A few showers possible Thursday and Friday; Milder temps through this weekend, but a cooler lake breeze likely near Lake Superior Saturday-Sunday; Hurricane Ian update

5:31 PM Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Milder temperatures will return to the Northland the next few days with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 60s to around 70 Thursday through Sunday, but winds will become easterly near Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday which will keep temperatures on the cool side compared to inland locations.

A widespread freeze occurred in the Northland this morning, Wednesday, September 28, 2022. As a result of this, the National Weather Service in Duluth will not be issuing any more frost or freeze headlines for the rest of fall 2022.

Low Temperature reports from Wednesday morning, September 28, 2022

Source: NWS Duluth, MN

2 S Brimson, MN: 21 F
Embarrass, MN: 23 F
Eveleth, MN: 23 F
Seagull Lake, MN: 23 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport) 24 F
Glidden, WI: 24 F
Minong, WI: 24 F
Barnes, WI: 25 F
Cook, MN: 25 F
Ely, MN: 25 F
Eveleth-Virginia, MN (Airport) 25 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) 25 F
Aitkin, MN: 25 F
Hill City, MN: 25 F
Solon Springs, WI: 25 F
Hayward, WI: 25 F
Superior, WI (Airport) 26 F
Isabella, MN: 26 F
Siren, WI: 26 F
Ashland, WI: 27 F
Bigfork, MN: 27 F
International Falls, MN: 27 F
Orr, MN: 27 F
Hermantown, MN: 27 F
Spooner, WI: 27 F
Webb Lake, WI: 28 F
Saginaw, MN: 28 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 28 F
Northome, MN: 28 F
McGregor, MN: 28 F
Cloquet, MN: 28 F
Pine River, MN: 28 F
Cass Lake, MN: 28 F
Shell Lake, WI: 29 F
Winter, WI: 29 F
Hurley, WI: 29 F
Cable, WI: 29 F
Duluth, MN (Airport) 29 F
Brainerd, MN: 29 F
Littlefork, MN: 29 F
Winton, MN: 29 F
Washburn, WI: 30 F
Hinckley, MN: 30 F
Moose Lake, MN: 30 F
Esko, MN: 30 F
Deer River, MN: 31 F
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 34 F
Larsmont, MN: 35 F
Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 36 F

Note: Low of 29 at the Duluth Airport this morning (9/28/2022). Last time Duluth had a sub-freezing temperature was on May 4, 2022 (low of 30)

*First 32 degree or lower temperature last year in Duluth occurred on October 21. So, this year’s first 32 degree or lower temperature occurred much earlier compared to last year, but also occurred very close to the mean date of September 30 for the first 32 degree or lower temperature.

Low temperatures in the Northland Wednesday morning were well below normal for September 28th, but not cold enough to set new low temperature records for the date – See below

Ashland, WI: 12 set in 1893
Brainerd, MN: 19 set in 1942
Hibbing, MN: 20 set in 1967
International Falls, MN: 24 set in 1907
Duluth, MN: 24 set in 1961

No major systems will be impacting the Northland through this weekend, but a combination of a few things, including warm air advection, a low-level jet, and a frontal boundary moving south across the area may be enough to trigger a few rain showers at times beginning on Thursday and continuing through the day on Friday.

Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

There are some major differences with rainfall totals in our area through Friday, with the European model considerably wetter compared to other models.

Euro model is forecasting 1″+ rain totals in Duluth by 7 PM Friday.

HREF model is completely dry for Duluth with only a few pockets of 0.01″ rain totals in our area (light green colored areas)

Advertisements

HURRICANE IAN UPDATE

5 PM ET, Wednesday, September 28, 2022
Source: National Hurricane Center

Location: About 5 miles east of Punta Gorda, Florida. About 120 miles south-southwest of Orlando, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph (category 4 hurricane)

Present movement: north/northeast at 8 mph

Minimum central pressure: 945 mb/27.91 inches

*The center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn north on Friday and approach the northeast Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

*Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Forecast track of Ian.

