/Issued 7:31 PM CDT, Thursday, July 2, 2015/
Minnesota severe weather reports map for 2015 through June 29. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Red dots=Tornado reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Tornadoes: 11
Large hail: 54
Damaging wind: 38
Total: 115 severe weather reports so far this year.
Note: The 30 year tornado average is 36 (1985-2014)
Wisconsin severe weather reports map for 2015 through June 29. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Red dots=Tornado reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports
Tornadoes: 5
Large hail: 19
Damaging wind: 38
Total: 62 severe weather reports so far this year.
Note: The 30 year tornado average is 22 (1985-2014)
829 tornadoes in the U.S. so far this year ending on July 1. Average through July 1 is 1008. 2015 is running below average in the number of tornadoes. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: July 2, 2015
A very nice early July day under mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms occurred mainly over the Arrowhead today with dry weather prevailing elsewhere. Highs were in the 70s to around 80 degrees and winds were out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 2)
A cold front will drop south toward the Minnesota-Ontario border by daybreak while high pressure remains centered to our south and east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with a few showers and thunderstorms possible at times mainly across Northern Minnesota. CAPE is forecast to range from 500-1000 j/kg tonight in Northern Minnesota with Lifted Indices around -2 to -3C so this is enough fuel to cause spotty storms tonight. Severe weather is not expected but locally heavy rain is a possibility as there will be quite a bit of moisture for a thunderstorm to tap into. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (July 3)
Cold front moves south through the Northland during this period with high pressure building into Ontario behind this cold front. A few showers and thunderstorms could develop at times through Friday Evening in parts of Northeast and East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dew points are forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s with PWATS of 1.00-1.30″ and CAPE of around 1000 j/kg. The cold front itself isn’t particularly strong, but there might be enough convergence and forcing near this boundary to trigger a few spotty showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s. Southwest or northwest winds are expected Tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with winds Tomorrow Night out of the north, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Note: Hazy/smoky conditions will likely continue in most of the Northland through Friday.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (July 4-6)
Mainly dry on the 4th of July with highs in the 70s and 80s but it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to an onshore wind, lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
A cold front will move slowly south/east through the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. A chance for showers and thunderstorms does exist in the Northland especially from late Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night with lingering showers possible on Monday mainly in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Note: Dew points might climb into the 60s, possibly up around 70 degrees Sunday Afternoon with the higher dew points expected to be over Western sections of the Northland so it will feel quite steamy on Sunday in parts of the Northland. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 60s.
Highs on Monday will be in the 70s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(July 7-12)
Dry weather is expected on Tuesday (7th) Showers or thunderstorms could return from time to time during the 8th-10th time frame, and possibly again toward the 12th. Near average temperatures are forecast from the 7th-12th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Hazy. Partly cloudy. Low 59 to 64. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.4th of July… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 78 to 83.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65.
.Monday… Showers possible mainly during the Morning. Considerable cloudiness. High 71 to 76.
Normal temperatures for Friday
High: 75
Low: 54
Sunrise Friday: 5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:06 PM CDT
Tim