/Issued 5:14 PM CST, Wednesday, December 16, 2015/
Water vapor satellite image from 5 PM CST today. Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5:15 PM CST. Source, WSI.
Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Thursday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
December 1-15, 2015 temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Could be looking at an all-time record warm December or a top 5 warmest in much of the Upper Midwest depending on how the final 2 weeks of the month goes. Incredibly warm first half of the month.
December 1-15, 2015 precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
A very wet first half of December. Duluth’s precipitation total of 2.49″ thru the 15th is +300% of what normally falls from December 1-15.
*Record 24-hour snowfall total*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
7.1″ of snow so far today (December 16) at the Duluth Airport – This is a record snowfall total for the 16th of December. The previous record was 6.6″ set in 2006.
Note: I’ll have a complete snowfall totals list in Thursday’s blog post.
December 1-15, 2015 climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
Average temperature: 33.2 degrees
Departure: +16.0 degrees warmer than average
Total precipitation: 2.49″
Departure: +1.87″ above average
Total snowfall: 9.3″
Departure: +1.2″ above average
-Just one day so far this month with a high temperature at or below 32 degrees and that occurred on the 15th with a high temperature of 31 degrees.
-The coldest low temperature so far this month just 21 degrees on the 4th.
Note: The warmest December on record is 32.7 degrees set in 1877. So far this month we are warmer than December 1877 but we still have 2 weeks left to go so we could see the average temperature fall just a bit by the end of the month. Will see what happens.
Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date: December 16, 2015
Strong low pressure averaging 992mb was centered near Duluth, Minnesota as of 3 PM today – Impressive 500mb 12-hour height falls of 150-210 meters were found over the Northland this afternoon as this latest storm passes through the area.
A round of wet heavy snow with several inches of accumulation moved through Northeast Minnesota this morning while wet snow, sleet and rain occurred in Northwest Wisconsin. Snow near Lake Superior also changed over to drizzle and rain for a few hours today. Another burst of heavy wet snow mixed with sleet and some rain moved north through parts of Eastern and Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Highs today ranged from the upper 20s to mid 30s and winds were out of the east, southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (December 16)
Low pressure will move to just north of Lake Superior by daybreak. Snow across Northeast Minnesota will end from SW-NE this evening with flurries and a few snow showers possible after midnight. Light snow or a mixture of precipitation in Northwest Wisconsin will transition to flurries and snow showers during the night. Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with winds turning to the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
Thursday and Thursday night (December 17)
Flurries and a few snow showers are expected on Thursday under a mostly cloudy sky. Little if any additional snowfall accumulation is expected tomorrow. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday night with still a chance for some flurries. Highs will be in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Friday through Sunday (December 18-20)
Still can’t rule out a few snow flurries on Friday as low pressure remains centered over Ontario Province. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the teens with lows Friday night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.
Mainly dry on Saturday with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Could be dealing with some light snow or mixed precipitation in parts of the Northland on Sunday as low pressure approaches from the west/southwest. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range – Confidence: Low to Medium.
(December 21-26)
A light snowfall event is possible in parts of the Northland on Monday (21st) Low pressure is forecast to track east/northeast out of the Western High Plains early in the week, if this system comes far enough north then parts of the area could pick up a couple inches of snow on Monday.
A few more opportunities for snow or mixed precipitation from the 23rd-26th as a couple more low pressure systems come out of the Western U.S.
Above average temperatures are forecast from the 21st-26th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing: Until 6 PM CST this evening.
.Tonight… Light snow and flurries. Areas of drizzle and fog mainly this evening. Additional snowfall accumulations of around 1″ or less this evening. Storm total accumulations ranging from 3 to 7″. Low 18 to 23. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 23 to 28. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Thursday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 7 to 12. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 13 to 18.
.Friday night… Partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.
.Saturday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. High 27 to 32.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
High: 22
Low: 7
Sunrise Thursday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:21 PM CST
Tim