Issued at 3:55 PM CDT, Monday, July 9th, 2012
Tonight: Patchy clouds. Isolated showers north areas. Patchy fog late.
Tuesday: Warm. A mix of sun/clouds. Spotty showers, maybe a thunderstorm.
Wednesday: Warm. A mix of sun/clouds. Spotty showers or thunderstorms.
Weather Tidbits:
*8/9 days so far this month has had a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota. This month’s average temperature is a balmy 72.1F which is 7.3 degrees above normal. A dry start to July, however with 0.81″ of rain which is 0.35″ below normal.
*Since the historic flood in the Twin Ports back on June 19-20, we’ve settled into a drier weather pattern, which isn’t really a bad thing. Rainfall total from 6/21-7/8: 1.33″. Normal is 2.70″. During that period we were 1.37″ below normal.
*2nd longest streak at or above 100F at St. Louis, Missouri. 10 consecutive days topping the century mark, which ended on July 7th, 2012. 13 days in a row at or above 100 degrees continues to be the record which was set August 24th, 1936. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)
*2,210 warm temperature records in the U.S. last week. (HAMweather)
*Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of July 9 sits at a toasty 69.4 degrees.
*On this date in 1997: A record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning continues for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 4 PM Monday the stage was 16.6 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river will fall to a stage of around 15.0 feet by Friday.
*At 17.0 feet pumping begins at the Wastewater Treatment Plant.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning continues for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
*At 3 PM Monday the stage was 11.1 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Saturday Afternoon.
*At 11.0 feet this will cause minor flooding of rural areas near Fort Ripley.
-NWS Watch/Warning map. Green=Flood Warning
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm day, but with comfortable humidity levels. We saw partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, dewpoints were mainly in the 50s with some spots dropping into the 40s during the Afternoon hours. Spotty showers affected Cook County in far Northeast Minnesota. Winds Today were from the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis. A fairly strong disturbance was dropping SE through Eastern Ontario and Lake Superior per water vapor satellite imagery, well to our west a large upper level ridge extended from the Central-Western High Plains, through the Northern Plains, Rockies, and most of the Western U.S. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +12 to +16C in Minnesota.
-500mb map for Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight through Tuesday Night (July 9th-10th)
High pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest along with a NW mid/upper level flow. Spotty showers are possible in extreme Northern Minnesota Tonight, but the majority of the area will be dry. Spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday and Tuesday Evening, but once again I’m thinking that the bulk of our area will stay rain-free. Partly to at times mostly cloudy skies are expected this period. Could be some patchy fog late Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with some 40s possible in the traditional cool spots Tonight. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s. Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
-Tuesday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (July 11th-13th)
High pressure will move off to our east for mid-late week while a cold front moves slowly toward the east out of the Northern Plains. Moisture will increase a bit during this period with dewpoints getting into the 58-65 degree range. Instability will also come up with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg during the Afternoon/Evening hours. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms at times across the Northland from Wednesday-Friday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s, but a few spots may flirt with 90 degrees, especially on Wednesday. Low temperatures for Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 60s with a few 50s also possible.
Long Range Forecast (July 14th-19th)
The potential does exist for a few showers and thunderstorms between July 14th-18th, doesn’t look like a widespread event at this time, but things could change. Temperatures are forecast to stay at or above normal through this period.
-500mb map for Thursday, July 12th per HPC. Weak winds aloft over Minnesota, main jet stream in Canada with an upper level ridge across the Rockies/Southwest U.S.
-500mb map for Monday, July 16th per HPC. Upper level high gets squashed a bit in the Southwest U.S. while a ridge builds across the Southeast U.S. Bermuda type high developing.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late. Low 55 to 60. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 79 to 84. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind west around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Thursday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.
.Thursday Night… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 55
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:25 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 9:02 PM CDT
Tuesday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Tim