Issued at 3:53 PM CDT Friday, July 13th, 2012
Tonight: Scattered showers & t-storms. Locally heavy rain and a severe storm possible This Evening.
Saturday: Warm temps, somewhat muggy. Isolated showers or t-storms.
Sunday: Warm, moderately humid…Slight shower/t-storm chance North areas.
-Visible satellite loop from This Afternoon. A nice swirl to the clouds in Minnesota Today as an upper level system moves through the Upper Midwest.
Weather Tidbits:
*The low temperature at Death Valley, California was 107 degrees on July 12th. This is the 2nd warmest minimum temperature on record and follows a daytime high temperature on Wednesday of 128 degrees. (Capitalweather)
*Another day above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota Today. This makes it the 12th time this month and the 22nd time this year at or above 80 degrees. Note: 2010 produced 33 days at or above 80F, and 2011 produced 34 days at or above 80F.
*3rd 90 degree day of 2012 at the Duluth Harbor Today. In fact we had back to back 90 degree high temperatures, July 12-13.
Local Storm Report for July 13th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
-1:00 PM CDT: HEAVY RAIN. 1.60″ 6 SW of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)
-2:35 PM CDT: HEAVY RAIN. 1.41″ Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County) 1 hour rainfall total, ending at 2:35 PM.
-2:58 PM CDT: HEAVY RAIN. 1.63″ International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 1 hour rainfall total ending at 11:55 AM Today.
*Doppler radar image showing a well defined gust front/outflow boundary This Afternoon W-NW of Duluth and Superior. Very cool! Also note the lack of storms ahead of this boundary, all the storms developed near or behind the OFB where the air was cooler. Interesting!
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A weak boundary was moving into Eastern Minnesota late This Afternoon with an area of low pressure averaging 1012mb centered along the Ontario-Minnesota border. Plenty of warm, moist, and unstable air across our area Today, and lift provided by the surface boundary along with an upper level low helped to spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms Today. Weak winds aloft combined with very weak wind shear have kept these storms from becoming too organized, the storms Today have been outflow dominant, meaning they develop, mature, then spit out an outflow boundary/gust front with additional storms developing right along or just behind those OFB’S. The biggest threats out of the storms Today have been from heavy rain and lightning, along with brief gusty winds. High temperatures were in the 70s and 80s Today with a 90 degree temperature for the 3rd time this year at the Duluth Harbor. Dewpoints were mainly in the 60s to around 70 degrees Today with winds from the south, southwest, or north-northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
-Doppler radar rainfall estimates for Today. Heaviest totals have been west of the Twin Ports. Also note the scattered nature to where the heavier rains have fallen Today. A very typical summer time setup.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
An upper level low/trough is moving through Minnesota Today per water vapor satellite imagery while a large 500mb ridge covered the Rockies and Plains with an upper trough in the Pacific Northwest. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +14 to +20C in Minnesota.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 13th)
The combination of a weak frontal boundary and an upper level low/trough over our area will go on to produce more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability will be greatest during the Evening hours and that’s when a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms could develop, overall though it appears that the storms will remain fairly weak, with heavy rain and occasional lightning being the bigger threats in our area. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with southwest or north-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. Should be a fair amount of cloud cover through the night, and there might be some patchy fog late.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Saturday and Saturday Night (July 14th)
Upper level system will exit to our south-east during this period. Lingering moisture and instability behind this feature might be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms into early Saturday Evening, however, coverage of any such activity should be more spotty compared to Today. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs mainly in the 80s. Skies should become clear to partly cloudy Tomorrow Night with lows in the 50s and 60s. North or northwest winds are forecast at 5 to around 20 mph.
-Saturday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (July 15th-17th)
A warm front will be lifting north, and should reach Northern parts of Minnesota from Sunday Night through Monday Evening…This boundary will then settle south as a cold front from late Monday Night into Tuesday. Looks like a very capped airmass advecting NE out of the Northern Plains early next week. 700mb temperatures nearing +14C with 850mb temperatures of +22 to +28C. Should also be quite a bit of moisture and instability across our area, but the warm air aloft should prevent storms from forming in most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The possible exception to this might be along the Minnesota-Ontario border, including the Arrowhead of Minnesota where storm clusters may develop on the edge of the cap from Sunday Night into Monday Evening. By late Monday Night into Tuesday, there will be a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be in the 80s and 90s, in fact Monday has the potential to be a very hot day, especially in Southern parts of the area where 100 degree temperatures are not out of the question. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s, with mainly 60s expected for Monday Night.
Long Range Forecast (July 18th-23rd)
The computer models have been bouncing around a bit during the long range portion of the forecast. The best guess at the moment is that cooler/drier/more stable air moves into the Northland for Wednesday and Thursday (18th-19th) and then we could see the heat and humidity return to the Upper Midwest along with possible showers or thunderstorms from July 20th-23rd, but stay tuned as things may change. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the Evening. Considerable cloudiness. Low 60 to 65. Wind becoming north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
.Saturday… Warm and moderately humid. Partly to mostly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 83 to 88. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Warm. Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88 but it may turn cooler closer to Lake Superior.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 61 to 66.
.Monday… Very warm and humid. Breezy. Partly cloudy. High 89 to 94. Southwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 63 to 68. Chance of rain 20%.
.Tuesday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Saturday: 5:29 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 9:00 PM CDT
Saturday’s UV Index: 9.0/Medium-High
Tim
Nikon Coolpix L810 16.1MP Digital Camera with 26x Optical Zoom –