/Issued 2:33 PM CST, Friday, November 30th, 2012/
-The Climate Prediction Center released it’s updated December 2012 outlook Today. Gone is the potential for below average temps in the Dakotas and Minnesota. This new outlook is kind of similar to the LRC’s December forecast. I think were in for a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures here in Minnesota. The coldest air will proabably occur during the middle of the month and into Christmas week.
-Updated precipitation outlook for December 2012 per Climate Prediction Center.
*November 2012 will finish with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota which will be the 5th month in a row to do so. (July-November)
*November 2012 will end up with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. Will this be the start of a new streak of months that have above average temps? Remember last time we put together 15 consecutive months where the average monthly temperature was above normal (July 2011-September 2012)
*Updated outlook for December 2012: Equal chances for above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. This is a change from the previous outlook which had the Northland in below average temperatures during December. (Source, Climate Prediction Center)
*LRC December 2012 forecast for Duluth, Minnesota*
Average monthly temperature: 16.0F
Departure from average: +1.2 degrees
Total snowfall: 15.0″
Departure from average: -2.7″
Number of days with snow: 11
Number of days with a low temperature at or colder than 0F: 5
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm front stretched from the Western Dakotas to Southeast Nebraska late Today. The Northland remained on the cool side of this front on this final day of November 2012, net result from this was another day of low clouds along with some patchy fog, light freezing drizzle, snow showers and flurries. High temperatures were in the mid 20s to lower 30s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A westerly flow continues Today across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. One disturbance is moving through the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes while a new one heads east through the Northern Rockies Today. 850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Western and Southern Minnesota to 0 to -6C in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: Above average.
Tonight (November 30th)
Skies will remain mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle, fog, and snow flurries. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the 20s and lower 30s. Winds will be out of the south or east at up to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (December 1st)
An area of low pressure will pass west/north of our area this period while a warm front and cold front track through the Northland. Some rain showers or mixed rain, sleet, and snow showers should affect some parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening. Precipitation that does develop shouldn’t be that heavy, and no significant travel problems are expected. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to lower 30s. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph. Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the north/west at 10 to 20 mph.
-Precipitation forecast valid until 6 PM CST Saturday. Any rain or mixed precipitation that does occur won’t amount to much with precip totals under 0.10″ in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Above average.
Sunday through Tuesday (December 2nd-4th)
Sunday looks dry and pleasant for early December as high temperatures get into the 30s and lower 40s. A strong low pressure system tracks NW of our area early next week with two cold fronts moving through the Northland on Monday. A few rain showers are possible during the day Monday, and then we could see a few snow flakes Monday Night-Tuesday as chillier air moves in. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s in far Northern Minnesota and the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 20s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s. Lows Monday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Average.
The middle of next week continues to look pretty quiet. We may see some changes occur from late next week into the following week, or from the 6th-10th with a bit of snow or mixed precipitation possible at times in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Near to above average temperatures are forecast to continue through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible. Temperatures nearly steady between 27 to 32. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning. A few Afternoon rain showers possible. High 34 to 39. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible early. Low 27 to 32. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 37 to 42.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Monday… Partly sunny. Unseasonably mild. High 43 to 48.
.Monday Night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 7:34 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:22 PM CST