Snow tonight (Heaviest amounts north of Duluth) Warnings and Advisories in effect in parts of the Northland

/Issued 4:49 PM CST, Friday, December 30, 2016/

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/

Radar loop through 4:15 PM CST.  Source:  AccuWeather.com

Updated winter weather headlines; Snowfall accumulation map.

Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory

The heaviest snowfall amounts tonight are expected to remain north/northeast of Duluth.  I’m thinking will get about 1-2″ of snow in the Twin Ports tonight.

More information on the various headlines at the following links

Winter Storm Warning http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Winter Weather Advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Link to Minnesota road conditions http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Still keeping an eye on next Monday and Tuesday, this is when we could get our next decent snow event in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Still quite a bit of model disagreement though so stay tuned for new updates over the weekend.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Weather Synopsis:

An area of low pressure has moved into northeast North Dakota this afternoon with strong 12-hour 500mb height falls 90-150 meters covering the northern Plains per mesoanalysis.  A strong thermal gradient is in place for today’s clipper with late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from +5 C in far southwest Minnesota to -12 C in far northeast Minnesota.  3 PM temperatures ranged from the 50s and lower 60s in central Nebraska to the teens across northern Minnesota.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning across the Northland gave way to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with some snow affecting portions of the area as low pressure approaches from the northwest.

*Light snow tonight as low pressure tracks from eastern North Dakota to north of Green Bay, Wisconsin by daybreak.  Winds to the north of this low will be out of the east for most of the night, this will result in some lake enhanced snow tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows will range from the single digits below zero in far northern Minnesota with teens in northwest Wisconsin and around Lake Superior.

*Tonight’s clipper will head into eastern Canada on Saturday — Lingering snow showers and flurries are possible early in the morning otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day.  A cold front approaching from the northwest could cause some snow showers Saturday night mainly in northern Minnesota.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Occasional light snow.  Total snowfall accumulation of 1-2″.  Low 11 to 16.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest after midnight.

.Saturday…  Flurries possible early otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High 16 to 20.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Saturday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:30 PM CST

Tim

Snow returns late Friday afternoon/night (Couple inches) More snow next Mon-Tue; Arctic air to follow

/Issued 5:18 PM CST, Thursday, December 29, 2016/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Blue on the two maps below=Snow

Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for Friday PM-early Saturday AM.  Note:  I may have to adjust the 3-5″ and 1-2″ zones a little bit more to the south by later this evening or tomorrow morning as the computer models have trended slightly more to the south with the track of Friday’s clipper.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Friday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/












Lake Effect Snow Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM CST Friday for Iron county in northwest Wisconsin.  More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20advisory











Weather Synopsis:

Low pressure moved into eastern Canada today but a cyclonic flow on the backside of this low combined with some upper level disturbances rotating south/east across the upper Midwest kept snow showers and flurries going over the Northland today along with mostly cloudy skies although there have been a few peeks for sun every now and then.  Highs were in the 20s so not very cold as we get toward the end of the month.  West or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts did put a little chill in the air though despite the relatively ‘mild’ late December temperatures.

*Snow showers and flurries continue in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this evening with accumulations less than 1″.  Mostly cloudy skies with some clearing expected to develop as the night wears on as high pressure exerts its muscle into the Northland.  Lows tonight will be in the single digits below zero to around 10 above.

*Some sunshine is possible Friday morning but clouds will be on the increase as low pressure approaches from the northwest — Snow will spread into western portions of the Northland Friday afternoon, the snow will then push farther south/east and should cover most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by early Friday evening.  Snow ratios are forecast to be in the 10:1 to around 20:1 range with this event so generally a fluffy snowfall is expected.  Highs on Friday will be in the teens and 20s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Snow showers and flurries during the evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday…  Some sunshine possible in the morning followed by increasing cloudiness.  Light snow developing mainly after 4 PM.  High 16 to 21.  Wind west around 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

.Friday night…  Light snow.  Total event accumulation of 1-2″.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Friday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim

Snow showers and flurries linger into Thursday; Clipper (Light snow) late Fri-early Sat

/Issued 5:10 PM CST, Wednesday, December 28, 2016/

A clipper system looks like it will pass through the Northland late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.  A swath of 1-4″ of snow is expected in our area as this low pressure system moves through.  Note:  The greatest snow totals should fall north of Duluth the way it looks now.  The track of this clipper could change a bit before Friday, and the 2-4″ snow area may need to be adjusted a little more south or north depending on the track of the low.