T=Tropical Storm

Note: Ian weakens to a tropical storm on Friday as it crosses central Florida, but there is a chance that Ian will become a hurricane once again as it moves over the western Atlantic (pink outlined area) before making landfall somewhere in southern South Carolina Friday afternoon.

Peak Storm Surge Forecast

Ian Rainfall Forecast – Parts of central and northeast Florida could see 10-20″+ of rain.

Goes-16 satellite loops of Hurricane Ian (loop times end 5:37 PM ET, Wednesday, September 28, 2022)

Infrared imagery

Visible imagery

True color imagery

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Freeze Warning for the entire Northland tonight; Isolated showers possible late this week/weekend with milder temps; Hurricane Ian update

5:47 PM Tuesday, September 27, 2022

*Freeze Warning in effect for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Midnight tonight to 8 AM Wednesday.

*Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

*Temperatures will likely remain above freezing for areas adjacent/near Lake Superior, but frost is still possible.

Note: Temperatures dropped to the mid to upper 20s in parts of northeast Minnesota Tuesday morning, and with a better setup in place for colder temps tonight compared to last night, I still think it’s possible that we see a location or two in northern Minnesota drop down to around 20, to possibly as low as 18- or 19-degrees Wednesday morning.

Low Temperature reports from Tuesday morning, September 27, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

2 E Celina, MN: 26 F
Cook, MN: 28 F
Floodwood, MN: 29 F
Hibbing, MN: 30 F
Orr, MN: 30 F
Aitkin, MN: 30 F
Cloquet, MN: 30 F
Siren, WI: 31 F
McGregor, MN: 32 F
Walker, MN: 32 F
Solon Springs, WI: 32 F
Two Harbors, MN: 32 F
Pine River, MN: 32 F
Bigfork, MN: 32 F
Hayward, WI: 33 F
International Falls, MN: 34 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 34 F
Spooner, WI: 35 F
Superior, WI (Airport) 36 F
Butternut, WI: 36 F
Brainerd, MN: 38 F
Ashland, WI: 38 F

Duluth, MN (Airport) 34 F, coldest temperatures since May 5, 2022 (low of 33)

A cool air mass will remain over the Northland tonight, but a warming trend is likely the next few days with highs in the 60s on Thursday, and in the mid 60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday, but we are looking at an easterly wind near Lake Superior on Saturday which will lead to cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

As for rain chances — Isolated showers are possible in the Northland Thursday through this weekend, but widespread rains are unlikely.

The first snow of the season for Duluth may only be a few weeks away if one believes the European ensemble model.

The 50 member EPS model from September 25, 2022, shows the snow season in Duluth starting up sometime in mid-October ~15th to 20th time frame, and the 45-day snowfall forecast which runs through early November calls for snow totals ranging from a low end of 2″ to a high-end amount of ~6″.

Will see what happens!

Advertisements

Widespread frost and freeze warnings cover the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes tonight, while fire weather concerns along with Hurricane Ian impacts parts of the southeast U.S.

A strong and deep trough covers the eastern U.S. while Hurricane Ian lifts N-NE toward Florida.

Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 5 PM CT, Tuesday, September 27, 2022.

Advertisements

Source: National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE IAN UPDATE
5 PM ET/4 PM CT, Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Location: About 230 miles south of Sarasota, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph

Present movement: north at 10 mph

Minimum central pressure: 952 mb/28.12 inches

*The center of Hurricane Ian is forecast to pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight and approach the west coast of Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

*Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

*Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Naples to Sarasota region.

*Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian.

Here’s the forecast track of Ian. Numbers represent the category of Ian, with a category 4 or major hurricane expected as it approaches the west coast of Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night with max winds to 115 knots/132 mph, with gusts to 140 knots/161 mph.

The center of Hurricane Ian is forecast to pass somewhere between Tampa and Cape Coral, FL (yellow line on map) Wednesday and Wednesday night, with landfall possible in the Manasota Key to Boca Grande, FL corridor sometime Wednesday afternoon.

Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect for the west coast of Florida as well as for the northeast coast of Florida.

