4/30/11: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Saturday, April 30th, 2011

Weather headlines:

-Strong spring storm passing west-north of us thru Sunday
-Isolated thunderstorm risk This Evening
-Scattered snow showers possible late Tonight thru Sunday for Northern Minnesota?
-Next system set to arrive the mid to late part of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Powerful low pressure of 990mb was centered near Jamestown, North Dakota as of 4 PM.  An occluded front attached to this low was pushing northeast out of Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  A 45-65 knot low level jet, PWS nearing 1.00″ combined with strong lift associated with the low and also because of a strong mid/upper level jet stream caused widespread rain in our area Today with some heavy downpours in some locations.  Hasn’t been much in the way of thunderstorm activity with this system due to the lack of instability and warm air, but a few lightning strikes were being detected in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin earlier This Afternoon.  Highs Today were in the 40s with some 50s showing up in the Pine River and Brainerd, MN areas as a dry slot (partial clearing) lifts E-NE into Central Minnesota This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the south, east, or west at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

The same storm giving us rain Today is hammering parts of North Dakota with a spring blizzard.  Winds of 50-70 mph combined with falling snow has resulted in blizzard conditions Today with I-94 closed west of Dickinson, ND to the Montana border.  So far, 4.0″ of snow had fallen at Bowman, North Dakota with 5.1″ of snow at Williston, North Dakota per Bismarck NWS report.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Strong surface and upper level low in the Dakotas with 120-150 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was spreading northeast into the Upper Midwest late Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  An 80 knot mid level jet streak and a 120 knot upper level jet streak were moving northeast from Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa Today.  Plenty of cold air was found on the back side of this storm in Northern and the Western half of North Dakota with temperatures only in the 20s This Afternoon while it was in the 70s from Southeast Iowa to near Chicago, Illinois.  Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from -8 degrees C in Northwest North Dakota to +4 degrees C at Duluth, Minnesota to +10 degrees C at Chicago, Illinois.

Tonight:

Low pressure of around 991mb will reach Southwest Ontario Province Overnight.  Steady rain in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from southwest to northeast between 6-8PM This Evening.  A dry slot surging north/east out ahead of the upper level low will cause the atmosphere to become slightly unstable through mid-Evening as some partial clearing takes place.  CAPE values of 100-200 j/kg combined with lapse rates around 7.0 c/km and Lifted Indices nearing zero degrees C might be enough to trigger a few fast moving showers or thunderstorms This Evening in Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  None of these storms are expected to be severe, but brief gusty winds and possibly some small hail may accompany one or two of the more robust storms through mid-Evening.  A strong push of cold air advection will sweep in from the west-southwest late Tonight as 850mb temperatures drop to between -4 and -8 degrees C Overnight.  Lingering showers will occur after Midnight, and as colder air moves in and thickness values lower, the potential does exist for the rain showers to mix with and turn to snow showers and flurries mainly in the North half of Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s with winds becoming southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Deep low pressure of 992-995mb will track into Central-Northern Ontario Province during this period.  Unseasonably cold air will be found on the back side of this low with 850mb temperatures around -5 degrees C on Sunday, dropping to -8 to -12 degrees C Sunday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will only be in the 30s and 40s which will be 15 to 20+ degrees below average for the 1st day of May.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday Night.  A few showers of snow or rain are possible on Sunday with mainly dry weather for Sunday Night.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of up to 1″ are possible late Tonight and Sunday in Northern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Monday and Tuesday, May 2nd and 3rd look dry at this time with highs on Monday in the 40s to around 50 degrees with highs for Tuesday in the 50s to lower 60s.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s Monday Night with 30s on tap for Tuesday Night.  Wednesday through Friday, May 4th-6th could turn unsettled once again as a W-NW flow develops which will send some disturbances in our direction, there will also be a surface low and cold front moving across the Upper Midwest from mid to late week.  Rounds of showers could develop from Wednesday through Friday with isolated Afternoon thunderstorms possible as well.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Turning windy.  Partial clearing early.  Becoming mostly cloudy by mid-Evening.  A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10 PM.  A few showers possible Overnight.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday…  Windy and cool.  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible which could mix with snow especially during the Morning.  High 38 to 43.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 29 to 32.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 52 to 57.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  57
Low:  35

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:19 PM CDT

Tim

4/29/11: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:22 PM CDT, Friday, April 29th, 2011

Weather tidbits:  Source:  TWC.  Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

-Preliminary tornado count from Wednesday April 27th, 2011 is up to 211
-Death toll from Wednesday’s historic tornado outbreak is up to 318 which surpasses the 307 fatalities from the Super Outbreak of 1974
-The tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama late Wednesday Afternoon may have been on the ground for 200 continuous miles! The all time record is 219 continuous miles during the Tri State tornado outbreak of 1925 which resulted in over 600 deaths

Above average tornado season ahead for Minnesota?

