6:38 PM Saturday, February 4, 2023
Snow is possible over much of the Northland late Monday afternoon/night as a low-pressure system and trough move east out of the Northern and Central Plains.
A strong low-level jet out of the south at around 40 to 60 knots is forecast to develop out ahead of this system on Monday with increasing amounts of moisture with precipitable water increasing to around 1/2″.
There are even some hints of weak instability showing up on the computer models over parts of Minnesota late Monday with CAPE to around 100 j/kg along with an area of steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 8.0 c/km. What this implies is that we could see some convective like snow bursts over portions of the Northland late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
The limiting factor for a more significant snow event on Monday is the quick movement of this system, with most of the snow falling in a 3-to-6-hour window.
As for temperatures — They will be hovering around 30 to 33 degrees while it’s snowing Monday evening so the snow that falls and accumulates could be that wet slushy type of snow, and there is even a possibility that we could see more of a mix of rain/snow if precipitation rates aren’t heavy enough.
An area of enhanced lift, albeit quick moving is forecast to spread northeast out of southern Minnesota late Monday afternoon out ahead of a disturbance marked by an X on the map. As this stronger lift moves over the Northland, we could see some heavier snow bursts for a few hours late Monday afternoon/evening.
Monday morning into at least mid-afternoon Monday look dry across the Northland with snow chances increasing from SW-NE late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening the way it looks now.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid Noon Monday to Midnight Monday night.
Snowfall accumulations ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 inches are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late Monday afternoon through Monday night.
Comparing the two arctic outbreaks we’ve seen this winter in Duluth.
December 18-26, 2022
9 subzero nights
Average Temperature: -2.9 degrees
Departure: -18.1 degrees below average
Lowest temperature: -18 degrees on Dec. 21st.
January 28-February 4, 2023
8 subzero nights
Average Temperature: -5.2 degrees
Departure: -16.5 degrees below average
Lowest temperature: -22 degrees on Feb. 3rd.
Arctic air mass continues to retreat to the north/east today, and this arctic air won’t be moving back into the Northland at least through the upcoming week the way it looks now.
500mb heights are on the rise across the upper Midwest as a milder air mass moves in.
Thanks for reading!