Monthly Archives: November 2012

/Issued 2:33 PM CST, Friday, November 30th, 2012/

-The Climate Prediction Center released it’s updated December 2012 outlook Today.  Gone is the potential for below average temps in the Dakotas and Minnesota.  This new outlook is kind of similar to the LRC’s December forecast.  I think were in for a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures here in Minnesota.  The coldest air will proabably occur during the middle of the month and into Christmas week.

-Updated precipitation outlook for December 2012 per Climate Prediction Center.

Weather Tidbits:

*November 2012 will finish with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota which will be the 5th month in a row to do so. (July-November)

*November 2012 will end up with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  Will this be the start of a new streak of months that have above average temps? Remember last time we put together 15 consecutive months where the average monthly temperature was above normal (July 2011-September 2012)

*Updated outlook for December 2012:  Equal chances for above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  This is a change from the previous outlook which had the Northland in below average temperatures during December.  (Source, Climate Prediction Center)

*LRC December 2012 forecast for Duluth, Minnesota*

Average monthly temperature:  16.0F
Average:  14.8F
Departure from average:  +1.2 degrees

Total snowfall:  15.0″
Average:  17.7″
Departure from average:  -2.7″

Number of days with snow:  11
Number of days with a low temperature at or colder than 0F:  5

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front stretched from the Western Dakotas to Southeast Nebraska late Today.  The Northland remained on the cool side of this front on this final day of November 2012, net result from this was another day of low clouds along with some patchy fog, light freezing drizzle, snow showers and flurries.  High temperatures were in the mid 20s to lower 30s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow continues Today across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  One disturbance is moving through the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes while a new one heads east through the Northern Rockies Today.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Western and Southern Minnesota to 0 to -6C in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  Above average.

Tonight (November 30th)

Skies will remain mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle, fog, and snow flurries.  Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the 20s and lower 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at up to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 1st)

An area of low pressure will pass west/north of our area this period while a warm front and cold front track through the Northland.  Some rain showers or mixed rain, sleet, and snow showers should affect some parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening.  Precipitation that does develop shouldn’t be that heavy, and no significant travel problems are expected.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the north/west at 10 to 20 mph.

-Precipitation forecast valid until 6 PM CST Saturday.  Any rain or mixed precipitation that does occur won’t amount to much with precip totals under 0.10″ in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Above average.

Sunday through Tuesday (December 2nd-4th)

Sunday looks dry and pleasant for early December as high temperatures get into the 30s and lower 40s.  A strong low pressure system tracks NW of our area early next week with two cold fronts moving through the Northland on Monday.  A few rain showers are possible during the day Monday, and then we could see a few snow flakes Monday Night-Tuesday as chillier air moves in.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s in far Northern Minnesota and the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 20s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Average.

(December 5th-10th)

The middle of next week continues to look pretty quiet.  We may see some changes occur from late next week into the following week, or from the 6th-10th with a bit of snow or mixed precipitation possible at times in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast to continue through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible.  Temperatures nearly steady between 27 to 32.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning.  A few Afternoon rain showers possible.  High 34 to 39.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain showers possible early.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  Unseasonably mild.   High 43 to 48.

.Monday Night…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  14

Sunrise Saturday:  7:34 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 2:52 PM CST, Wednesday, November 28th, 2012/

*Breaking down the numbers for Fall 2012 and Fall 2011 (September-November)

Has it been colder this fall compared to last?  Snowier than last fall?  Lets take a look.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location data)

Fall 2012 thru November 28th:

Number of days with a high temperature colder than 32F:  7

Number of days with a low temperature colder than 32F:  36
Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  1

Total precipitation:  3.51″
Average:  8.88″
Departure from average:  -5.37″

Total snowfall:  11.3″
Average:  14.4″
Departure from average:  -3.1″

Fall 2011, September 1st-November 30th:

Number of days with a high temperature colder than 32F:  7

Number of days with a low temperature colder than 32F:  35

Total precipitation:  3.24″

Total snowfall:  2.4″

Bottom line:

-Were running about one quarter inch ahead of last fall when it comes to precipitation.

-Around 9.0″ more snow this fall compared to last fall.

-Really haven’t seen much difference in the number of days at or below freezing for both daytime highs and nighttime lows in Duluth this fall vs. last fall, but the shots of cold air have been stronger this fall compared to last.

