/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Thursday, April 9, 2015/
A very active weather pattern in place Today. Deepening low pressure tracks northeast out of far Southeast Iowa Tonight. Showers/thunderstorms…Severe weather and possible tornadoes This Evening from the Wisconsin-Illinois border points south and east. The blue circled area represents where rain will turn to heavy wet snow during the night with THUNDERSNOW even possible — Snow totals of 4-8″+ are possible by Friday Morning in that blue outlined area. Meanwhile to our NW, a potent disturbance drops SSE out of Manitoba with vigorous rain/snow showers possible late Tonight-Friday Morning in that green outlined area on the map. Notice how Duluth and Superior misses out with one storm to our SE and another to our west and northwest Tonight. Source, water vapor satellite image; college of dupage website.
A soaking rain last night well to the southeast of the Northland. Some parts of Southern Wisconsin picked up 1-2″+ rain totals earlier Today. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
NWS hazards map. Purple=Winter Weather Advisory…More information at this link, http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
Our next chance for rain comes on Sunday as a cold front (Blue line on the map) moves east out of the Dakotas. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Severe weather reports for April 8, 2015. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Large hail reports
Green dots=Damaging wind reports
Weather Summary for April 9, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
There’s been some light rain, drizzle, and wet snow in parts of Eastern and Northeast Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin Today as a strong spring storm with low pressure of 998mb centers itself over Southeastern Iowa as of 3 PM Today. Large scale ascent is really starting to increase late This Afternoon with heavier bands of precipitation now developing and moving NE through Southeast Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin while a deformation band of precipitation moves slowly ENE through Southern, Central, and Eastern Minnesota late Today. Northern Minnesota had sunny to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s while overcast conditions kept high temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5 to around 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (April 9)
Low pressure will move from Southeast Iowa to far Eastern Upper Michigan by daybreak as pressures fall from around 998mb to around 990mb by late Tonight. This system will bring an area of rain/snow changing to all snow in parts of Northwest Wisconsin Tonight while some drizzle and light rain in Eastern and Northeast Minnesota This Evening tapers off during the night. A separate but potent disturbance centered over Central Manitoba late This Afternoon will drop SSE into the Upper Midwest Tonight — This feature should bring an area of rain and snow showers to Western-Southwest parts of the Northland later Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.
Friday and Friday Night (April 10)
A vigorous upper level disturbance will pass SSE through the Upper Midwest Friday Morning — This system should produce some rain or snow showers Tomorrow Morning mainly in Southwest portions of the Northland, otherwise will have high pressure in control of our weather during this period resulting in partly-mostly cloudy skies on Friday and mostly clear skies for Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. North or northwest winds on Friday will gradually turn to the west or southwest Friday Night.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (April 11-13)
Mainly dry weather is expected on Saturday with increasing southerly winds which should boost high temperatures into the 50s and 60s although it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Warm air advection developing during the day could lead to a few isolated showers or sprinkles mainly in Western-Northern areas Saturday PM, but most of us should stay dry on Saturday. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.
A low pressure system and cold front will move east through the Northland on Sunday. Low level moisture is forecast to increase ahead of this system with dew points possibly climbing into the 40s while PWATS increase to around an inch. We should see widespread showers affect Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Evening with isolated thunderstorms possible as well with elevated CAPE climbing to around 100-400 j/kg the way it looks now.
Note: Highs on Sunday will depend on the timing of the cold front as well as the clouds/showers that accompanies it. If this system slows down a bit, then highs could soar into the 60s and even flirt with 70 degrees in some parts of the area on Sunday, but if the front moves in sooner, then clouds/showers will keep temperatures mainly in the 50s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Monday looks mainly dry at this time as low pressure exits to our east. Highs should mainly be in the 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(April 14-19)
Dry weather should continue on Tuesday (14th) After that we could get some rain or at least a potential for rain as a new low pressure system approaches from the Rockies and Plains from Wednesday-Friday (15th-17th) Near to above average temperatures are expected on the 14th-15th with near to below average temperatures from the 16th-19th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. Patchy drizzle early. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Sunny with some Afternoon clouds. High 55 to 60.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Showers developing especially during the Afternoon. High 50 to 55.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers mainly during the Evening. Low 35 to 40.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 52 to 57.
Normal temperatures for Friday
High: 46
Low: 27
Sunrise Friday: 6:31 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 7:50 PM CDT
Tim