Monthly Archives: May 2012

Another cool night ahead with a frost threat away from Lake Superior. Updated June climate outlooks.

Issued at 4:12 PM CDT, Thursday, May 31st, 2012

  • Tonight:  Mostly clear, light winds, cool temperatures.  Possible frost!
  • Friday:  A mix of sun/clouds, spotty showers West areas? Near normal temps.
  • Saturday:  Near to slightly above avg. temps. Mix of sun/clouds.
*Updated climate outlook for June 2012 issued by the Climate Prediction Center*
-For Duluth, Minnesota:  A 40% chance for above normal temperatures with equal chances for above, below, or average precipitation.






























Low temperature report for May 31st, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN:  34F
International Falls, MN:  29F
Hibbing, MN:  31F
Two Harbors, MN:  30F
Silver Bay, MN:  27F
Grand Marais, MN:  28F
Ely, MN:  30F
Orr, MN:  28F
Crane Lake, MN:  28F
Cook, MN:  30F
Superior, WI:  34F
Northome, MN:  31F
Embarrass, MN:  27F
Kabetogama, MN:  30F
3 E of Orr, MN:  28F
2 S of Tower, MN:  29F
Gurney, WI:  31F
Upson, WI:  31F
Weather Tidbits:
*Low temperature of 34F on May 31st at the Duluth Airport is the coldest minimum temperature since April 29th when the low temperature was 33F.
*May 2012 will go into the books as the 11th consecutive month to finish above average in the temperature department (July ’11-May ’12) and the 4th consecutive month with above average precipitation (February-May ’12)
*29F at International Falls, Minnesota This Morning.  Tied the record low temperature for the 31st of May.  The previous record was set in 1910.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with highs getting back into the 60s which is a few degrees below to around seasonal levels as we close out the end of May.  High pressure ridge of 1018-1020mb remained in control of our weather Today as it sits over the Upper Midwest.  Winds were variable at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
An upper level trough with up to 60 meter per 12 hour height falls covered the Upper Midwest and Central/Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from +2 to +4C in Southern Minnesota to +6 to +8C in Northern Minnesota.
-2km visible satellite image of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from This Afternoon.  Note:  The absence of clouds close to Lake Superior as a light lake breeze developed Today resulting in a stable atmosphere.












Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (May 31st)
Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur with light winds under 10 mph.  Another chilly night ahead as lows drop into the 30s and lower 40s with 20s possible away from Lake Superior.  Areas of frost will develop once again Overnight.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.










-Tonight’s frost/freeze potential.













Friday and Friday Night (June 1st)
Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Friday.  There could be a few Afternoon/Evening showers that develop in Western parts of our area, from International Falls and Walker, south to Brainerd and Aitkin.  It should remain dry in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with southwest or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.  For Friday Night, expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky with lows mainly in the 40s, winds will be out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
-Friday’s high temperature forecast.










-4km Hi-Res NAM from Today.  This is valid for late Friday Afternoon.  Could be a few spotty rain showers late Tomorrow PM in Minnesota, west of the Twin Ports.
















Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (June 2nd-4th)
A west-northwest flow will cover the Upper Midwest during this period as an upper level low lifts slowly N/NE across the Eastern Great Lakes and Eastern Canada.  A small chance for a shower does exist on Saturday with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, lows will be in the 40s and 50s.  Sunday and Monday look generally dry at this time, but a disturbance dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains could lead to a few showers/thunderstorms late this weekend and early next week, however, it remains to be seen just how far north/east the better moisture and instability can make it.  High temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s for Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast (June 5th-11th)
Upper level pattern continues to look fairly amplified/blocky for most of next week, although there are some trends showing up for a possible pattern shift beginning next weekend.  As long as we sit under the upper level ridge we should be dry with any showers/thunderstorms staying over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Showers or thunderstorms may head east into the Upper Midwest sometime during the June 8-11 time frame.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.
-GFS upper level forecast for next Tuesday, June 5th.  Still looks like an amplified configuration with troughs in the Northwest and Northeast U.S. and upper level ridging over the Plains.












5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Patchy frost possible away from Lake Superior.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday…  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.
.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.
.Sunday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Low 50 to 55.
.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.
Normal temperatures for Today
High:  67
Low:  45
Sunrise Friday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:56 PM CDT

Friday’s allergy forecast:  7.3/Medium-High
Friday’s UV Index:  7.0/Medium
Tim

Frost and Flood Headlines.

Issued at 3:15 PM CDT, Thursday, May 31st, 2012

*Frost Advisory*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A frost advisory is in effect from 1am to 7am CDT Friday for the following Counties.

In Northeast Minnesota:

Cook
Lake
Central/Northern St. Louis

In Northwest Wisconsin:

Bayfield
Ashland
Iron
Washburn
Sawyer
Price

Some cities included in the advisory are:  Grand Marais MN…Isabella MN…Silver Bay MN…Finland MN…Two Harbors MN…Cotton MN…Hibbing MN…Ely MN…Crane Lake MN…and Orr MN.

Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Butternut WI…Hurley WI…Minong WI…Spooner WI…Hayward WI…and Park Falls WI.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will result in another chilly night in the Northland.  Low temperatures are forecast to fall to between 30 and 35 degrees.  Areas of frost are expected to develop Overnight.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin.

*At 9am Thursday the stage was 15.1 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.0 feet by Tomorrow Morning.

*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Brainerd.

