/Issued 5:20 PM CST, Sunday, February 21, 2016/
Radar image from 5:15 PM CST.
2015 U.S. tornadoes and state departures map. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Minnesota: 39 tornadoes (-2 below normal)
Wisconsin: 17 tornadoes (-6 below normal)
-Texas had the most tornadoes in 2015 with 239 (+95 above normal)
-Oklahoma, Kansas and Illinois also had an active tornado year in 2015.
U.S. monthly tornado stats for 2015 and 25 year averages. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
*1,152 tornadoes in the U.S. last year (-69 below normal)
*In 2015 the month of December had the greatest number of tornado deaths at 26.
*36 tornado deaths in the U.S. last year, the 25-year average is 79.
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Monday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Lots of ups and downs in the temperature department last week – Duluth finished +4 degrees warmer than normal for the entire week while temperatures were below average last week in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Above average precipitation last week in parts of Northern Minnesota; Below average precipitation in most of Northwest Wisconsin.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
February 14-20, 2016
High temperatures:
2/14: 14 F/-3 degrees below normal
2/15: 27 F/+3 degrees above normal
2/16: 28 F/+4 degrees above normal
2/17: 23 F/-2 degrees below normal
2/18: 33 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/19: 39 F/+14 degrees above normal
2/20: 39 F/+13 degrees above normal
Low temperatures:
2/14: -3 F/-9 degrees below normal
2/15: 14 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/16: 4 F/-2 degrees below normal
2/17: -13 F/-20 degrees below normal
2/18: 16 F/+9 degrees above normal
2/19: 33 F/+26 degrees above normal
2/20: 28 F/+20 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 0.28″
Normal: 0.20″
Departure: +0.08″ above normal
Snowfall report for February 21, 2016
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
11 NNW of Palmers, MN (St. Louis County) 1.7″
2 NNE of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.3″
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.4″ — NWS total thru 4:15 PM today.
1 S of Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″
5 W of Isabella, MN (Lake County) 4.0″
Finland, MN (Lake County) 2.0″
17 NNW of Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 2.3″
2 S of Basswood Lake, MN (Lake County) 3.0″
Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date: February 21, 2016
An interesting setup today with east/northeast winds coming off Lake Superior colliding with more of a northerly wind in Northeast Minnesota — This combination led to an area of convergence which helped to produce an area of light to moderate snow today from Duluth up along the North Shore and Arrowhead and slightly farther west away from Lake Superior, some of this snow also spilled into portions of Douglas and Bayfield Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Sky conditions ranged from mostly sunny across Northern Minnesota to mostly cloudy elsewhere. Highs today were in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 21)
High pressure over Southern Manitoba Province late this afternoon will move southeast and through the Upper Midwest tonight. Snow showers and flurries near Lake Superior will gradually come to an end this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with a chance for some flurries later in the night over Northern Minnesota. Quite a range in low temperatures tonight with single digits and teens below zero where skies clear while cloudier areas remain in the single digits and teens above zero. Winds will be out of the north or east this evening at 5 to 15 mph with light and variable wind direction Overnight.
Monday and Monday night (February 22)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Monday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible in Northern Minnesota thanks to a warm front which will push north across our area. Highs tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday night mainly in the 20s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.
Note: As winds turn to the south this could lead to some lake effect snow on Monday along the North Shore of Lake Superior mainly affecting Cook County and areas northeast of Silver Bay.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (February 23-25)
A light snowfall event is possible on Tuesday as a trough of low pressure passes through the Upper Midwest — About 1-2″ of snow could accumulate on Tuesday in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
The big weather story for mid to late week will be a powerful storm which moves northeast out of the Southern U.S. and into Eastern Canada. Significant amounts of snow and rain will accompany this storm but all of this precipitation will stay well to the southeast of the Northland on Wednesday and Thursday. Note: There could be some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior especially by Wednesday night and Thursday as north winds develop and colder air starts to move in behind that storm to our east.
High temperatures on Tuesday will mainly be in the 30s with lows Tuesday night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday night in the single digits and teens. Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(February 26-March 2)
Near to above average temperatures on the 26th followed by below average temperatures from February 27-29 which will be followed by near to below average temperatures on March 1-2. Note: Long range computer models are starting to come into agreement with an arctic airmass moving into the Northland next Saturday-Sunday (27th-28th) The GFS model has been advertising this arctic blast for several days now, and today the EUROPEAN model is finally on board in what looks like about a two day arctic assault. Record cold possible in the Northland next weekend? It’s possible!
As for snow chances…Not much during the long range outside of a light dusting but lake effect snow will be possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior next weekend.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Light snow gradually ending this evening. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2″. Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible during the night. Low 6 to 11. Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming variable.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday night… Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Light snow possible. High 30 to 35.
.Tuesday night… Light snow or flurries possible mainly early. Low 15 to 20.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
.Wednesday night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 22 to 27.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 26
Low: 9
Sunrise Monday: 7:01 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:43 PM CST
Tim