Potential Storm Surge (Inundation layer only) from Hurricane Ian

Blue – Greater than 1 foot above ground

Yellow – Greater than 3 feet above ground

Orange – Greater than 6 feet above ground

Red – Greater than 9 feet above ground

Here’s a zoomed in view of potential storm surge for the Tampa and St Petersburg, FL area.

And for the Port Charlotte and Cape Coral, FL area.

Rainfall potential through Sunday, October 2, 2022.

Red and pink colors represent rainfall totals of 10 to 15″+

Greatest Flash Flood Risk through Friday morning, September 30, 2022.

Satellite loops of Hurricane Ian (loop times end at 4:22 PM CT, Tuesday, September 27, 2022)

Goes-16 infrared imagery

Goes-16 visible imagery

Goes-16 true color imagery

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Frosty the next few nights; Warming trend later this week; Update on Hurricane Ian

5:04 PM Monday, September 26, 2022

*Frost Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM Tuesday including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Longville, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Virginia, Ely, Cook, Orr, Isabella, Superior, Solon Springs, Washburn, Bayfield, Siren, Minong, Shell Lake, Spooner, Winter and Hayward.

*Temperatures as low as 31 to 33 degrees will result in frost formation.

The next few nights will be on the chilly side in the Northland with Tuesday night looking like the coldest night as will have more favorable conditions in place for colder temps including mainly clear skies and light to calm winds. With that said we’re looking at lows in the 30s to around 40 tonight with a few 20s possible in the typical cold spots. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 20s and 30s, and there’s even a slight chance that we could see a location or two in northern Minnesota drop into the upper teens Tuesday night.

Daytime highs will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s Tuesday. 50s to around 60 Wednesday, mainly in the 60s Thursday, and then 60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday. Note: Normal highs in late September are in the low to mid 60s, and normal lows range from the mid 30s to low 40s.

A chilly air mass continues to move into the Northland today with 850mb temperatures as low as -2 to -8C just north of the border this afternoon. This chilly air mass will linger over the Northland into Tuesday before moving out mid-week.

Average Monthly Temperatures and Departure from Normal for September 2022 (thru the 25th)

Brainerd, MN: 63.8 F
Departure: +4.0 degrees above normal

Duluth, MN: 60.7 F
Departure: +2.4 degrees above normal

Ashland, WI: 59.6 F
Departure: +1.2 degrees above normal

International Falls, MN: 57.8 F
Departure: +2.6 degrees above normal

Hibbing, MN: 56.4 F
Departure: +2.5 degrees above normal

Departure from Normal Temperature for the U.S. for September 2022 (thru the 25th)

Orange and Red – Above Normal
Green – Below Normal
Yellow – Near Normal

Lowest Temperatures in the Northland so far this month

Ashland, WI: 30 on the 23rd
Hibbing, MN: 32 on the 23rd and 22nd
International Falls, MN: 34 on the 11th
Duluth, MN: 40 on 22nd
Brainerd, MN: 40 on the 12th and 11th

Pattern this week features troughing to the east and ridging off to the west — As the week progresses will see the ridge over the western U.S. move a little farther east.

The Northland will be in between the coolest temps (compared to normal) and warmest temps this week; however, the trend will be for warmer temperatures to move into our area later this week.

HURRICANE IAN

Latest update from the National Hurricane Center 5 PM ET/4 PM CT
Monday, September 26, 2022

Ian was located about 155 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds 100 mph (category 2 hurricane)

Present Movement: NNW at 13 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb/28.71 inches

Note: Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane by late tonight or Tuesday with winds >110 mph. Ian is then forecast to remain a major hurricane through late Wednesday night before slowly weakening as it moves onshore later this week (most likely on Thursday)

Zoomed in track of Hurricane Ian.

Note Ian is forecast to strengthen to a category 4 hurricane by Tuesday afternoon and then remain at a category 4 hurricane through Wednesday afternoon with wind speeds of 131 mph with maximum wind gusts near 160 mph.

Couple satellite loops of Hurricane Ian (loop times end 4:02 PM CT, Monday, September 26, 2022)

Goes-16 True Color imagery

Goes-16 visible imagery

Goes-16 infrared imagery

Storm Surge Warnings and Watches cover the west coast of Florida and parts of the northeast Florida Coast.