Weather Tidbits:

*Even with the recent cold snap, the average monthly temperature for November 1-27, 2012 at Duluth, Minnesota remains above normal by 2.1 degrees (31.7F)  Looks like November will finish with a temperature surplus with just 2 days remaining in the month.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with some Morning snow showers and flurries.  Quite a wide range in temperatures with teens far Northeast Minnesota to the upper 20s and lower 30s across the rest of our area.  Winds were out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A strong NW flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with a 160 knot jet off to our north in Western Ontario per RAP model analysis, this jet stream is separating arctic air in Canada to building warmth in the Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from-12 to -20C in Ontario to -4 to -10C in Northern/Eastern Minnesota to 0 to -2C in Western/Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  Above Average.

Tonight (November 28th)

A cold front will drop south through our area Tonight with high pressure moving into Manitoba.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with low temperatures ranging from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will shift from the southwest to the north/east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (November 29th)

Strong high pressure will be centered to our north during this period with a stationary front well to our west/south.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  A few snow showers and flurries are possible, mainly in Northern Minnesota for Thursday Night.  Highs on Thursday will range from the teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  East winds are expected this period at 10 to 15 mph.  Note:  E/NE surface winds coming off Lake Superior could generate a few lake effect snow showers and flurries on Thursday along the North and South Shore.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Above Average.

Friday through Sunday (November 30th-December 2nd)

A warm front west and south of the Northland on Friday will make a move toward us on Saturday as low pressure moves through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  This system exits to our east on Sunday.  Areas of light precipitation is possible at times Friday into early Sunday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The type of precipitation we see depends on the surface temperature, so for now anything from rain, freezing rain/drizzle, and perhaps even some snow is a possibility, whatever does fall shouldn’t amount too very much though.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Saturday and Sunday we warm into the 30s with a few 40s even possible.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Average.

(December 3rd-8th)

Another Pacific system passes west-north of our area next Monday/Tuesday (3rd-4th)  A few rain showers are possible on Monday with wrap-around flurries or snow showers on Tuesday.  Looks mainly dry for the middle of next week (5th-6th) A new system could bring some snow to the area between the 7th-8th.  Above average temperatures on the 3rd will drop toward average levels for the remainder of this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north Overnight.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  A few flurries possible.  High 21 to 26.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 28.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain or snow showers possible.  High 32 to 36.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain or snow showers possible.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29
Low:  15

Sunrise Thursday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 3:25 PM CST, Tuesday, November 27th, 2012/

*Snowfall report for November 27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  4.0″
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0″
10 N of Esko, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0″
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.6″ Official NWS total
Hoyt Lakes, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5″
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  1.5″
Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0″
Brule, WI (Douglas County)  1.0″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0″
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  0.7″

Weather Tidbits:

-Fall 2012 (September-November) 27 days (so far) with a trace or more of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  Fall 2011 had 17 days.

-Today is the 6th consecutive day with at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  (Nov. 22-27)  Also, 4 of the past 6 days has had at least 1.0″ of snow.

-Unofficial stats:  With the 2.6″ of snow at Duluth, Minnesota Today…This brings our monthly snowfall total to 10.1″ and our seasonal snowfall total to 11.3″.  Both numbers are a little below where we should be at this time of year.

-Record high temperature of 60 degrees on this date in 1998 at Duluth, Minnesota.

Top 10 snowiest cities according to an article by dailybeast.com

1:  Syracuse, New York.  103.1″
2:  Rochester, New York:  88.3″
3:  Buffalo, New York:  85.7″
4:  Duluth, Minnesota:  82.6″
5:  Flagstaff, Arizona:  81.1″
6:  Erie, Pennsylvania:  78.7″
7:  Casper, Wyoming:  76.2″
8:  Anchorage, Alaska:  72.7″
9:  Grand Rapids, Michigan:  72.3″
10:  Portland, Maine:  70.6″

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has been moving southeast across our area Today with some snow showers and flurries.  There’s also been smaller bands of moderate to heavy snow which have occurred Today, especially on the north side of Duluth, on up toward the Iron Range.  Most of us saw snowfall accumulations of less than an inch Today, but a few locations did pick up a few inches of snow under those heavier bands.  High temperatures were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow continued in the Upper Midwest Today with the latest disturbance to affect the Northland starting to exit to the east late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -4C across the Southern half of Minnesota to -6 to -10C in Northern Minnesota.  Note:  Seeing quite a temperature gradient Today with late day 850mb temperatures of -22C in Western Ontario to +6C in Central Kansas to +16C in Central Colorado.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence:  Above Average.

Tonight (November 27th)

A cold front will exit our area to the south/east This Evening with high pressure building in behind the front.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with Evening snow showers and flurries.  Low temperatures will range from the single digits below to low teens above zero with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (November 28th)

High pressure retreats to the east as Tonight’s cold front stalls and begins to lift back toward the N/NE as a warm front.  Partly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Low temps Wednesday Night will range from the single digits in Northern Minnesota to the lower 20s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the southwest or north at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Above Average.

