/Issued 2:58 PM CDT, Saturday, September 5, 2015/
Rainfall estimates map from Friday night-Saturday morning. Green colors on the map are 1-4″ rainfall totals – Northern Minnesota was hit quite hard with heavy rainfall last night. Source, WSI.
Sunday’s severe weather outlook. Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.
Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)
Tonight’s severe weather outlook. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Dark green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)
Light green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms
Surface map forecast for late Sunday afternoon. Source, Weather Prediction Center; NDFD.
Blue line on map=Cold front
Slight risk (Green outlined area on the map) for rainfall totals to exceed flash flood guidance through Sunday morning. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Rainfall report for September 4-5, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
International Falls, MN: 0.58″
Hibbing, MN: 0.69″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 0.80″
Togo, MN: 0.57″
Cook, MN: 0.44″
Kabetogama, MN: 2.35″
3 E of Orr, MN: 0.40″
9.7 miles NNE of Two Harbors, MN: 1.24″
Walker, MN: 1.24″
3 E of Inger, MN: 3.20″
5 W of Bigfork, MN: 3.57″
Local Storm Reports for September 4, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*10:10 PM CDT: 0.25″ HAIL. 5 WNW of Scenic State Park, MN (Itasca County) Spotter reported pea sized hail and estimated wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph.
*8:00 PM CDT: 0.25″ HAIL. 1 WNW of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: September 5, 2015
North Central Minnesota and parts of Northeast Minnesota picked up a significant amount of rain last night/early this morning as thunderstorms tracked slowly north/east through those areas, a ton of moisture in the atmosphere combined with multiple rounds of storms in some areas led to an excessive amount of rain last night.
Today the Northland has been mainly dry with highs in the 80s but cooler 60s and 70s prevailed closer to Lake Superior. Sky conditions varied from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny. Areas of fog were common near Lake Superior today due to a moist onshore flow. Winds away from Lake Superior were out of the south or southeast today at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight through Sunday night (September 5-6)
A cold front over the Northern Plains this afternoon will move toward the south/east through Sunday evening — This boundary should exit the Northland by late Sunday night.
A very moist and unstable airmass will linger ahead of this cold front through Sunday evening with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s with PWATS in the 1.30-2.00″ range. As for the instability…CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg are expected with Lifted Indices of -3 to -8C.
Will likely see a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms affect Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from tonight through Sunday night with some breaks in the precipitation likely as well. With all of the moisture in the air the potential for heavy rain will persist through Sunday evening. There’s also a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats along with dangerous lightning strikes.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s and 70s. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Sunday night in the 60s. Winds tonight and tomorrow will be out of the south, southwest, or southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Winds tomorrow night will be out of the west, northwest, or south at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (September 6-8)
Cooler and less humid weather for early to mid next week with mainly dry conditions too. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 70s with lows Monday night in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday night in the 40s and 50s.
**Stay weather aware as thunderstorms will affect portions of the Northland through Sunday evening**
Have a good night and thanks for reading.
Tim