Peak Storm Surge of 5 to 10 feet is forecast for the Tampa Bay area.

European model 6-hour max wind gusts valid 8 AM ET/7 AM CT Tuesday through 8 AM ET/7 AM CT Saturday.

Rainfall totals of 6″+ are likely in much of Florida this week due to Hurricane Ian, with totals of 10″+ possible in parts of far western Florida.

Rainfall forecast through 7 PM Saturday, October 1, 2022.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cool temperatures into early next week followed by a warming trend later next week; Some rain (patchy fog) at times through Saturday; Isolated showers Sunday

6:03 PM Friday, September 23, 2022

*Upper level troughing and northwest flow aloft will help keep a cool air mass in place across the Northland over the next several days. Daytime highs will range from the mid 50s to low 60s Saturday with slightly warmer temps Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s, but then a reinforcing shot of cool air arrives Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 50s, but there is a chance that temperatures will warm to around 70 in parts of the Northland by later next week.

*Warmer overnight lows are expected this weekend, but colder temperatures with a chance for a frost/freeze are increasing for early next week, with next Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning having the greatest potential for widespread frost in the Northland the way it looks now.

*Expect some rain tonight into early Saturday morning followed by scattered showers during the day Saturday, with isolated showers Sunday.

*Sunshine will be scarce Saturday, but a little more sun is likely on Sunday.

Advertisements

Rainfall totals ranging from 0.10″ to 0.50″ are expected over much of the Northland through early Sunday morning, with the bulk of this rain falling tonight followed by some lingering rain showers at times Saturday and also on Sunday.

Note: Rainfall totals could exceed 0.50″ over parts of east-central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.

18z HRRR model radar forecast through 1 AM Sunday.

Here’s the low-pressure system which will affect the Northland the next few days. Note the spin over North Dakota on Goes-16 water vapor imagery.

Advertisements

HURRICANE FIONA UPDATE

5 PM AST/4 PM CT, Friday, September 23, 2022
Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Fiona was located about 370 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Maximum sustained winds: 125 mph
Present movement: North-northeast at 40 mph
Minimum central pressure: 940mb/27.76 inches

The center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday, then move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea by late Sunday.

Fiona is a category 3 hurricane with gradual weakening forecast during the next couple of days, but Fiona is expected to be a powerful hurricane-force cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada.

Snow with a hurricane?

Why yes, there will be some snow in the colder air on the NW side of Fiona Saturday into early Sunday. This snow will mainly impact parts of eastern Canada. Pretty crazy!

European model forecast valid 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday (Snow in blue colors)

Goes-16 satellite loops of Hurricane Fiona (loop times end 4:25 PM CT, Friday, September 23, 2022)

True Color imagery

Note how quickly Fiona is moving now compared to the last few days.

Infrared imagery

Advertisements

Low Temperature reports from Friday morning, September 23, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

Grand Marais, MN (Airport) 28 F
Brimson, MN: 28 F
Ashland, WI: 30 F
Crane Lake, MN: 30 F
Superior, WI (Airport) 30 F
Embarrass, MN: 31 F
Solon Springs, WI: 32 F
Eveleth, MN: 32 F
Hibbing, MN: 32 F
Ely, MN: 32 F
Two Harbors, MN: 34 F
Hurley, WI: 34 F
International Falls, MN: 35 F
Hayward, WI: 35 F
Cook, MN: 36 F

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Cool temperatures with some rain at times Friday-Saturday; Update on Hurricane Fiona; Drought update

5:19 PM Thursday, September 22, 2022

*Another cool night ahead in the Northland with areas of frost especially over eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin including for the Ashland and Hurley areas.

*Frost/freeze potential will return to much of the Northland early next week (September 26-28 time frame)

*Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight into Friday morning with generally mostly cloudy skies expected during the day Friday and on Saturday too.

*Some rain is likely in the Northland Friday and Saturday but with the cool air mass in place, instability will be limited so we shouldn’t see much if any thunderstorm activity which will reduce the threat for heavy rainfall with this system, instead we’re looking at mostly light rainfall rates.

