/Issued 4:40 PM CST, Wednesday, March 9, 2016/
A small area of snow will affect East Central and Northeast Minnesota tonight. Here’s what the 18z HopWRF has for possible snowfall amounts for tonight.
Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CST. Source, WSI.
Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Thursday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
7-day precipitation forecast valid through March 16, 2016. Ongoing heavy/excessive rain event occurring from the Southern Plains toward the Ohio Valley with major flooding occurring in the ArkLaTex. Significant amounts of precipitation over the Northwest/far Western U.S. Another area of heavier precipitation is possible over the Upper Midwest
Tuesday’s system affected Northern Minnesota with a few bands of quarter-half inch rain amounts yesterday. Source, WSI.
Widespread very warm temperatures on Tuesday — Temperature map for March 8, 2016. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Temperature departure map for Meteorological winter December, 2015 – February, 2016. Source, NOAA.
Basically all of the U.S. was warmer than average this winter (Red colors)
Near normal temperatures in the white colored areas.
Precipitation departure map for Meteorological winter December, 2015 – February, 2016. Source, NOAA.
Green=Above average precipitation
Brown=Below average precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation
Rainfall report for March 8, 2016
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
International Falls, MN: 0.10″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.13″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 0.25″
Cook, MN: 0.12″
Embarrass, MN: 0.23″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.11″
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN: 0.76″
Kabetogama, MN: 0.53″
High temperature report for March 8, 2016
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Aitkin, MN: 68 F
McGregor, MN: 66 F
Moose Lake, MN: 68 F
Pine River, MN: 63 F
5 SE of Breezy Point, MN: 65 F
7 ESE of Cloverdale, MN: 70 F
Hinckley, MN: 68 F
Bruno, MN: 65 F
Ashland, WI: 66 F
4 NE of Randall, WI: 71 F
Siren, WI: 70 F
Hayward, WI: 65 F
8 WNW of Minong, WI: 68 F
5 W of Shell Lake, WI: 66 F
U.S. Climate stats for the winter of 2015-2016
Source: NOAA
*The U.S. had a record warm winter in 2015-2016. The average temperature was 36.8 degrees, +4.6 degrees above the 20th century average. The previous warmest winter on record occurred in 1999-2000 with an average temperature of 36.5 degrees.
*4th warmest winter on record in Wisconsin and the 6th warmest in Minnesota.
*46 states across the U.S. had a winter temperature that was above average.
*12th wettest winter on record with 8.05″ of precipitation, +1.26″ above the 20th century average. The winter of 2015-2016 was the wettest since 1997-1998.
*Alaska had its second warmest December-February on record with a statewide temperature of 14.2 degrees, +10.6 degrees above average. Barrow and King Salmon were record warm. Anchorage and Juneau had their 2nd warmest winter on record.
Winter 2015-16 snowfall totals and their departure from average for select cities
Climate normal period: 1981-2010
Note: Above average cities in bold.
Erie, Pennsylvania: 66.7″ (-8.6″ below normal)
Ely, Nevada: 61.6″ (+36.2″ above normal)
Syracuse, New York: 66.0″ (-26.0″ below normal)
Flagstaff, Arizona: 57.1″ (-3.9″ below normal)
Caribou, Maine: 55.9″ (-14.4″ below normal)
Sault St. Marie, Michigan: 55.2″ (-28.3″ below normal)
Duluth, Minnesota: 49.8″ (+0.3″ above normal)
Elkins, West Virginia: 47.7″ (-12.2″ below normal)
Buffalo, New York: 47.1″ (-22.9″ below normal)
Casper, Wyoming: 45.4″ (+15.5″ above normal)
New York City (JFK AP), New York: 39.5″ (+20.2″ above normal)
Sioux Falls, South Dakota: 39.0″ (+16.2″ above normal)
Green Bay, Wisconsin: 33.6″ (-2.4″ below normal)
Washington (Dulles), DC: 33.0″ (+14.6″ above normal)
Norfolk, Nebraska: 32.2″ (+14.3″ above normal)
International Falls, Minnesota: 29.7″ (-11.1″ below normal)
Burlington, Vermont: 28.8″ (-26.6″ below normal)
Yakima, Washington: 28.4″ (+11.1″ above normal)
Nome, Alaska: 24.1″ (-15.3″ below normal)
Aberdeen, South Dakota: 22.3″ (+2.2″ above normal)
Milwaukee, Wisconsin: 22.2″ (-12.9″ below normal)
Fairbanks, Alaska: 2.5″ (-28.0″ below normal)
Albany, New York: 10.3″ (-33.4″ below normal)
Nashville, Tennessee: 11.3″ (+5.9″ above normal)
Chicago, Illinois: 16.3″ (-11.8″ below normal)
Juneau, Alaska: 18.3″ (-41.8″ below normal)
Bismarck, North Dakota: 18.8″ (-7.5″ below normal)
*Record events for March 8, 2016*
Source, National Weather Service
Twin Cities, Minnesota:
Record high temperature
New record: 70 degrees
Old record: 69 degrees set in 2000
Note: High temperature of 70 F on March 8th was the 3rd earliest 70 on record, and a 70 degree or warmer high temperature during the first 15 days of March has only occurred on 5 days in the past 144 years.
