Issued at 4:48 PM CDT, Thursday, August 2nd, 2012
-Here’s the tornado threat for August per The Weather Channel. Areas shaded in red have the greatest potential to see a tornado this month, but we all know how quiet the tornado season has been so far this summer, but you still cannot let your guard down.
-Wednesday marked the 7th time so far this year with a high temperature of at least 90F at the Duluth Harbor. The Duluth Airport has had 3 days at or above 90F.
-35 days so far in 2012 with a high temperature of at least 80F at the Duluth Airport.
-The water temperature in the Duluth-Superior Harbor sits at 72 degrees Today.
-38 days in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F in the Twin Cities. Friday’s high in the 80s will tie the 39 day consecutive streak that ended on August 10th, 1916. A new record could be broken on Saturday, if the high temperature gets to 80 or above. (NWS Chanhassen, MN)
-1,295 days with a high temperature of zero degrees or warmer in the Twin Cities. This is the number 1 ranking. Number 2 is 1,142 days which ended on January 28th, 2004. (NWS Chanhassen, MN)
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Sky Harbor, MN: 90F
Brainerd, MN: 90F
Hinckley, MN: 90F
Superior, WI: 90F
Siren, WI: 90F
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.09″
Brainerd, MN: 0.13″
Hayward, WI: 0.09″
Bruno, MN: 0.12″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 0.20″
Butternut, WI: 0.12″
Upson, WI: 0.32″
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A weak cold front was sitting along the Minnesota-Ontario border late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1014mb covering Central Canada. Weak instability near the cold front to our north has produced spotty showers and perhaps a clap or two of thunder Today in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and another brief shower passed through the Southern parts of Ashland and Iron County, Wisconsin around 4 PM Today. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s, dew points were lower compared to 24 hours ago with late day dp’s generally in the mid to upper 50s. Winds Today were out of the northwest or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Temperatures around the area as of 5 PM Today.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a near zonal flow (west-east) across the Northern tier of the U.S. 2 systems of interest Today, one was moving east into Quebec Canada and the other one was digging S-SE into the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies, this latter system has 12 hour height falls up to 60 meters per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +12 to +16C across the Northern half of Minnesota to +18C in Southern Minnesota.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (August 2nd)
A weak cold front will drop west-south through most of our area during the night with an area of high pressure sitting to our north. Isolated showers or thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota will end This Evening. Looks generally dry for the rest of the night, but a few showers may be moving into Northcentral areas of Minnesota toward dawn. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds turning to the east at 5 to 15 mph. Note: Patchy low clouds and or fog may develop later Tonight.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.
Friday and Friday Night (August 3rd)
High pressure will be centered to our northeast while low pressure organizes in the Northern Plains. A warm front and cold front attached to this western system will be moving into the Upper Midwest. Looks like will have dew points getting into the 60-65 degree range in most of the Northland during this period with some instability developing as well with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -2 to -5C. Should see the low level jet increase Friday Night to between 30-40 knots. Good upper level support will be available with an upper jet >100 knots to our N/NE and another jet segment approaching 80 knots to our W/SW. Mid level wind max nearing 60 knots will eject east from the Northern Plains by Friday Night.
Those ingredients mentioned above plus the lift associated with the surface fronts and low pressure should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms around our area for Friday and Friday Night. A few of those storms could become severe, especially from International Falls and Hibbing, south to McGregor, and west to the Brainerd Lakes area. Hail and strong winds appear to be the main hazards at this time.
High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the east or south at 10 to 20 mph.
-Friday’s severe weather outlook per SPC. 15% chance for all of Northern, Central, and Western Minnesota. 5% chance in Northwest Wisconsin, into most of Northeastern Minnesota.
-18z 8.2.12 4km High-Res NAM rainfall forecast for the Friday-Saturday system. Computer models are hinting at the heaviest rain setting up in Northwest Minnesota into Ontario Canada. Rainfall amounts in these of 1-3″ are certainly possible, good news since Northwest MN is in severe drought.
-High temperature forecast for Friday.
Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (August 4th-6th)
Low pressure will pass north/northeast of our area for Saturday and Sunday while a strong upper level trough moves across the Northland on Saturday. A cold front tied to the surface low should be exiting Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before Noon Saturday the way it looks now. Severe weather potential looks like it will be east of our area on Saturday, but lingering showers and a few thunderstorms are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday, although a cold front will be moving through our area next Monday so an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out.
High temperatures will be in the 60s in far Northern Minnesota with 70s and lower 80s elsewhere on Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 70s. Monday’s highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures for Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s.
Long Range Forecast (August 7th-12th)
Mainly dry conditions are forecast for August 7-8. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms around the area from the 9th-12th. Temperatures are forecast to be around seasonal averages during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Areas of low clouds or fog possible late. Low 58 to 63. Wind northwest around 10 mph, becoming east at 10 to 20 mph toward Midnight.
.Friday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Breezy. High 71 to 76. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday Night… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible, especially after Midnight. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Saturday… Variable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 56
Sunrise Friday: 5:52 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:37 PM CDT
Friday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Friday’s Allergy Forecast: 5.9/Medium
Tim