/Issued 2:37 PM CDT, Saturday, July 26, 2014/
Water vapor satellite image from 2:45 PM CDT Today. An area of low pressure (L on the map) over Southern Manitoba This Afternoon heads southeast through Sunday which means there will be some showers at times with even some t-storms especially Tonight. Source, COD.
*Today marks the 51st day so far this year with a high temperature of at least 70F at the Duluth Airport compared to 49 days by this time last year. The annual average is 85 days.
*More 80 degrees days by this time last year compared to this year at the Duluth Airport. 25 days in 2013 vs. 16 days in 2014.
Severe weather stats for 2014 – ending on July 25
Source: Storm Prediction Center
Note: This data is preliminary and is subject to change.
Minnesota:
Tornadoes: 20
Large Hail: 101
Damaging winds: 134
Total: 255 severe weather reports.
Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
Wisconsin:
Tornadoes: 17
Large Hail: 76
Damaging Winds: 140
Total: 233 severe weather reports.
Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
Weather Summary for July 26, 2014
Location: NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A warm late July day across the Northland under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures were in the upper 70s to mid 80s with tolerable dew point temperatures which were generally in the 50s. Winds were out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Weather map as of 3 PM featured low pressure centers of 1006mb to the ENE and NW of our local area with a cold front and prefrontal trough moving into the Northwest half of Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 26)
The airmass has destabilized quite nicely over the Northland This Afternoon with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg along with Lifted Indices ranging from -1 to -4C. There’s about 30-40 knots of deep layer shear out there and winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are on the strong side. A strong upper level low and upper trough with height falls averaging 60 meters/12 hours is currently over Southern Manitoba and will drop south/east into the Upper Midwest Tonight. Moisture out ahead of this system isn’t the greatest thanks to the cold frontal passage which occurred earlier Today, that front has swept the deeper moisture to our S/E Today, but there is enough moisture and certainly enough forcing with the approaching boundary and upper low to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area Tonight. A few of the storms could be on the strong side mainly This Evening with gusty winds and hail possible. If you have outdoor plans Tonight be sure to pay attention to the weather and be prepared to move indoors or into a safe shelter should a thunderstorm approach your area.
Low temperatures Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 50s and 60s with southwest winds turning northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (July 27)
Cooler temperatures will move into the region during this period as a potent upper level low/trough digs into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are expected during the day Tomorrow and early Tomorrow Evening with dry weather for most of Tomorrow Night.
Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 60s with a few 70s possible. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Northerly winds are forecast this period at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (July 28-30)
A persistent NNW upper level flow will cover the Upper Midwest during this period. Can’t rule out a spotty shower or two during the Afternoon-Evening hours due to an area of cold air aloft which will be over the Great Lakes and portions of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures look pleasant with highs Monday-Wednesday generally in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s for Monday Night and Tuesday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
July 31-August 5)
Near normal temperatures are forecast through this period, so in other words not too cold and not too warm, some may call it perfect summer weather. I know I won’t be complaining. No big systems either so any showers if any do develop will likely be isolated in coverage.
Lake Superior water temperature map as of 26JULY, 2014. The average water temperature over Lake Superior is at 49.8F per GLCFS.
A zoomed in version of Western Lake Superior water temperatures as of 26JULY, 2014. Water temps around the Duluth Harbor are in upper 50s to around 60 degrees Today. Warm enough to swim, maybe.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest late.
.Sunday… Cooler. Considerable cloudiness with possible showers. High 64 to 69. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 70 to 75,
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 72 to 77.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Sunday: 5:43 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:47 PM CDT
Tim