Issued at 12:10 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 4th, 2012
…Severe thunderstorms possible through Tonight in portions of the Northland…
At 11 AM CDT: Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Eastern North Dakota. A warm front attached to this low was lifting north out of Central Minnesota with a cold front entering the Eastern Dakotas.
A very hot and humid airmass will be found away from Lake Superior This Afternoon with temperatures reaching the 90s, some locations in Central and Southern Minnesota could even climb into the low 100s. Dewpoints will remain very tropical like (68-77 degrees) It will be much cooler closer to Lake Superior as the marine layer has strengthened Today, temperatures closer to the Lake will be in the 60s and 70s with dewpoints mostly in the 60s.
Note: If you are venturing to Park Point This Afternoon/Evening please be aware that there is a HIGH risk of Rip Currents, you may wanna stay out of the water Today.
The atmosphere is already very unstable early This Afternoon in all but far Northeastern Minnesota. Meso-Analysis as of 11 AM showed CAPE of 1500-5000 j/kg. Lifted Indices ranging from -3 to -12C. Lapse Rates were very steep and ranged from 7.0-7.5 c/km.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing as of Noon in parts of Northwest and far Northern Minnesota. This activity was developing north of the warm front. A few of the storms have been severe during the Morning hours.
For the rest of the Afternoon and into Tonight:
Low pressure with it’s warm front and cold front will be moving through the Northland. As this system tracks east and comes in contact with the very unstable, moist, and warm environment, the potential for more showers and thunderstorms does exist.
A few of the storms may become severe due to the favorable amounts of instability in place…There will also be enough wind shear and mid level support to cause some severe weather.
Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. There’s also a chance for heavy rainfall due to the tremendous amounts of moisture in the atmosphere.
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch* Number 460
Source: Storm Prediction Center
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Northeast Minnesota…Extreme Northwest Wisconsin…and Lake Superior. The watch is valid until 8:00 PM CDT Tonight.
Hazards:
Hail to 2″ in diameter
Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph
Dangerous lightning
Counties in the Duluth area that are included in this watch are:
Koochiching, MN
Itasca, MN
Cass, MN
Crow Wing, MN
Aitkin, MN
Pine, MN
Carlton, MN
St. Louis, MN
Lake, MN
Douglas, WI
Bayfield, WI
Ashland, WI
Burnett, WI
Washburn, WI
Sawyer, WI
Some Cities included in the watch are:
International Falls, MN…Grand Rapids, MN…Walker, MN…Brainerd, MN…Aitkin, MN…Pine City, MN…Hinckley, MN…Moose Lake, MN…Duluth, MN…Hibbing, MN…Ely, MN…Two Harbors, MN…Silver Bay, MN…Isabella, MN…Superior, WI…Bayfield, WI…Ashland, WI…Grantsburg, WI…Spooner, WI…and Hayward, WI.
Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area, persons in these areas should be on the lookout for rapidly changing weather conditions. Make sure you have a way to be notified if warnings/watches are issued.
Tim