

Thursday 8/11: Highs mainly in the 70s.

A mid-level trough over the Dakotas this afternoon will continue to move quickly to the east as it moves over the upper Midwest tonight, exiting off to the east on Monday.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday, August 7, 2022.

Advertisements

Rainfall totals of 3 inches to 6 inches plus were reported in parts of northern Iowa into northwest Illinois over the last 24 hours (ending Noon today) with rainfall totals tapering off quickly farther to the north.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cooler temperatures Sunday with a gusty NE wind near Lake Superior; A few showers possible Sunday afternoon/night

5:18 PM Saturday, August 6, 2022

Parts of northern Minnesota picked up a significant amount of rain between Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning – Here are the rainfall reports for August 5-6, 2022 (thru 4 PM on the 6th)

Source: NWS Duluth, MN; MesoWest

Cotton, MN: 2.00″
Isabella, MN: 1.50″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 1.28″
1.5 S Coleraine, MN: 1.21″
McGregor, MN: 1.18″
Hibbing, MN: 1.14″
7.7 S Brainerd, MN: 1.01″
7.3 N McGregor, MN: 1.00″
Brimson, MN: 1.00″
Floodwood, MN: 0.94″
Brainerd, MN: 0.79″
Aitkin, MN: 0.75″
3 E Orr, MN: 0.65″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.52″
Embarrass, MN: 0.50″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.49″
3 E Wright, MN: 0.49″
International Falls, MN: 0.41″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.41″
Littlefork, MN: 0.39″
Walker, MN: 0.26″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.26″
Saginaw, MN: 0.22″
Duluth Airport: 0.18″
Cloquet, MN: 0.18″
Siren, WI: 0.17″
Longville, MN: 0.15″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.14″
Hinckley, MN: 0.13″
Pine River, MN: 0.11″
Barnes, WI: 0.05″
Hayward, WI: 0.02″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.02″
Ashland, WI: 0.01″

Advertisements

A mid-level trough will move east out of the Pacific northwest and across the upper Midwest Sunday into early Monday — This feature could bring another round of scattered showers to parts of the Northland Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Saturday, August 6, 2022.

It does look like much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will remain dry tonight with a higher likelihood for rain farther south from south-central Minnesota into western, central and southern Wisconsin.

Chances for scattered showers will increase in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, with chances for some rain returning in Duluth and Superior especially Sunday evening/overnight.

HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Monday.

Advertisements

A higher impact rainfall event remains possible tonight through Sunday night from parts of southern Minnesota into central and southern Wisconsin.

HREF model continues to highlight parts of southern Minnesota, central and southern Wisconsin for heavy rainfall with totals of 2 to 5 inches or more possible through Sunday night.

Flash flooding is possible tonight and Sunday especially in the yellow outlined area on the map below.

Thanks for reading!

Tim