*At 9:30am Thursday the stage was 14.4 feet.
*Flood stage is 13.0 feet

*At 13.0 feet this will cause flooding of low lying areas.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley.

*At 9:00am Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to rise to near 11.8 feet Tomorrow then begin falling.

*At 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.

Note:  The flood warning for the St. Louis River near Scanlon and for Pine and Southern Carlton Counties have been allowed to expire.  No additional flooding is expected in these areas.

-NWS warning and advisory map.

blue=frost advisory
green=flood warning

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The drought continues to improve in the Northland

Issued at 11:03 AM CDT, Thursday, May 31st, 2012

-Minnesota Drought Monitor as of May 29, 2012 per Climate Prediction Center.

The very wet weather pattern as of late has eased the drought that had been in place over much of Minnesota.

*46.54% of Minnesota is abnormally dry which is down from 81.48% at this time last week and down from 99.21% on February 28th.

*14.08% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought which is down from 32.59% at this time last week and down from 96.12% on February 28th.

*Severe Drought has been eliminated in Minnesota.  *24.10% of the state was in Severe Drought back on February 28th.

-Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index shows that the Northwest 1/2 of Minnesota needs 3-6″ of additional precipitation to get back to average.  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin is doing much better.

-Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on May 17, 2012 by the Climate Prediction Center.  This is valid thru August 31, 2012.  Looks promising for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Tim

Frost possible late Tonight. 60s return on Thursday.

Issued at 4:04 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

  • Tonight:  Cool with some clouds.  Patchy frost?
  • Thursday:  A mix of sun/clouds.  Milder temperatures
  • Friday:  A mix of sun/clouds.  Near normal temperatures
-Another night of a frost/freeze threat in the Northland.  No headlines for frost have been issued by the National Weather Service as of late This Afternoon, but this could change during the Evening hours.












Weather Tidbits:
-It’s been an active stretch in regards to the number of severe weather reports across the U.S.  47 tornado reports and 1,669 severe weather reports from May 20-29.  (SPC)
5/20:  86/0 tornadoes
5/21:  111/3 tornadoes
5/22:  156/0 tornadoes
5/23:  106/1 tornado
5/24:  69/2 tornadoes
5/25:  78/32 tornadoes
5/26:  61/0 tornadoes
5/27:  245/5 tornadoes
5/28:  233/1 tornado
5/29:  524/3 tornadoes
Weather History:
On this date in 1990:  A record low temperature of 29F occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A ridge of high pressure averaging 1016-1018mb stretched from the Northern Plains to Lake Superior.  A very cool day with skies turning mostly sunny in Northern Minnesota while more clouds than sun was found in Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 50s with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a well defined disturbance tracking SE through the Dakotas per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from 0C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +4C in Western, Central and Southern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (May 30th)
High pressure will be in control of our weather resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies.  The disturbance across the Northern Plains will stay well to our west/south Tonight, rain associated with that feature will stay in Southern parts of Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with light winds.  Patchy frost is possible away from Lake Superior Overnight.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.










Thursday and Thursday (May 31st)
The final day of May will be fairly pleasant in our area with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Temperatures should warm a bit with highs mainly in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the west, southwest or north at 5 to 15 mph.
-Thursday’s high temperature forecast.











Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (June 1st-3rd)
A northwest flow will occur for Friday and Saturday.  Can’t rule out a few showers, especially on Saturday. But, for the most part this period looks dry.  High temperatures from Friday-Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s to lower 50s.
Long Range Forecast (June 4th-10th)
Upper level pattern is forecast to become rather amplified during this period.  Deep upper troughs are forecast to cover the Western U.S. and Northeast U.S. with an upper level ridge across the Plains.  This will be a slow moving type of pattern, so once it develops it probably will not change for several days.  There is a small chance for showers/thunderstorms next Monday (4th) otherwise it looks generally dry through the 10th.  Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.
-HPC’s 500mb forecast for next Wednesday, June 6th, 2012.  A highly amplified pattern for the U.S. Troughs over the Northeast U.S. and Western U.S. and a nice ridge for the Plains.  Should the pattern develop like what is shown here, then a period of dry weather should occur across Minnesota for most of next week.












5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable under 10 mph.
.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.  Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west around 10 mph.
.Friday…  Variable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70.
.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.
.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.
.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.
.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Today
High:  66
Low:  44
Sunrise Thursday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:55 PM CDT
Tim

*Updated Flood Information*

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Louis River at Scanlon affecting Carlton County.

*At 1:30 PM CDT Today the stage was10.7 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to rise to near 10.9 feet during the rest of the Afternoon.  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday Evening.

*At 11.0 feet businesses in Scanlon adjacent to the river are affected.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin.

*At 1:00 PM CDT Today the stage was 15.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

*The river will remain near 15.0 feet This Afternoon.  Additional rises are possible thereafter.

*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley.

*At 9:00 AM CDT Today the stage was 11.5 feet
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to rise to near 12.2 feet by Saturday Morning then begin falling.

*At 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Brainerd.

*At 1:30 PM CDT Today the stage was 14.5 feet.
*Flood stage is 13.0 feet.

*At 16.0 feet this may cause flooding of at least one private home.
*River levels are expected to remain steady then slowly fall.

*Flood Warning* remains in effect for Pine County in Eastcentral Minnesota and for Southern Carlton County in Northeast Minnesota until 11:00 AM CDT Thursday.

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