Source:  NWS and Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

An April that finished in the top ten for most tornadoes in the country has led to an above average season for both Minnesota and Wisconsin in 6 of those 10 years.

In years with La Nina (cooler than normal waters in the Eastern Pacific) of similar strength and a similar trend of gradual waning had an equal amount of active and non-active tornado seasons for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

*2.5 magnitude earthquake early This Morning at Alexandria, Minnesota.  This earthquake happened at 2:20 AM CDT This Morning, Friday, April 29th, 2011.  Source:  USGS

Distance from the epicenter of the earthquake from a few other Minnesota cities:

39 miles southeast of Fergus Falls, Minnesota
55 miles north-northwest of Willmar, Minnesota
127 miles west-northwest of St. Paul, Minnesota

Precipitation update for Duluth, Minnesota for April 2011, thru the 29th:

Total precipitation:  2.68″
Departure from average:  +0.75″

21 days have had at least a trace of precipitation.  15 days have had at least a trace of snow.

Note:  3 day precipitation total at Duluth, MN (April 26th-29th, 2011)  0.64″ with 1.2″ of snow

Weather headlines:

-Clouds increase Tonight, rain threat goes up Overnight
-Rainy Saturday ahead
-Isolated thunderstorm risk late Tonight thru Saturday
-Windy and colder Saturday Night and Sunday
-Frozen precipitation possible for Northern Minnesota late this weekend?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

High pressure pushed off to our east Today with low pressure of 992-994mb stretching from the Northern Plains to Central Plains.  Broad southerly flow was occurring in our area behind the high and east of the low.  Temperatures Today were above average in most areas with highs in the 60s, but a lake wind kept temperatures in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies covered our area Today with south or east winds at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.  Note:  Temperatures This Afternoon were in the middle 70s as far north as Eastern Nebraska with 90 degree temperatures in extreme Southwest Kansas with low 100s in Northwest Mexico.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was digging south across the Northcentral Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery with an area of 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls accompanying this latest storm.  Southwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this storm with an upper level ridge pulling off to our east late Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure of around 995mb will be centered to our west.  A strengthening low level jet from the south of 50-65 knots will lead to a warm/moist advection pattern in our area.  Late Afternoon PWS around 1/4″ will increase to 0.75″ Overnight.  Look for showers to become more widespread late Tonight due to the low level jet, warm/moist advection pattern.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with elevated CAPE at or below 100 j/kg.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s, but some 30s are expected near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph.

Saturday:

Deep low pressure of around 994mb will lift through the Eastern Dakotas/Northwestern Minnesota.  Southerly winds and a strong low level jet of 40-65 knots will continue ahead of this low on Saturday with plenty of moisture in place with PWS around 0.75″ and dewpoints in the 40s.  A strong cold front attached to this low will swing northeast and through our local area Tomorrow while a potent disturbance moves east out of the Dakotas.  Rain looks to be fairly widespread in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday with isolated thunderstorms possible as well, especially during the Afternoon as a dry slot surges E-NE out of Western Minnesota.  Latest forecast models indicate that CAPE values will increase to around 100-200 j/kg Saturday Afternoon which combined with the strength of this system would allow a few thunderstorms to fire up, this threat would only increase if we get some some sunshine Saturday Afternoon, but that potential continues to look low.  Note:  Another weather problem on Saturday may be the formation of some fog near Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or southwest at 10-25 mph.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts of 0.25″-0.50″ can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Tonight through Saturday with localized greater amounts approaching 0.75″.

The same storm which will give us rain Tonight and Saturday will produce heavy snow and blizzard conditions Saturday into early Sunday in parts of North Dakota with snowfall accumulations possibly exceeding 6″ in some areas.

Saturday Night:

Low pressure of around 993mb will reach Western Ontario Province with a strong cold front exiting our area to the east.  Strong cold air advection will kick in behind the low and cold front as 850mb temperatures tumble to -4 to -12 degrees C.  Variably cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with a few rain showers which could mix with or turn to snow showers in Northern Minnesota late Tomorrow Night.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with southwest or west winds at 15-30 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure will track through Central Canada on Sunday with a continued threat for lingering rain and or snow showers for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will only reach the 30s and 40s.  Clearing skies can be expected Sunday Night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.  Dry weather is in the forecast for Monday, May 2nd with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Increasing cloudiness.  Occasional showers after 3 AM.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible during the Afternoon.  Mostly cloudy with areas of fog.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming south away from Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night…  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday…  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 27 to 32.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  56
Low:  34

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:17 PM CDT

Tim

4/28/11: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CDT, Thursday, April 28th, 2011

Amazing, but deadly tornado outbreak hit parts of the Southern U.S. on Wednesday, April 27th, 2011.  Preliminary tornado count is up to 171 as of late This Afternoon.  Note:  This is just a preliminary number and will likely go up or down in coming days.

Death toll from Wednesday is up to 280 per TWC report.

Alabama:   195 fatalities
Tennessee:   34 fatalities
Mississippi:  32 fatalities
Georgia:      14 fatalities
Virginia:         5 fatalities

Note:  April 27th, 2011 may go down as being one of the top 5 deadliest tornado days in U.S. history.

A massive amount of severe weather during the past few days.  Source:  SPC.

April 24th, 2011:  203 severe weather reports/15 tornadoes
April 25th, 2011:  438 severe weather reports/44 tornadoes
April 26th, 2011:  720 severe weather reports/68 tornadoes
April 27th, 2011:  754 severe weather reports/171 tornadoes

4 day total:  2,115 severe weather reports/298 tornadoes

Weather headlines:

-Quiet weather Tonight and Friday
-Near to above average temperatures in store for Friday
-Rain arrives Friday Night and lingers thru Saturday
-Isolated thunderstorm risk late Friday Night and again Saturday Afternoon

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Deep low pressure of 986mb has moved into Western Quebec Province late This Afternoon.  Moisture wrapping around that low caused an area of rain or mixed rain and snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Morning into the early Afternoon hours, but as the Afternoon wore on skies cleared out from north to south with high temperatures pushing into the 50s with even a few lower 60s in the Brainerd and Aitkin, MN areas.  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous 500mb trough/low was moving slowly toward the south/east through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  A brief upper level ridge/westerly 500mb was pushing east into the Northern Plains while the next system with it’s potent H5 low/trough digs south/east into the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Skies will become clear to partly cloudy as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Lows will be in the 30s with westerly winds under 15 mph.

Friday:

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny are expected with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s, but it will turn cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Friday Night:

Low pressure moves into the Northern and Central Plains.  50-70 knot southerly 850mb jet develops out ahead of this system with warm/moist advection lifting north into Minnesota.  Elevated instability will move in from the southwest with CAPES approaching 100 j/kg.  Rain will develop and move in from the southwest with isolated thunderstorms possible as well due to the strong low level jet/warm-moist advection pattern.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are forecast Tomorrow Night with south or east winds at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure of 988-993mb will pass west-north of our area Saturday and Sunday.  Cold front attached to that low will push east and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday.  Occasional rain through early Afternoon will give way to a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms from mid to late Afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit out ahead of a potent disturbance which will approach the area from the Dakotas.  Thunderstorm threat for Saturday Afternoon will be somewhat greater if we can clear out a bit, right now that doesn’t look very likely, so any storm that develops should be few and far between.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s.  A big push of cold air advection will move into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Night and Sunday behind this system with 850mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -12 degrees C! Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Sunday only in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the teens in Northern Minnesota with 20s to around 30 degrees elsewhere.  The period from Saturday Night through Sunday Night look mainly dry at this time, but a few showers of rain or snow can’t be ruled out especially in Northern areas of Minnesota.