*Rain chances look greatest Friday evening into early Saturday morning, but there are chances for showers during the day Friday, and also on Saturday.

*Sunday is looking like the nicer day of the weekend, but even on Sunday there are chances for a few showers, but we should also see a little more sun on Sunday compared to Saturday.

Advertisements

The system which will affect the Northland over the next few days looks pretty strong today as it impacts the Rockies.

Water vapor loop from Thursday, September 22, 2022.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

Advertisements

Drought Update – September 20, 2022

Drought is worsening over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin with the worse conditions continuing to be centered on the Twin Cities Metro area.

Here in the Northland, there’s no doubt that we’re doing a lot better in terms on the amount of precipitation we’ve had this year vs. last year, this is especially true in northern Minnesota, while parts of east-central Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin (South Shore area) have been running significantly drier compared to northern Minnesota.

4% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought, up from 1% last week.

14% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought, up from 10% last week.

41% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, up from 39% last week.

2% of Wisconsin is in Severe Drought, up from 0.70% last week.

9% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, up from 6% last week.

25% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, up from 15% last week.

Soil Moisture Conditions as of September 22, 2022.

Red, orange and yellow areas – Dry

Green and Blue areas – Wet

Precipitation Totals and Departure from Normal for 2022 (thru 4 PM September 22, 2022)

International Falls, MN: 31.53″
Departure: +11.49″ above normal

St. Cloud, MN: 27.36″
Departure: +4.46″ above normal

Duluth, MN: 25.67″
Departure: +1.72″ above normal

Eau Claire, WI: 24.95″
Departure: -1.49″ below normal

Minnesota/St. Paul, MN: 18.42″
Departure: -7.02″ below normal

Low Temperature Reports from Thursday morning, September 22, 2022
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

2 E Celina, MN: 32 F
2 S Brimson, MN: 34 F
Embarrass, MN: 34 F
Aurora, MN: 34 F
Eveleth, MN: 34 F
3 E Wright, MN: 34 F
Hayward, WI: 35 F
Littlefork, MN: 36 F
Two Harbors, MN: 36 F
Solon Springs, WI: 36 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 37 F
Cook, MN: 37 F
Ely, MN: 37 F
Eveleth-Virginia Airport: 37 F
2 W Drummond, WI: 37 F
Siren, WI: 38 F
Ashland, WI: 38 F
Esko, MN: 38 F
International Falls, MN: 38 F
Minong, WI: 39 F
Cloquet, MN: 39 F
Grand Marais Airport: 39 F
Superior Airport: 39 F
Duluth Airport: 40 F

Advertisements

HURRICANE FIONA

Latest update from the National Hurricane Center 2 PM ET/1 PM CT
Thursday, September 22, 2022

Location: About 345 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. About 1085 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Maximum sustained winds: 130 mph (category 4 hurricane)

Fiona is moving north-northeast at 16 mph and has a minimum central pressure of 936mb/27.64 inches.

The center of Fiona will pass just west of Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Central pressure of Hurricane Fiona is forecast to deepen from around 935mb this evening, to possibly as low as 920mb as it approaches Nova Scotia Friday night, that is an incredibly strong system!

500mb height anomalies with Hurricane Fiona could drop as low as -550 meters, some -5 sigma below normal. This really is an anomalous event!

Here’s a few different satellite loops of Hurricane Fiona — Loop time on all three ends 3:42 PM CT, Thursday, September 22, 2022.

Infrared imagery

Visible imagery

True Color imagery

A strong upper-level trough over the northeast U.S. will move east and will phase with Hurricane Fiona as it lifts N-NE over the next few days, fascinating!

Here’s an animation showing the two systems phasing over the next few days.

Forecast ends 7 AM Sunday, September 25, 2022.

Wave height forecast through 7 AM Sunday per European model.

Wave heights of 30 to 50 feet with maximum wave heights of 70 to 90 feet are forecast across the Atlantic over the next few days associated with Hurricane Fiona.

Thanks for reading!

Tim