St. Cloud, Minnesota:
Record high temperature
New record: 66 degrees
Old record: 62 degrees set in 2000
***Additional storm reports from March 8, 2016***
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*8:37 AM CST: 1 SSW of Buhl, MN (St. Louis County) HAIL. 1.50″.
*4:36 AM CST: 1 NNW of Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County) HAIL. 1.25″.
Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date: March 9, 2016
Back to reality, at least for today. A rather interesting weather day in the Northland with a few different areas of precipitation. First was an area of drizzle and light rain which pushed southwest off Lake Superior during the morning, the second area of precipitation has been more intense but is only occurring in a rather small area extending from Brainerd and Cross Lake toward Remer and Hill City and south to Aitkin and McGregor — That area of precipitation was forming near an upper level disturbance which is moving northeast out of Western Minnesota this afternoon, strong winds aloft of 140+ knots was found just east of Minnesota late today which is probably helping produce this narrow but locally heavy area of precipitation this afternoon.
Afternoon 850mb temperatures are down to around -2C underneath that area of precipitation with surface temperatures close to the freezing mark so a lot of this precipitation has been in the form of snow or a rain/snow mix. Highs today were in the 30s with a few locations in Northwest Wisconsin around 40 degrees. Winds today were out of the east, north or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tonight (March 9)
A narrow band of snow which could be mixed with rain or drizzle will persist this evening in parts of East Central Minnesota and possibly extending into extreme Northwest Wisconsin. The rest of the Northland will have generally mostly cloudy skies. Areas of fog will also carry over into tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Not much wind with generally a variable wind direction at less than 15 mph.
Thursday and Thursday night (March 10)
High pressure moves over the Upper Midwest tomorrow and exits to the east tomorrow night while a warm front lifts northeast out of the Northern Plains. A mix of sun and clouds for Thursday with highs in the 30s and 40s. Partly cloudy skies Thursday night with lows in the 20s and 30s. West or northwest winds tomorrow at 10 to 15 mph gradually turning to the south tomorrow night.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Friday through Sunday (March 11-13)
Dry and unseasonably mild Friday and Saturday; Rain chances for Sunday.
High temperatures Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior both days, lows Friday night and Saturday night will be in the 30s and 40s.
A frontal boundary moving into the Upper Midwest during the weekend will combine with moisture and low pressure moving northeast out of the Southern Plains to produce some rain in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low to Medium.
(March 14-19)
Rain showers are possible on Monday (14th) A larger storm could develop and affect the Northland during the 15th-17th time frame with possible rain, maybe some wind and snow. Above average temperatures will continue from the 14th-16th with near normal temperatures from the 17th-19th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Wet snow developing this evening then ending late. Light rain or drizzle with areas of fog also possible. Total snowfall accumulations of around 1″. Mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 41 to 46. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind becoming south around 10 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 53 to 58.
.Friday night… Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Saturday night… Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Sunday… Rain possible. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
High: 32
Low: 15
Sunrise Thursday: 6:30 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 6:08 PM CST
Tim