Issued at 3:56 PM CST, Monday, December 20th, 2010
…Winter Storm to affect the area through Tuesday…
Weather tidbits:
*Going into Today our last 1.0″ or greater snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota was on December 9th when 2.4″ of snow fell.
*This Morning marked the 9th time this month with a subzero low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. Looking at past December’s dating back to 2005, only one has featured more subzero minimum temperatures then this one. December of 2008 produced 15 nights with below zero temperatures.
Low temperature report for Monday, December 20th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
Duluth, MN: -8 degrees
International Falls, MN: -12 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -10 degrees
Hayward, WI: -10 degrees
Bigfork, MN: -9 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: -8 degrees
Siren, WI: -9 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN: -10 degrees
Littlefork, MN: -10 degrees
Floodwood, MN: -11 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN: -11 degrees
Upson, WI: -12 degrees
Gordon, WI: -8 degrees
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Western North Dakota with a 1004 mb low centered in Northern Nebraska as of 3 PM CST. Clouds increased across our area Today with snow spreading in from the southwest. The snow line as of 4 PM was along and south of Highway 2. High temperatures Today were in the teens to lower 20s with winds turning to the east or southeast under 20 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Pineapple express is in full swing with a tremendous feed of moisture stretching from the Hawaiian Islands through the Southwest U.S., Central-Southern Rockies with mid/high level moisture streaming into the Central/Southern Plains as well Today per water vapor satellite imagery. A deep 500mb trough was in place across the Central-North Pacific with multiple upper level lows churning just off the Pacific Northwest coast. Closer to home, a rather impressive upper level low/upper trough was progressing east through the Northern Plains This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with a potent mid/upper level jet (90 knots) and (140 knots) respectively, located on the south-southwest side of this system per RUC model analysis.
Winter Weather Headline information, source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 6 PM CST Tuesday for Central and Southern Louis county MN, Southern Itasca county MN, Carlton county MN, Douglas county WI, Bayfield county WI, Ashland county WI, and Iron county WI.
*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 12 PM CST Tuesday for Cass county MN, Crow Wing county MN, Aitkin county MN, Pine county MN, Burnett county WI, Washburn county WI, Sawyer county WI, and Price county WI.
*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Southern Lake county MN and Southern Cook county MN.
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 6 PM CST Tuesday for Koochiching county MN, Northern St. Louis county MN, and Northern Itasca county MN.
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Northern Lake MN and Northern Cook MN.
Tonight:
Low pressure will move into Westcentral Minnesota with a 30-35 knot SE low level jet, PWS up to one half inch (very high for the time of year) and warm advection continuing east of this low which will lead to widespread snow for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Some of the snow could be moderate to heavy at times with visibilities as low as a half mile. Temperatures Tonight will remain nearly steady from Today’s highs with teens and 20s in our area. Winds will be out of the east or southeast under 20 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night:
Low pressure will take on a negative tilt as it heads east and slightly east of southeast during this period. The low will reach Western Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning before reaching the Southern part of Wisconsin by early Tuesday Evening. Snow should continue at times on Tuesday, although it will taper off especially in southern parts of our local area. By Tuesday Night only some scattered flurries can be expected. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the teens. Winds will vary between the east to the southwest on Tuesday with north or east winds Tomorrow Night. Wind speeds will remain under 20 mph through this period.
Concerning the lake enhanced/lake effect snow potential:
Water temperatures over Lake Superior were generally in the 1-3 degree C range (35-38 degrees F) with 850 mb temperatures expected to hold nearly steady around -8 degrees C. We should see some lake enhanced snowfall along the North Shore of Lake Superior, down through Duluth with favorable east or east-southeast surface winds in place through Tuesday Morning, by Tuesday Afternoon and Evening the surface winds are forecast to become more east-northeast before they turn to the north Tuesday Night. Additional lake effect snow showers should continue near Lake Superior on Tuesday before the lake effect threat shifts more to the South Shore of Lake Superior by late Tuesday Night.
…Expected snowfall totals by Tuesday Night…
*Locations north of the Iron Range, including the cities of International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, Ely, and Crane Lake, MN including the counties of Koochiching, Northern Itasca, and Northern St. Louis counties: 2-4″.
*Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Leader, Brainerd, Cross Lake, Hill City, Aitkin, McGrath, Pine City, Hinckley, MN, Danbury, Grantsburg, Minong, Spooner, Hayward, Park Falls, and Phillips, WI including the counties of Southern Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price: 4-7″.
*Duluth, Floodwood, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Finland, Silver Bay, Lutsen, Grand Marais, MN, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Bayfield, Cable, Ashland, Drummond, Hurley, Mercer, and Upson, WI including the counties of Central and Southern St. Louis, Lake, Cook, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron: 4-8″ with localized totals of 8-12″ along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast:
The upper level pattern will become rather amplified once again from late this week into early next week. A new storm system is expected to drop south/east out of the Rockies and will pass through the Southern Plains, then east to the Western Atlantic during the holiday weekend while strong high pressure builds south from Manitoba Province this weekend. The period from Wednesday through the weekend looks mainly dry at this time for our local area, although some lake effect snow showers can’t be ruled out at times from Friday into the weekend for the South Shore of Lake Superior. High temperatures will be mainly in the 20s on Wednesday with teens and 20s for Thursday. Lows will be in the single digits and teens Wednesday Night and Thursday Night. Next week will need to be watched as recent runs per GFS and EUROPEAN models have hinted at a storm, or a couple systems moving out of the Western U.S. Of course the track and timing of any such system that far out in time is not set in stone, and the overall 500mb pattern will tend to dictate what may happen for next week as some GFS model runs also continued the highly amplified N/NW pattern for the Upper Midwest which would detour any system well to our west/south.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Timing: Until 6 PM CST Tuesday.
.Tonight… Snow. Low 15 to 20. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Occasional snow. High 26 to 31. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Snow showers during the Evening, flurries Overnight. Total storm accumulations of 4-8″ with localized greater amounts possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph, becoming north Overnight.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 23 to 28.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 17 to 22.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Christmas Eve… Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.
Normal temperatures for Today:
High: 21 degrees
Low: 4 degrees
Tim