A wet and stormy weekend is possible across the Northland. Severe weather and heavy rain is possible at times.

-15z SREF model from 5.25.12   Southcentral Minnesota could see some severe thunderstorms Saturday-Saturday Evening.  Supercells are possible, and if storms can become surface based~then there may also be a threat for isolated tornadoes.

-Saturday’s severe weather forecast from the SPC.  Slight Risk covers southern parts of the Duluth area, generally from Brainerd and Aitkin, to Hinckley and Pine City, east toward Siren, Minong, Hayward and Phillips.  If severe thunderstorms develop this far north, they should remain elevated with large hail being the main hazard.

-Saturday’s severe thunderstorm probability forecast per SPC.

4.72″/2.26″ above normal

8.18″/5.58″ above normal

6.67″/4.42″ above normal

1.64″/0.48″ below normal

2.92″/0.78″ above normal

0.72″/1.28″ below normal

Note:  2.95″ of rain fell at the Duluth Airport from May 22-24, 2012.

-On this date in 2010:  A record high temperature of 86 degrees.

-On this date in 1992 and 1988:  A record low temperature of 30 degrees.

Several areas of high pressure covered the Upper Midwest, north into Central Canada.  This high brought with it dry weather along with a partly to mostly sunny sky.  Highs were in the 50s in far Northern Minnesota with 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday’s storm has moved into Southern Hudson Bay Today with powerful 120-180 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covering Eastern Canada per RUC model analysis.  An upper level low was located just west of the Rockies with a southwest flow aloft developing ahead of this system over the Upper Midwest.  Quite the range in 850mb temperatures late This Afternoon…0 to -6C from far Northwest Minnesota to Manitoba and Ontario to +2 to +6C in Northern Minnesota to +8 to +10C in the South half of Minnesota.

High pressure will be centered to our northwest while a warm front lifts north into Iowa.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with some rain showers possible, mainly in Southern areas from the Brainerd Lakes east to Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with some spots in far Northern Minnesota possibly dropping into the 30s.  Winds will shift to the north/east during the night at 10 to 15 mph.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

A warm front will move toward Southern Minnesota during this period with high pressure sitting to our north.  An easterly wind will become quite gusty on Saturday with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph, although higher gusts should develop near Lake Superior.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

A warm, moist and unstable airmass will be lifting north into the Upper Midwest during this period with a big increase in elevated CAPE expected to occur by Saturday Evening-Overnight.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected throughout our area for Saturday and Saturday Night.  As greater instability moves in Saturday Night, there will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms with large hail being the biggest risk.  Locations along and south of Highway 2 could be in line for a few strong/severe thunderstorms for Saturday Night based on latest model data.  Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as moisture streams north out of the Central Plains.

-Saturday’s high temperature forecast.

-Rainfall forecast valid thru 7pm Saturday.  (HPC)

Sunday:  A warm front will move into Southern/Central Minnesota with a cold front moving east out of the Northern Plains.  A very warm and muggy airmass will be found along and south of the warm front and ahead of the cold front on Sunday.  Highs will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 70s and 80s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with 60s and 70s in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  

The atmosphere is expected to become quite unstable on Sunday with CAPE ranging from 1500-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -4 to -8C.  Should also be favorable amounts of wind shear along with decent jet stream winds in place over the Upper Midwest late this weekend.  Showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, and a few of these storms could become severe with all modes of severe weather certainly possible, including large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.  Heavy rainfall could also develop with the abundant moisture in place.

-The threat for supercells (isolated tornadoes) may spread into Central and possibly Northern Minnesota on Sunday, depending on the location of the warm front late this weekend.  This is the 15z SREF model from Today and is valid for early Sunday Evening.

-Rainfall forecast for 7pm Saturday thru 7pm Sunday per HPC.

-Sunday’s severe weather forecast per SPC.  The majority of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin continue to be in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

Memorial Day:  Low pressure and a cold front will exiting to our east, but there will be a chance for some lingering rain showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

Tuesday:  Looks dry at this time with a cooler airmass moving into the region.  Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Looking dry for the middle/end of next week.  The next system that may affect our area could do so sometime during the June 3-5 time frame.  Temperatures will be near to below average through this period.

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph…Becoming east at 5 to 15 mph Overnight.

.Saturday…  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Rain showers possible at times.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 47 to 52.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Memorial Day…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 63 to 68.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday…  Variable cloudiness.  High 55 to 60.

High:  65

Low:  43

Tim