Thursday through Saturday (November 29th-December 1st)

High pressure will set-up to our north during this period with a warm front off to our west/south.  Warmer air will be lifting into the Upper Midwest later this week, but with the snow pack currently over the Northland and the warm air going over this snow pack, we could see the development of some low clouds, fog, and maybe even some drizzle (freezing?) from Thursday Night into Saturday.  There could also be a few snow showers Thursday and Friday and mixed showers on Saturday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the teens and 20s on Thursday, warming to the 20s and 30s for Friday and Saturday.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Friday Night will mainly be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Average.

(December 2nd-7th)

A low pressure system could affect the Northland early next week (3rd-5th)  The track, strength, and timing of this system remains uncertain, but right now it doesn’t look like it would be a big storm with just light amounts of rain or snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Snow showers or flurries This Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 2 to 7.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 21 to 26.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 23 to 26.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29
Low:  16

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 4:29 PM CST, Monday, November 26th, 2012/

*18.6% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of November 26, 2012.  This is up from 10.0% at this time last year.  (NOHRSC)

*The map above is from 11/26/12.  Map on the bottom was from 11/26/11.

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 18-24, 2012:

11/18:  53F/19 degrees above normal
11/19:  53F/19 degrees above normal
11/20:  47F/14 degrees above normal
11/21:  51F/19 degrees above normal
11/22:  52F/20 degrees above normal (Record high tied)
11/23:  26F/5 degrees below normal
11/24:  20F/11 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 18-24, 2012:

11/18:  38F/17 degrees above normal
11/19:  37F/17 degrees above normal
11/20:  28F/8 degrees above normal
11/21:  31F/12 degrees above normal
11/22:  25F/7 degrees above normal
11/23:  12F/6 degrees below normal
11/24:  0F/17 degrees below normal

*No surprise here, temperatures during the week of Thanksgiving were way above average in Minnesota until Friday-Saturday, the days after Turkey day.

Precipitation total for 11/18-11/24, 2012:  0.46″
Average:  0.47″
Departure from average:  -0.01″

*Precipitation totals last week were near to above average in Northeast Minnesota, the rest of the state saw far less precipitation.

Low temperature report for November 26th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  3F
International Falls, MN:  2F
Brainerd, MN:  5F
Hibbing, MN:  -3F
Sky Harbor, MN:  9F
Two Harbors, MN:  1F
Orr, MN:  0F
Cook, MN:  0F
Eveleth, MN:  1F
Bigfork, MN:  -2F
Grand Rapids, MN:  0F
Longville, MN:  1F
Pine River, MN:  0F
Cloquet, MN:  1F
Superior, WI:  4F
Siren, WI:  5F
3 E of Wright, MN:  -3F
Northome, MN:  -4F
Embarrass, MN:  1F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  1F
Winter, WI:  3F
Gordon, WI:  3F

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A very cold late November day as high temperatures only made it into the teens to around 20 degrees.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow was in place Today across the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -10 to -16C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term – Confidence…Above Average.

Tonight (November 26th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a low pressure system and cold front off to our NW.  Warm air advection out ahead of this system will likely be able to squeeze out at least a little bit of light snow and flurries in parts of our area Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens with winds out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (November 27th)

Low pressure and a cold front will be moving through our area on Tuesday, this system exits to our east for Tuesday Night.  Some light snow and flurries will likely occur at times on Tuesday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions returning for Tuesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and lower 30s with low temperatures Tuesday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2″ are possible Tonight/Tuesday, mainly in Northern Minnesota…Including the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and North Shore.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Above Average.

Wednesday through Friday (November 28th-30th)

High pressure will be centered to our north-northeast from mid to late week with a developing warm front to our west/south later this week.  There might be some light overrunning snow or mixed precipitation in parts of the Northland, especially Thursday Night and Friday, but right now this doesn’t look like a very big deal.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s, warming to the 20s and 30s for Thursday and Friday.  Low temperatures in the single digits below to low teens above zero Wednesday Night will moderate into the teens and lower 20s for Thursday Night.

Long Range Forecast- Confidence:  Average.

(December 1st-6th)

Near to above normal temperatures are forecast through this period with a persistent west or west-southwest flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  Multiple low pressure systems will likely move through our area from the 1st-6th, but none of them look to be very potent at this time with just minimal amounts of rain or snow expected in our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few snow showers or flurries possible at times.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Accumulations under 1″.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 28 to 33.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  30
Low:  16

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim