/Issued 7:30 PM CST, Sunday, January 6th, 2013/
*Weather rewind:
An incredible lake effect snow event occurred in 1994 on January 6-7. Very cold air combined with a favorable E/NE wind resulted in a tremendous amount of lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior. By the time the snow ended, anywhere from 20-40″+ accumulated from Duluth, on up the North Shore. (Archived maps from NARR)
Weather History:
-On this date in 1994: 16.3″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota. Yep, the classic winters of the 1990s!
-On this date in 2003: A record high temperature of 46 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
December 30-January 5, 2012-13:
12/30: 19F/Normal
12/31: 18F/1 degrees below normal
1/1: 14F/5 degrees below normal
1/2: 20F/1 degrees above normal
1/3: 21F/2 degrees above normal
1/4: 34F/15 degrees above normal
1/5: 28F/9 degrees above normal
Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
December 30-January 5, 2012-13:
12/30: -2F/5 degrees below normal
12/31: -5F/8 degrees below normal
1/1: -9F/12 degrees below normal
1/2: 13F/10 degrees above normal
1/3: 12F/10 degrees above normal
1/4: 13F/11 degrees above normal
1/5: 8F/6 degrees above normal
Precipitation total for Dec. 30-Jan. 5, 2012-13: Trace
Normal: 0.25″
Departure: -0.25″
*Temperature departure map for 12/30-1/5
*Precipitation departure map for 12/30-1/5
Weather Tidbits:
*1.44″ of precipitation has fallen since December 1st, 2012 at Duluth, Minnesota. This is right around average (+0.01″) Note: Last year, we only had 0.56″ of precipitation between 12/1 and 1/6.
*24.8″ of snow has fallen so far this season at Duluth, Minnesota. This is 13.0″ below average. Note: Last year, we had 12.0″ of snow down by January 6th. Were running 14″ ahead this winter vs. last winter.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A typical winter day in the Northland with partly cloudy to sunny skies with high temperatures in the teens and 20
s. Winds shifted around from the northwest to the south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A westerly flow covered the Upper Midwest while a potent upper trough/low with height falls of up to 120 meters digs into the Southwest U.S. There’s also another rather strong disturbance tracking east through Southwest Canada and the Northern Rockies This Evening with height falls of up to 150 meters per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from 0 to +2C in Western and Southern Minnesota to -4 to -10C in Central and Northern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 6th)
Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue with low temperatures ranging from around 0 to the mid teens. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday and Monday Night (January 7th)
Low pressure tracks through Ontario during this period while a cold front moves through the Northland. A few flakes may fly in Northern Minnesota, but overall this period looks dry. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. Southwest winds at 10 to 25 mph are forecast during this period.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (January 8th-10th)
Some light snow and flurries should affect our area from Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning as another area of low pressure passes north of our area. Looks like there could be a 1-2″ snowfall with this event, mainly in Northern Minnesota, including the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions. Dries out Wednesday Afternoon into most of Thursday. Then by Thursday Night our area could see some rain or mixed precipitation depending on the eventual track that a low in Texas takes. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s from Tuesday through Thursday with lows in the teens and 20s Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(January 11th-16th)
Some snow or mixed precipitation remains possible at times in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from the 11th-14th. Should be quite a bit cold air moving into the Western U.S. later this week with a decent ridge out east. The battle ground between the arctic air out west and warm air south/east might be able to spin up a low or two in the Plains and Great Lakes regions, and those systems if they develop and track close enough to the Northland may be able to bring some additional winter precipitation to our area later this week into the upcoming weekend.
For Duluth: Based on what I’m seeing in the computer models and some data from the LRC, I’m currently leaning toward a 1-4″ snowfall from January 11-14.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to below average through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 7 to 12. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Breezy. Partly to mostly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 18 to 23.
.Wednesday… Snow showers or flurries possible early. Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Monday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:38 PM CST
Tim