Issued at 3:20 PM CDT, Monday, August 1st, 2011
*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through 12 PM CDT Tuesday.
Counties included in the watch are…In Minnesota: Koochiching…Itasca…Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…Pine…Carlton…St. Louis…Lake…and Cook. In Wisconsin: Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…Iron…Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price.
Some cities included in the watch are: International Falls MN…Northome MN…Bigfork MN…Grand Rapids MN…Cass Lake MN…Walker MN…Leader MN…Brainerd MN…Aitkin MN…McGregor MN…Hill City MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Hibbing MN…Ely MN…Crane Lake MN…Two Harbors MN…Silver Bay MN…Isabella MN…Tofte MN…Grand Marais MN…Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Cable WI…Ashland WI…Butternut WI…Upson WI…Hurley WI…Mercer WI…Danbury WI…Siren WI…Minong WI…Spooner WI…Hayward WI…Winter WI…Park Falls WI…Phillips WI…Ogema WI.
Impacts: Extremely heavy rainfall is possible across the Northland Tonight. Strong low pressure approaching from the Dakotas combined with deep tropical moisture in place will set the stage for heavy rain producing thunderstorms with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches possible by Tuesday Morning. A corridor of heavier rainfall amounts in the 4-6 inch range are even possible, but where this sets up is still uncertain at this time.
*If you live near a river…Stream or in a low lying area be sure to monitor for possible flash flood warnings and be ready to head to cover in the event flooding occurs. This could be a very dangerous situation where water rises very quickly.
A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
Rainfall report from Saturday, July 30th, 2011.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Brainerd, MN: 0.35″
Ashland, WI: 0.44″
Hayward, WI: 0.32″
4 miles south of Bruno, MN: 0.50″
Bruno, MN: 1.03″
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN: 0.58″
Embarrass, MN: 0.62″
Upson, WI: 0.28″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI: 0.31″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 0.82″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.93″
Webster, WI: 1.44″
Winter, WI: 0.40″
*3 TORNADOES IN MINNESOTA ON JULY 30TH*
Source: National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota and Chanhassen, Minnesota.
*7:12 PM CDT 7/30/11: TORNADO. 1 mile north of Johnson, MN (Traverse County)
*7:18 PM CDT 7/30/11: TORNADO. 1 mile north of Johnson, MN (Traverse County)
*8:28 PM CDT 7/30/11: TORNADO. 6 miles northwest of Dalbo, MN just north of County Road 10 (Mille Lacs County) EF-0 rating.
WEATHER HEADLINES:
-Potentially active night ahead
-Heavy rain/severe threat ends by Tuesday Morning
-Calmer, less humid weather Tuesday Night into Wednesday
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
Low pressure was centered in Northern South Dakota as of 3 PM with a warm front extending E-SE through the Southern half of Minnesota. A complex of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, some hail and flooding rains dropped southeast out of Eastern North Dakota through Western, Central and Southern Minnesota Today, or along and slightly north of that boundary. This complex of storms to our south has prevented deeper instability from surging north into our area This Afternoon although this may not last too much longer as the MCS weakens as it shifts into Southeast Minnesota and Western Wisconsin late This Afternoon. Behind this complex, additional showers and thunderstorms have been developing This Afternoon in portions of Northcentral Minnesota but so far these storms were behaving themselves. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with increasing amounts of humidity with late day dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s with 50s in the Arrowhead. PWS were extremely high and ranged from 1.30-2.20″ per Meso-Analysis. Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A strong disturbance was lifting E-NE across the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery. A copious amount of monsoonal moisture was in place ahead of this system from the Southwest U.S. through the Upper Midwest. 500mb ridge remained in place in the Central and Southern U.S. with widespread 90-105+ degree temperatures This Afternoon from South Dakota and Southwestern Minnesota through the Central and Southern U.S.
Tonight:
Low pressure will move toward Central Minnesota with a warm front remaining nearly stationary from Central Minnesota to Northcentral Wisconsin. A low level jet of 30-40 knots will continue to pump deep tropical moisture up and over the warm front Tonight with 850mb td’s approaching +20 degrees C with PWS of 1.50-2.20″! A developing warm advection pattern should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Extreme instability with CAPE of 8000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -14 degrees C This Afternoon in Southwest Minnesota will advect northeast into our area Tonight, although CAPE will not be as high this far north, but there should still be a sufficient amount of CAPE with values around 1000-2000 j/kg and this combined with favorable wind shear along and north of the warm frontal boundary with 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR…1KM SHEAR around 30 knots with 1KM HELICITY nearing 300 m2/s2 will lead to a risk for a few severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind and some large hail will be the main threats from storms that become severe. Heavy rain and flash flooding is a real possibility as well due to the high amounts of moisture, dangerous lightning will also accompany these storms Tonight. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with south, east or north winds under 20 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night:
Low pressure will exit to our east Tuesday Morning while a cold front drops southeast across our area through early Tuesday Evening. The threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms should come to an end Tuesday Morning. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday with a risk for an Afternoon shower or thunderstorm as that cold front moves through. Dewpoints will remain high for one more day with 60s and 70s common in our area. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with winds becoming north or northwest up to 20 mph. Drier and more stable air returns Tuesday Night with clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northwest under 20 mph.
Extended Forecast:
Dry weather is forecasted for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s. A new cold front approaches the Upper Midwest for Thursday, possibly lingering into Friday…This next boundary could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late this week. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
“FLASH FLOOD WATCH”
Expiration time: 12:00 PM CDT Tuesday.
.Tonight… Humid with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Considerable cloudiness. Low 63 to 68. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
.Tuesday… Humid. Occasional showers and thunderstorms mainly early. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon. Becoming partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60% early and 20% during the Afternoon.
.Tuesday Night… Less humid. Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.
.Thursday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:
Weed: Low
Tree: None
Grass: None
Sunrise Tomorrow: 5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 8:40 PM CDT
Tim