/Issued 4:34 PM CDT, Monday, July 15, 2013/
-The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has much of Minnesota and Wisconsin in a severe thunderstorm risk area on Thursday, this includes most of the Northland. More details below.
Rainfall report for July 14-15, 2013
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Brainerd, MN: 2.03″
Hibbing, MN: 0.92″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 3.21″
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.28″
Togo, MN: 0.28″
Babbitt, MN: 0.81″
Cook, MN: 0.37″
Embarrass, MN: 0.60″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.41″
2 S of Tower, MN: 0.37″
Finland, MN: 0.21″
10 W of Brainerd, MN: 3.30″
Chisholm, MN: 1.50″
Lakeshore, MN: 2.20″
*Rainfall map from Sunday, July 14, 2013. A swath of significant rain in a SW-NE band from Western to Northeast Minnesota with little to no rain east and northwest of there. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A frontal boundary extends from Northeast South Dakota to Central Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin to Central Upper Michigan as of 4 PM. Occasional showers have been occurring Today north of that front across Northern Minnesota. The bulk of the rain late This Afternoon was along and north of a line from Bemidji to Hibbing to Ely and into the Arrowhead with movement toward the east-northeast. The rest of our area was dry under partly to mostly sunny skies with patchy fog at times closer to Lake Superior. Highs were in the 70s and 80s with 60s near Lake Superior. Dew points were mainly in the 60s. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 15th)
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue in Northern Minnesota as a warm front lifts slowly north through the night. Could be some heavier downpours at times with the tropical airmass in place. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with areas of fog especially near Lake Superior. Lows will mainly be in the 60s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (July 16th)
A cold front will move into far Northern Minnesota by Tomorrow Night. A very warm and humid airmass will be in place south of that front with highs reaching the 80s and 90s on Tuesday with lows Tuesday Night in the balmy 60s and 70s. Dew points in the 60s to lower 70s will be common once again Tomorrow and this combined with the very warm temperatures will result in Afternoon heat indicies climbing into the 90-96 degree range.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period with areas of Morning fog mainly near Lake Superior. A few showers and thunderstorms could develop Tuesday Night in Northern Minnesota, however, there shouldn’t be any severe weather.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Wednesday through Friday (July 17th-19th)
…Severe thunderstorm chances may increase Wednesday and Thursday…
*Wednesday will see a cold front continue to sink south across the Northland with a rather unstable airmass developing along and south of that front with CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7C. 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear is forecast to range from 30-40 knots with not much of a low level jet, but the mid level winds will be around 30-45 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday Night, mainly from the North Shore and Twin Ports area, to the Brainerd Lakes, and east into Northwest Wisconsin. A few of these storms could become strong to severe Wednesday PM.
*Thursday will see a frontal boundary stall out, likely in Central sections of Minnesota while an area of low pressure moves east out of the Northern Plains and tracks along that said boundary. Thursday has potential of being an active severe weather day in parts of the Northland, but much will depend on where exactly the front sets up and on the strength of the cap.
Current indications show the greatest severe weather threat setting up north of I94 in Central Minnesota and west/south of Highway 2 in Northeastern Minnesota. The computer models are showing some alarming parameters Today with sufficient instability, shear, low level jet, and favorable mid/upper level winds to support a risk of severe thunderstorms with all modes of severe quite possible including large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Stay tuned in coming days as things could change as to where the best ingredients for severe storms sets up.
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s possible especially on Wednesday. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will mainly be in the 60s. Note: It will be cooler near Lake Superior Wednesday and Thursday, may even see some fog develop at times.
*Surface map for Thursday, July 18, 2013. Might be one of those ‘rare’ 2013 good setup days if you want severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest. Stay tuned. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(July 20th-25th)
This weekend looks mainly dry at the moment with chances for showers or thunderstorms returning from the 22th-25th. Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Areas of fog which could be dense at times, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Humid and very warm. Areas of fog in the Morning. Partly cloudy. High 87 to 92 but cooler closer to Lake Superior especially during the Morning. Wind becoming south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. Late Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 85 to 90 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Thursday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:31 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:58 PM CDT
Tim