Issued at 4:09 PM CDT, Thursday, July 5th, 2012
Tonight: Some clouds late, mild. Showers possible South areas after Midnight.
Friday: Occasional showers/t-storms. Locally heavy rain?
Saturday: Dry with mild temperatures.
*Local Storm Report for July 4th, 2012*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
-7:48 PM CDT: 1.00″ HAIL. Kimberly, MN (Aitkin County)
-2:12 PM CDT: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Burntside Lake (St. Louis County) Numerous trees down along Passi Road.
-8:15 PM CDT: 1.50″ HAIL. Wealthwood, MN (Aitkin County) Also numerous reports of 2 foot diameter trees down on North side of Lake Mille Lacs.
-9:17 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. Willow River, MN (Pine County)
-10:12 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. 2 N of Pillager, MN (Cass County) Pea to 1/2″ size hail.
-10:12 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. 1 N of Pillager, MN (Cass County)
-10:12 PM CDT: 1.00″ HAIL. 2 N of Pillager, MN (Cass County)
-10:38 PM CDT: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 58 MPH. 2 NE of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) Also pea size hail.
-10:12 PM CDT: 1.00″ HAIL. 13 S of Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)
*Storm reports from July 4th, 2012 per SPC. Blue dots=wind damage. Green dots=large hail.
*Flood Warning*
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 4 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.2 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river level will remain nearly steady, but could rise a bit after Friday.
*At 17.0 feet pumping begins at the Wastewater Treatment Plant.
*Flood Warning*
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippir River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
*At 4 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.6 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to around 11.5 feet by Tomorrow Morning.
*At 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.
-NWS watch/warning map. Green=Flood warning
Weather Tidbits:
*Today marks the 9th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota. This ties with a similar 9 day streak from July 28-August 5, 2011.
*2,302 record high temperatures in the lower 48 last week. (Paul Douglas)
*Since January 1st, 2012: Over 41,000 hot temperatures records in the U.S. compared to fewer than 6,000 cold temperature records. (NOAA)
*56% of the U.S. is in drought, this is the most in the 12 year history of the weekly Drought Monitor. (TWC)
*1 of the warmest 12 month periods at Duluth, Minnesota. From July, 2011 through June, 2012 the average temperature was 44.8F. Only 1877-88 (or 134 years ago) was warmer with an average temperature ending in August of 1878 of 46.0F. (Duluth News Tribune)
-Parts of Northwest Minnesota is in moderate drought and 41% of Minnesota is abnormally dry, which is up from 34% one week ago.
-Pretty staggering when you look at this map and see that Northwest Minnesota needs 9-12″ of precipitation to end the LONG TERM DROUGHT.
High temperature report for July 4th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Brainerd, MN: 95F
Hayward, WI: 95F
Pine River, MN: 93F
Aitkin, MN: 93F
Siren, WI: 95F
Phillips, WI: 95F
Butternut, WI: 94F
Park Falls, WI: 93F
Upson, WI: 91F
Gordon, WI: 96F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 92F
Minneapolis, MN: 100F
Redwood Falls, MN: 100F
Red Wing, MN: 100F
Madison, MN: 100F
Flying Cloud, MN: 100F
St. Paul, MN: 100F
*Record heat in Minnesota on July 4th, 2012*
Twin Cities: 101F. Previous record 100F in 1949.
St. Cloud: 97F. Previous record 96F in 1988.
Rainfall report for July 4th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Brainerd, MN: 0.65″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.48″
4 S of Bruno, MN: 2.45″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 0.57″
12 N of Isle, MN: 1.27″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 0.41″
Northome, MN: 1.82″
Cook, MN: 0.61″
Embarrass, MN: 0.75″
Kabetogama, MN: 1.85″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.70″
2 S of Tower, MN: 0.58″
Finland, MN: 0.32″
-Rainfall map for July 4th, 2012. More rounds of heavy rain north and southwest of Duluth on Wednesday.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Another warm one, but the dewpoints have dropped off big time compared to recent days. High temperatures were in the 80s to lower 90s with Afternoon dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s! The real muggy air has pushed into Southern Minnesota where late Afternoon dewpoints were in the tropical 70s. Skies Today were partly cloudy to sunny with winds out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A massive upper level ridge stretched from the Upper Midwest through the Central-Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and most of the Great Lakes per RAP model analysis. Upper level troughs were over the Northeast U.S. and Western U.S., and a feed or monsoon moisture continued to push N/NE through the Rockies and Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +16 to +18C in Northern Minnesota to +20 to +22C in the remainder of Minnesota.
