/Issued 4:00 PM CST, Thursday, November 29th, 2012/
-Meso Analysis plot of near freezing (32F) surface temperatures from 3 PM Today. The purple dash line represents the 32 degree temperature line. It lines up quite well with snow cover vs. non-snow cover areas in Minnesota Today. (Source, Storm Prediction Center)
-Here’s a visible satellite image from 2 PM CST Today. There’s little to no snow on the ground in Southern Minnesota, but if you go north of Interstate 94 in Central Minnesota you will run into a snow pack of at least a few inches deep. South of the snow pack, temperatures soared into the 40s Today, while snow covered areas stayed in the 20s to around 30 degrees with teens in far Northern Minnesota.
Drought worsening in Minnesota.
Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of November 27th, 2012
Source: Climate Prediction Center
*97% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 96% last week.
*83% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 43% last week.
*25% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
Drought Monitor for Wisconsin as of November 27th, 2012
Source: Climate Prediction Center
*61% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 53% last week.
*25% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 15% last week.
Weather Tidbits:
-The area of Minnesota covered by severe drought has increased dramatically between late August (19%) and late November (83%)
-New data is in from the LRC. 53.6″ of snow is now forecast for Duluth, Minnesota this winter (December-February) Average is 49.5″. Source: Josh Herman. LRC.
-Looks like December 2012 could be an up and down month when it comes to temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota. Per LRC: Temperature departure from average is as follows:
Dec. 1-14: +2.5 degrees. Dec. 15-28: -3.3 degrees. Dec. 29-31: +7.3 degrees.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A huge contrast in temperatures across Minnesota Today with arctic high pressure to our north and a developing warm front to our south. Highs ranged from the teens and 20s in Northern Minnesota to the lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin with 40s common in Southern Minnesota. Skies were mostly cloudy Today and there’s been some snow flurries at times in some parts of the Northland. Winds were out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near Lake Superior.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Seeing a west to east flow in the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level disturbance heading east through the Dakotas. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +6C in Southern Minnesota to 0 to -14C in Central and Northern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: Above average.
Tonight (November 29th)
Expect some snow showers and flurries and maybe a little light freezing drizzle in the Northland Tonight as skies remain mostly cloudy. A warm front well to our west/south combined with warm air advection will be responsible in generating the precip Tonight. Also, an onshore wind combined with an arctic airmass just north of Lake Superior could lead to some lake effect snow showers Tonight, especially along the North Shore from French River and Two Harbors, northeast to Silver Bay, Lutsen, Tofte, and Grand Marais. Lows Tonight will range from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (November 30th)
High pressure will move off to our NE this period with a warm front staying put to our west/south. Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with areas of light freezing drizzle, snow showers, and flurries possible. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night in the 20s to lower 30s. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.
Note: Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ are possible Tonight and Friday along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and also along the Minnesota-Ontario border.
-18z RAP model precipitation forecast, ending at 6 AM Friday. Liquid precip totals of 0.05-0.10″ along the North Shore of Lake Superior could fluff up to a 1-3″ snowfall Tonight.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Above average.
Saturday through Monday (December 1st-3rd)
An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front is set to move through our area from Saturday into early Sunday…This system could bring some showers of rain or snow to the Northland on Saturday. Looks dry on Sunday, and then will look to Monday for when the next weather system moves through our area, a few rain showers could occur during the day Monday with flurries/snow showers for Monday Night.
High temperatures Saturday through Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Average.
(December 4th-9th)
Next Tuesday looks cooler as deep low pressure moves through Central Canada, flurries/snow showers could wrap around this system and affect the Northland on the 4th. Mid-week looks generally dry. The period from the 6th-9th could bring some snow or mixed precipitation to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period.
-As of November 24th, 2012: An additional trace to 3″ of precipitation is needed to get back to average in Northeast Minnesota. As much as 3-9″ in Northern Minnesota, and about 3-6″ in Northwest Wisconsin. (Source Climate Prediction Center/Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Snow showers and flurries at times. Patchy light freezing drizzle also possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Patchy light freezing drizzle possible along with a few snow showers or flurries. High 28 to 33. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Temperatures holding nearly steady between 28 to 33. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible during the Afternoon. High 33 to 38.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible, mainly during the Evening. Low 27 to 32.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 37 to 42.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 28
Low: 15
Sunrise Friday: 7:33 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:22 PM CST
Tim