Note:  Rainfall totals of one quarter to one half inch are still expected Friday Night and Saturday across our area with localized greater amounts of around 0.75″

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest to west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Increasing cloudiness.  Occasional rain developing after 11 PM.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 38 to 42.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Occasional rain during the Morning along with patchy fog.  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered Afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 41 to 46.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 27 to 32.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  56
Low:  34

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:57 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim

4/27/11: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:21 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 27th, 2011

Another significant late season snowfall across parts of our area Tuesday and Wednesday, April 26th-27th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

2 miles northwest of Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  9.0″ measured in elevated terrain, 200 feet higher than the city of Mellen.
4 miles east of Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  8.0″
Maple, WI (Douglas county)  6.5″
Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  6.0″
4 miles west of Washburn, WI (Bayfield county)  6.0″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield county)  6.0″
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)  5.5″
3 miles northwest of Bennett, WI (Douglas county)  5.5″
Oulu, WI (Bayfield county)  4.8″
Tower, MN (St. Louis county)  4.5″
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas county)  4.3″
High Bridge, WI (Ashland county)  4.0″
Poplar, WI (Douglas county)  4.0″
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0″
Glidden, WI (Ashland county)  3.0″
3 miles west of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  3.0″
20 miles north of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  3.0″
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis county)  3.0″
Upson, WI (Iron county)  3.0″
10 miles south of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  2.5″
2 miles southeast of Finland, MN (Lake county)  2.5″
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  2.5″
6 miles south of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  2.0″
Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  2.0″
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  2.0″
3 miles northwest of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  1.5″
1 mile north of Mille Lacs Lake, MN (Aitkin county)  1.5″
Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  1.0″

6 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  1.0″ measured at the NWS.

An incredible severe weather outbreak continues Today across parts of the Southern/Southeast U.S., through portions of the Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S.  Source:  Storm Prediction Center

*700 preliminary severe weather reports/61 tornadoes on Tuesday, April 26th, 2011
*74 preliminary tornado reports (thru 5 PM CDT Today) this number will likely exceed 100 by late Tonight

Weather headlines:

-Lingering snow and rain thru Thursday Morning
-Friday looks nice
-Next storm with a new rain threat arrives Friday Night and lingers thru Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Tuesday’s low has moved into Northeast Wisconsin This Afternoon with two other lows (994-996mb), one centered in Northwest Lake Huron, the other in Southeast Missouri lifting north-northeast.  Overcast skies with lingering rain and snow were found in our area Today with some rather vigorous snow bursts at times.  Highs Today were in the 30s to lower 40s with north or east winds under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low/trough covered the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today with the combination of cold temperatures aloft (around -25 degree C H5 temps) and some instability with capes of a couple hundred j/kg was helping to trigger a few pop up thunderstorms This Afternoon over parts of the Dakotas.  Very strong jet stream winds >110 knots extending from the Southern Rockies to Northern Mississippi is fueling the historic severe weather outbreak that is ongoing in the Southern U.S. Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes with an upper level low moving slowly toward the south-east across the Upper Midwest.  Snow or a mix of snow and rain showers will persist in our area Tonight with new snow accumulations of 1-2″ possible in a few locations.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 30s with north or east winds under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Surface and upper level low will continue to push slowly toward the east on Thursday, lingering rain and snow showers will be found in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, little additional snow accumulation is expected though.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the 40s with a few 50s possible in western areas.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the 30s.

Extended Forecast:

Friday looks dry with high pressure pushing through the area.  Highs on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Rain threat increases Friday Night into Saturday as low pressure passes northwest-north of our area while a cold front attached to that low heads east through our area on Saturday.  A strong southerly low level jet of 40-60 knots will be in place along and ahead of the cold front Friday Night through midday Saturday which will pull deeper moisture north into our area.  Current indications point to a quarter to one half inch of rain for most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday Night and Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Saturday in the 40s and 50s with falling temperatures to the 30s in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  There might be a few lingering showers Saturday Night behind this system, and some snow could mix with the rain showers in Northern Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Occasional snow showers which will be mixed with drizzle or light rain at times.  New snowfall accumulations up to 1″.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Occasional snow or rain showers mainly during the Morning.  Snow accumulations less than 1″.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night…  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible Overnight.  Low 38 to 42.

.Saturday…  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  55
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:14 PM CDT

Tim

4/26/11: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Bayfield…Ashland…and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Iron River WI…Cable WI…Ashland WI…Butternut WI…Upson WI…Gile WI…and Hurley WI.