-Today’s 500mb map
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 5th)
Mostly clear skies are expected This Evening, but clouds will become a little more of a fixture during the night as low pressure organizes in the Western High Plains while a stationary front pushes north as a warm front later in the night. Moisture will start to lift back north out of Southern Minnesota Overnight, this combined with a warm advection pattern could lead to some rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, mainly around the Brainerd Lakes and I35 corridor, east into far Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Friday and Friday Night (July 6th)
An area of low pressure will move east across Southern Minnesota during this period with a frontal boundary turning nearly stationary in Southcentral Minnesota into Central Wisconsin on Friday, this boundary will sag SE as a cold front Friday Night. A very strong baroclinic zone will develop in the Upper Midwest on Friday with 850mb temperatures ranging from around +10C in Northern Minnesota to as warm as +28C in Southern Minnesota. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s around our area, maybe some 80s around Hayward and Pine City, while parts of Southern Minnesota bake in the 90s and low 100s. A strong surge of deep tropical moisture will also advect into our area on Friday with PWS climbing to 1.50-2.00″, and 850mb dewpoints of +12 to +18C. The highest values should set-up along and south of Highway 2 the way it looks now.
It does appear that there will be occasional showers and thunderstorms across the Northland this period, the heaviest amounts of rain appear to be targeting Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin…But, there may be a secondary precip max somewhere in Northcentral Minnesota, possibly including the Iron Range.
The pattern that is suppose to develop on Friday has some similarities to June 19-20 and the historic flood that hit Duluth. Although there are also some differences, one being a weaker low level jet this go around. Also, the amount of instability doesn’t appear to be as strong this far north compared to the mid-June event. The placement of the front looks to be farther south on Friday compared to the June event as well.
Bottom line is there likely will be pockets of heavy rain, and that could lead to some localized flooding, but this in no way should be a repeat of what parts of the Northland saw on June 19-20.
The biggest concern would be if the heavier rain targets the Mississippi and St. Louis River basins, or Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, and Southern St. Louis Counties. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage at Aitkin, Brainerd, and Fort Ripley, so any additional rain that we do get would keep the river levels in flood stage, and may even raise the water levels somewhat in coming days. The St. Louis River at Scanlon has fallen below flood stage by some 5 feet, so it would take quite a bit of rain to cause river levels to reach flood stage on the St. Louis River.
The severe weather threat looks pretty minimal up in our area with CAPE generally remaining <1000 j.kg south of Highway 2 with Lifted Indices around 0 to -2C. Scattered thunderstorms will likely occur in parts of our area, but the chance for severe weather appears to be greater the farther south you go.
Mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with lows Friday Night in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.
-Here’s the surface map for 7 PM Friday per HPC. Stationary front in Southern Minnesota could be a focal area for showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain from Central Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin.
-Friday’s high temperature forecast
-Rainfall forecast valid through 7 PM Friday per HPC
-Rainfall forecast for Friday Night, after 7 PM. (HPC)
Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (July 7th-9th)
Looks mainly dry on Saturday and Monday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible on Sunday as a disturbance drops south out of Ontario. Northwest flow aloft should dominate through this period. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast (July 10th-15th)
Temperatures are forecast to be at or above normal levels through this period. No real big cool snaps are in sight. May also see a few showers or thunderstorms at times.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Clear during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy late. Low 60 to 65. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. Occasional showers or thunderstorms. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
.Friday Night… Occasional showers. Mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 54
Sunrise Friday: 5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:04 PM CDT
Tim
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