/Issued 3:57 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 16, 2013/
*1-3″+ of snow is possible Sunday Night/Monday over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin per 12z GFS and EUROPEAN computer models. The image below is from the 12z GFS model run and is valid for Monday, October 21, 2013. (Source, TwisterData.com)
…A very mild and wet 1st half of October…
October 1-15, 2013 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota
Duluth (Airport location)
Average temperature: 53.7 degrees
Departure: +7.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.14″
Departure: +1.59″
International Falls:
Average temperature: 49.4 degrees
Departure: +5.1 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.44″
Departure: +0.32″
Twin Cities:
Average temperature: 57.4 degrees
Departure: +5.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 2.50″
Departure: +1.16″
St. Cloud:
Average temperature: 53.2 degrees
Departure: +4.2 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.68″
Departure: +2.29″
Note: The remainder of this month after Thursday and Friday looks much chillier. A far different 2nd half of October compared to what we saw during the 1st half.
*Temperature departure map for 1 October – 15 October, 2013. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*Precipitation departure map for 1 October – 15 October, 2013. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Rainfall report for October 15, 2013 (Totals after 7 AM Tuesday)
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.50″
Brainerd, MN: 0.22″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.37″
Hibbing, MN: 0.26″
Ashland, WI: 1.28″
Hayward, WI: 0.50″
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.38″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.43″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 0.34″
Cook, MN: 0.20″
Duluth, MN (NWS) 0.47″
Embarrass, MN: 0.30″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.41″
Finland, MN: 0.44″
Butternut, WI: 0.83″
Gurney, WI: 1.10″
Madeline Island, WI: 1.33″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 0.99″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.80″
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
-4 days with a high temperature of at least 70F and 1 day with a high temperature in the 40s so far this month. Still waiting for that 1st night at or below freezing too, should get that soon, probably this weekend.
-48F on October 15, 2013. This was the coldest maximum temperature since May 11 (47F)
-So far this month 9 days with measurable precipitation (0.01″ or greater)
-1.31″ of rain fell on Tuesday, this was just 0.03″ away from the 24 hour precipitation record of 1.34″ for the 15th of October which was set in 1933.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1002mb covered Eastern Ontario/Eastern Great Lakes late This Afternoon with a cold front stretching from Western Ontario to Northern North Dakota. The Northland sat in between these 2 systems Today, end result was for increasing amounts of sunshine after widespread clouds and even fog for some during the Morning hours. As of late This Afternoon clouds were hanging on from Hayward to Park Falls with generally clear skies for the rest of us. Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s with northwest or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 16)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 30s and 40s. A cold front will move SE and into the Northland later Tonight, but no precipitation is expected. Winds will be out of the southwest or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (October 17)
Looks like there will be some rain at times during this period especially over Northeast and Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin with spotty showers possible in Northern Minnesota. This precipitation will occur due to a cold front and wave of low pressure which will be moving through the Upper Midwest. Highs will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Northwest or southwest winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.
*Could pick up 0.10″-0.25″ of rain Thursday and Thursday Night in parts of the Northland with greater than 0.25″ totals possible in Northwest Wisconsin and in far Northeast Minnesota. (Source, 18z High-Res NAM/WRF model)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (October 18-20)
A few showers in the form of rain, snow, or even some ice pellets should occur at times from Friday into Saturday as an upper level trough and colder air aloft moves over the Northland. Looks mainly dry during the day on Sunday, but a clipper system may affect the region starting Sunday Night with the potential for some rain or snow. High temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s on Friday and in the 30s and 40s Saturday and Sunday. Lows Friday Night will mainly be in the 30s. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(October 21-26)
The 1st accumulating snow of the fall season may occur over some portions of the Northland early next week as low pressure heads east-southeast through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. The thickness values and H85 temperatures look cold enough to support snow, but temperatures near the surface look marginal to keep precipitation falling as snow, this is typical for these early season snow events by the way. Also, the track of the low and the timing may play a role in whether or not we see snow, rain, or a combination of the 2. Note: I think if most of the precip occurs late Sunday Night/Monday AM – then there’s a decent chance that it would be in the form of snow. If it falls more during the daytime hours on Monday – then I think we’d see more of a rain/snow mix. It’s early in the game and the computer models will probably change a bit between now and Monday, but there is a potential for 1-3″ of snow early next week in some parts of NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin.
The rest of next week looks cold as an early season version of the Polar Vortex sets up to our N/NE this keeps the Upper Midwest in a chilly NNW flow with possible showers of snow and or rain occurring from time to time. Below average temperatures are forecast from the 21st through 26th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear with some increase in cloudiness late. Low 35 to 40. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers possible. High 43 to 48. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Showers possible during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 33 to 38. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Rain or snow showers possible. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 52
Low: 35
Sunrise Thursday: 7:30 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:17 PM CDT
Tim