Impacts:  A mixture of rain and snow, turning to snow at times will continue through Thursday Morning.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5″ can be expected by Wednesday Evening.  The greatest amounts will occur in higher elevated areas.  Roads will become snow and slush covered in some areas.  Expect areas of difficult travel.  Slow down and use caution while driving.

High temperature report for Monday, April 25th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  65 degrees
International Falls, MN:  64 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  66 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  68 degrees
Ashland, WI:  69 degrees
Hayward, WI:  67 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  63 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  66 degrees
Orr, MN:  68 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  68 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  66 degrees
Superior, WI:  70 degrees
Phillips, WI:  68 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  68 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  66 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  66 degrees
Finland, MN:  66 degrees
Upson, WI:  67 degrees

Weather headlines:

-Wet, gray, and cool thru Wednesday
-Several inches of wet slushy snow still expected Tonight and Wednesday Morning for parts of the area
-Slight improvement in the weather for Thursday
-Next storm expected to hit Friday Night with lingering impacts into the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A tale of two seasons across our area Today with spring like warmth with highs in the 50s in Northern Minnesota with temperatures in the 40s, falling to the 30s thanks to evaporative cooling in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota.  Strong low pressure of 994mb was centered in Southern Wisconsin This Afternoon with widespread precipitation occurring from Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota.  Rain was the main precipitation type thru mid-Afternoon, but colder air was spreading southwest into areas near Lake Superior which has caused the rain to mix with and change to snow, some moderate to heavy snow bursts have been occurring in some spots late This Afternoon.  Winds Today were very strong near Lake Superior where 20-35 mph sustained east-northeast wind speeds have occurred Today with gusts to 45 mph.  Winds farther inland were in the 10-25 mph range Today.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Broad 500mb trough was in place from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest with a strong upper level low spinning slowly north from Iowa per water vapor satellite imagery.  A powerhouse jet stream >120 knot winds per RUC model analysis extended from Oregon, southeast to Western Texas and it’s this energy which will help fuel another major severe weather outbreak for the Southern Plains, Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions Tonight.  Note:  418 preliminary severe weather reports/40 tornadoes occurred in parts of the Southern Plains, Tennesse and Southern Ohio Valley regions on Monday, April 25th, 2011 per SPC.

Tonight:

Surface low will weaken to around 998mb as it heads into Northeast Wisconsin while a strong upper level low lifts north into Western Wisconsin-Eastern Minnesota Tonight.  Expect rain and snow in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota Tonight with precipitation becoming all snow at times in some locations.  850mb temperatures are forecast to drop to between -2 and -4 degrees C Tonight which is sufficiently cold enough to support frozen precipitation, temperatures near the surface will be marginal, however, except for higher elevated areas in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota.  Northern Minnesota, or along and north of a Blackduck, Bigfork, to Crane Lake, MN line should remain generally dry Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s with north or east winds at 10-25 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Slow moving surface and upper level area of low pressure will remain over the Western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest during this period while a stronger area of low pressure heads northeast from the Arklatex.  Lingering rain and snow showers are expected throughout the area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows mainly in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the north, east, or northwest at 10-25 mph.

Note:  Widespread precipitation totals of 0.10″-0.25″ are expected by Wednesday Night for Northern Minnesota with a corridor of 0.25″-0.75″ for Northwest Wisconsin and also in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ are expected by Wednesday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized greater amounts of 3-5″ in higher elevated areas, about 10-15 miles from Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Canada on Thursday with still a lingering threat for some rain or snow showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin especially Thursday Morning.  A period of dry weather is expected Thursday Night through Friday Evening before the next storm system moves into the Upper Midwest this weekend.  Another round of rain can be expected in our area from late Friday Night into Saturday Evening with lingering showers Saturday Night into Sunday.  High temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s on Thursday with lows Thursday Night in the 30s.  Highs on Friday will reach the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Snow mixing at times with drizzle and rain in higher elevated areas.  A mixture of rain, drizzle, and snow closer to Lake Superior.  Breezy.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″.

.Wednesday…  Rain and snow showers.  Snow accumulations under 1″.  Mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or snow showers.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Rain or snow showers possible early.  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night…  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible Overnight.  Low 38 to 42.

.Saturday…  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 42 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  55
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:01 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:13 PM CDT

Tim