Issued at 4:05 PM CDT, Monday, July 18th, 2011
High temperature report for Sunday, July 17th, 2011
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
International Falls, MN: 91 degrees
Ashland, WI: 93 degrees
Hayward, WI: 92 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: 90 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: 90 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 91 degrees
McGregor, MN: 90 degrees
Hinckley, MN: 90 degrees
Superior, WI: 90 degrees
Siren, WI: 91 degrees
Phillips, WI: 91 degrees
Floodwood, MN: 90 degrees
Ashland, WI: 94 degrees
Park Falls, WI: 91 degrees
Upson, WI: 91 degrees
Solon Springs, WI: 93 degrees
Winter, WI: 91 degrees
Rainfall report for Sunday and early Monday, July 17th-18th, 2011
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
Hibbing, MN: 0.20″
Hayward, WI: 0.96″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.19″
Northome, MN: 0.65″
Walker, MN: 0.15″
Finland, MN: 0.22″
Butternut, WI: 0.24″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 0.49″
Winter, WI: 0.37″
Weather Tidbits:
*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN.
*Today’s 90 degree temperature at Duluth, MN is our 2nd one this month.
*NOAA estimates 62 million people are under an advisory or warning for excessive heat.
*81 dewpoint at Minneapolis, MN on Sunday, July 17th, 2011 ties the previous record high dewpoint temperature of 81 degrees last set on July 30th, 1999.
*86 dewpoint and a heat index of 119 degrees was reported at 6 PM CDT Sunday, July 17th, 2011 in Madison, Minnesota per Paul Douglas report.
*81 dewpoint at St. Paul, MN on July 17th, 2011 was higher than the dewpoint at Fiji: 70 degrees. Galveston, TX: 68 degrees. And Dubai: 52 degrees per Paul Douglas report.
Heat Index temperatures around Minnesota as of 4:00 PM CDT Today.
Twin Cities: 112 degrees
Moorhead: 105 degrees
Duluth: 97 degrees
Madison: 118 degrees
St. Cloud: 108 degrees
Aitkin: 105 degrees
Litchfield: 107 degrees
Rush City: 105 degrees
Hinckley: 105 degrees
Canby: 112 degrees
Marshall: 117 degrees
Redwood Falls: 117 degrees
Olivia: 115 degrees
Pipestone: 113 degrees
Tracy: 112 degrees
Mankato: 110 degrees
St. James: 114 degrees
Owatonna: 114 degrees
Rochester: 114 degrees
Austin: 117 degrees
WEATHER HEADLINES:
-Hot temperatures persist into mid-week
-Brief break from the high humidity in Northern areas thru Tuesday Morning
-Some cooling near Lake Superior thru Tuesday
-Blast furnace type heat possible on Wednesday?
-Much lower humidity arrives on Thursday
-Thunderstorm potential into mid-week, possible severe storms and torrential rain if storms can pop
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
A weak stationary front extended from Central Wisconsin to Southern Minnesota late This Afternoon with a push of drier air nosing south into Northern Minnesota Today. Dewpoints late Today were in the 70s along and south of Highway 2 while north of Highway 2, dewpoints were in the 50s to around 60 degrees. High temperatures were in the middle 80s to lower 90s Today with slightly cooler temperatures close to Lake Superior. Afternoon heat indices were in the 90s to low 100s in parts of our area. Winds Today were variable under 12 mph. The atmosphere continues to be highly charged in terms of instability Today with CAPE of 2000-4500 j/kg as of 4 PM per meso-analysis with Lifted Indices of -5 to -10 degrees C south of the Iron Range and Arrowhead. There were a few thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota early This Morning, and then in portions of Northwest Wisconsin through mid-Afternoon. One of the storms became severe along the North Shore, near Finland This Morning while the storms in Northwest Wisconsin stayed below severe levels Today.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A classic summer-time heat wave is in place with a massive 5940 meter upper level high pressure ridge covering the Central Plains, Southern U.S. along with parts of the Rockies, Upper Midwest and Southern Great Lakes per RUC model analysis. W-NW 500mb flow was occurring across the Upper Great Lakes Today on the northern edge of this heat dome while a nearly stationary upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest
Tonight:
Dry for Northwest Wisconsin and for the Arrowhead, Iron Range and Borderland regions. Western-Southern areas may be a different story as Sunday’s cold front which was stationary This Afternoon starts to lift back north as a warm front beginning late Tonight. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms have already broken out This Afternoon in a warm air advection regime in parts of North Dakota and Western Minnesota and some of this activity may affect locations south and southwest of Highway 2 Tonight. Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin and Southern Itasca Counties MN are most at risk with a lesser chance for Pine, Carlton and South St. Louis Counties MN. Severe weather is not expected with the thunderstorms Tonight, but torrential rain is possible due to the extreme amounts of moisture. Dangerous lightning will also be a threat. Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s, but a few 50s are possible in the Arrowhead. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected and patchy fog may develop late Tonight, similar to the past few nights. Winds will be variable under 12 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night:
A warm front will be lifting N-NE into our area during this period. Plenty of instability, wind shear and moisture will be in place as this front moves in. Latest model data shows CAPE ranging from 1500-3500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -8 degrees C. Dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s with PWS of 1.50-2.00″. The potential does exist for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms across our area for Tuesday and Tuesday Night, but as it often the case during the summer not everyone will get wet or see a storm. A few of the storms could become severe during this period with damaging wind and large hail the main threats. Torrential rainfall and dangerous lightning are also possible. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 80s and 90s with 60s and 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 60s and 70s. Afternoon heat indices in Northern, Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsinwill climb into the 90s to low 100s once again.
Extended Forecast:
Deep low pressure will pass to our northwest on Wednesday. Most of our area should be in the warm sector on Wednesday with a cold front moving east across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night. Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will really pump the heat into our area on Wednesday with 850mb temperatures of +25 to +30 degrees C with 700mb temperatures approaching +16 degrees C! There could be some showers and thunderstorms around Wednesday Morning, mainly in Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota…Afterwards it looks awfully capped, but there could be just enough forcing associated with the approaching cold front to break the cap and allow for some explosive thunderstorm development sometime late Wednesday Afternoon or Night. If thunderstorms develop Wednesday or Wednesday Night they could be severe with high winds, hail, very heavy rains, dangerous lightning and an isolated tornado risk. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 90s for most areas and it’s possible that a few locales could approach 100 degrees! Dewpoints from 68-76 degrees combined with the expected high temperatures on Wednesday will produce dangerous heat indices of 100-110 degrees in parts of our area. Cold front should exit to our east for Thursday with much drier air moving into our area with dewpoints crashing into the 50s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 60s and 70s with highs on Thursday mainly in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday and Thursday Night.
Note: *HEAT ADVISORY* remains in effect until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Koochiching…Itasca…Central and Northern St. Louis Counties Minnesota.
Note: *EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING* remains in effect until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Pine…Carlton…and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…Iron…Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price Counties in Wisconsin.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
“EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING”
Timing: Until 10 PM CDT Wednesday
.Tonight… Warm and muggy. Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 67 to 72. Wind east under 12 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Tuesday… Warm and muggy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 83 to 88 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Tuesday Night… Warm and muggy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 70 to 75. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Wednesday… Hot and muggy. Partly cloudy. High 91 to 96.
.Wednesday Night… Warm and muggy. Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.
.Thursday… Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 77 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:
Grass: Low
Tree: None
Weed: None
Sunrise Tomorrow: 5:33 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 8:56 PM CDT
Note: Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature for Today: 70.2 degrees.
Tim