/Issued 4:09 PM CST, Tuesday, November 26, 2013/
*Future radar for 6 PM Tonight per 12z experimental WRF model out of the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.
*And for 6 AM CST Wednesday. Note how the bands change between the top image and the bottom one. Wind changes direction affects the orientation of the lake snow bands. Pretty interesting.
*Here’s my lake effect snow accumulation forecast valid thru Wednesday. Note: Be sure to slow down and use extreme caution if you have travel plans along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and on Wednesday as roads will be snow covered and hazardous. Visibilities will drop to fractions of a mile at times in the heavier snow showers. North winds gusting to 25 mph will also cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Another shot of unseasonably cold air moved into the Northland Today with high pressure of 1034mb covering the Northern Plains and low pressure over Eastern Ontario which combined with a north/northwest flow is helping to bring down another lobe of very cold air for this time of year. Highs Today were in the teens to around 20 degrees which is 10 to around 20 degrees colder than average for Today’s date. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common along with some Morning flurries and snow showers. Lake effect snow has occurred at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior Today with 850mb temps down to around -18C while water temps hover around 40F so there’s plenty of instability in place to get lake effect snow to develop.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 26)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the single digits below to around 10 above zero. Winds will be out of the north/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (November 27)
Low pressure approaches from the northwest during this period. Some light snow should develop across the Northland during the Afternoon-Evening hours and then continuing through Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the teens to around 20. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.
*Here’s my snowfall forecast for the little event that moves in Wednesday PM and lingers into Thursday AM. Note: Heavier snowfall amounts are expected along the North Shore of Lake Superior where 4″+ of snow could accumulate.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (November 28-30)
Light snow or flurries could continue over parts of the Northland on Thanksgiving Day, although most of the snow should be confined to the Morning hours the way it looks now. Otherwise will see partly sunny to overcast skies on Turkey Day 2013 with highs in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.
Friday looks mainly dry at the moment with highs in the 20s with lows in the teens. Another system approaches from the NW on Saturday which could lead to a little bit of light snow over Northern Minnesota. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(December 1-6)
Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period. The overall pattern could turn more active next week with potential snow event/s affecting portions of the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes. Stay tuned!
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 5 below to 15 below zero.
.Wednesday… Increasing cloudiness. High 17 to 22. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Light snow and flurries. Temperatures holding nearly steady between 17-22 degrees. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thanksgiving Day… Snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the Morning. Total snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less. Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 23 to 28.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 30
Low: 16
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:28 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:24 PM CST
Tim