Issued at 7:26 PM CDT, Friday, August 3rd, 2012
-GR3 radar as of 8:55 PM This Evening. A nasty line of storms with numerous severe thunderstorms warnings heading east through Northern, Central, and Southwest Minnesota.
-Damaging wind potential for the rest of Tonight. Greatest chance west-southwest of Duluth. (SPC)
-Large hail potential for the rest of Tonight (SPC)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Southeast South Dakota with a 1004mb in Southeast North Dakota and a 1006mb low in Southern Manitoba as of 7 PM. A cold front was connected to the 3 lows and this boundary was over the Eastern Dakotas early This Evening. Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy in our area Today with highs in the 70s and 80s. Winds were out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A strong summer storm with an upper trough continued to dig SE into the Northern Plains This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. A 90 knot upper leve jet and a mid level jet approaching 60 knots was found on the S-SE side of the upper trough per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +20 to +24C in Southern Minnesota to +16 to +18C across the rest of the state.
-500mb map for 7 PM This Evening
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (August 3rd)
Showers and thunderstorms will march west to east across the Northland for the rest of Tonight with generally mostly cloudy skies. A few of the storms may turn severe in Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota, especially before Midnight. The severe threat is much lower for the Arrowhead, North Shore areas in Northeast Minnesota as well as in most of Northwest Wisconsin. Strong winds is the main threat out of these storms Tonight with a lesser threat from hail. Brief heavy rainfall is also possible. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
-Rainfall forecast valid through 7 PM Saturday. (HPC)
Saturday and Saturday Night (August 4th)
Low pressure will pass N-NE of our area with a cold front exiting Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by early Afternoon. A potent upper level trough will sweep through the region behind the cold front Saturday Afternoon-Evening. Scattered showers are possible in the Northland during this period with a few thunderstorms as well, mainly in Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin, but it still looks like the main severe weather potential for Saturday will be east of our area. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to lower 80s with 60s in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the southwest, west, or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
-Saturday’s high temperature forecast
-Saturday’s severe weather forecast per SPC. 5% chances for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (August 5th-7th)
This period looks mainly dry at this time, although we will have a cold front pass southeast and through our area Monday Afternoon/Evening which could touch off a stray shower or storm. High temps will be in the 70s on Sunday with 70s and 80s for Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Sunday Night with 50s to lower 60s for Monday Night.
Long Range Forecast (August 8th-13th)
Dry conditions are expected for next Wednesday-Thursday (8th-9th) May see a few showers or thunderstorms return to the area for the 10th-13th. Temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal averages through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible with occasional showers or thunderstorms developing after 11 PM. Low 60 to 65. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Saturday… Scattered showers during the Morning. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible late in the Afternoon. High 75 to 80. Wind west at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Saturday Night… Showers possible during the Evening. Variable cloudiness. Low 50 to 55. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 76
Low: 56
Sunrise Saturday: 5:53 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:36 PM CDT
Saturday’s UV Index: 8.0/Meduim-High
Tim
Nikon D5100 16.2MP Digital SLR Camera with AF-S DX Nikkor 18-55mm f/3.