Here’s a look at today’s system which brought some snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Source:  Water Vapor Satellite Imagery; http://weather.cod.edu/

Lake effect snow showers are expected to develop on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior affecting Iron County where a Lake Effect Snow Advisory is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning — More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20advisory

After the late week clipper, attention will then be drawn to our west and southwest as that is where our next system could be coming from for early next week.  Still some model differences with this one so stay tuned.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Thursday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/


Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*17 days so far this month with at least 0.1″ of snow — The average for December is 13 days.  Only 4 days this month without any measurable snowfall (Trace or more)

*Snowfall total is up to 19.5″ this month (Thru 4 PM, Dec 28)  +3.7″ above normal

*Annual snowfall total is at 27.6″; -4.3″ below normal

Weather Synopsis:

A fairly strong upper level disturbance moved across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today, this disturbance combined with a warm front and cold front which also moved into the upper Midwest generated enough lift in the atmosphere to produce widespread snow showers today.  Snowfall amounts have generally been around 1″ or less but a few locations up north have picked up around 2.0″-2.5″ of new snow today.  Warmer temperatures moved into the area today with highs in the mid to upper 20s with low to mid 30s stretching from Longville to Hinckley to Siren and southwest from there.

*Snow showers and flurries will linger across the Northland tonight with snowfall amounts generally less than 1″.  Strong height falls of 120-150 meters/12 hours accompanying today’s system will exit off to the east during the night but additional energy approaching from the NW should keep some snow showers going early this evening, and then again overnight.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s.

*A few snow showers and flurries will continue in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Thursday otherwise expect mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with highs mainly in the 20s.  Gusty west or northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries early, and then again after midnight.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1″.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Considerable cloudiness and breezy.  A few snow showers or flurries.  High 20 to 25.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Thursday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim

Milder temperatures return Wednesday (Highs in the 20s to around 30) Snow showers/flurries late tonight-Thu; More snow chances Fri PM-Sat AM

/Issued 4:49 PM CST, Tuesday, December 27, 2016/

Still keeping an eye on a clipper for late this week; Based on the current track there should be some light snow in most of the Northland with accumulations generally in the 1-3″ range in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

December 18-24, 2016

High temperatures:

12/18:  -4 F/-25 degrees below average
12/19:  23 F/+2 degrees above average
12/20:  36 F/+15 degrees above average
12/21:  33 F/+12 degrees above average
12/22:  39 F/+19 degrees above average
12/23:  36 F/+16 degrees above average
12/24:  33 F/+13 degrees above average

Low temperatures:

12/18:  -21 F/-27 degrees below average
12/19:  -9 F/-15 degrees below average
12/20:  21 F/+15 degrees above average
12/21:  18 F/+13 degrees above average
12/22:  19 F/+14 degrees above average
12/23:  25 F/+20 degrees above average
12/24:  20 F/+16 degrees above average

Total precipitation:  0.02″
Normal:  0.26″
Departure:  -0.24″ below average

Weather Summary

*Chilly day across the Northland; Highs generally in the upper single digits to the middle teens which is 5-10 degrees below average.  Clouds and a few flurries this morning did give way to quite a bit of afternoon sunshine except over the Bayfield Peninsula where lake effect clouds/snow showers occurred through the day.

*Clouds will be on the increase later tonight with some light snow or flurries developing in northern Minnesota.  Lows in the single digits below to teens above zero.

*Mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday.  Snow showers and flurries especially in northern Minnesota where up to 1″ of accumulation is possible.  Note:  The Arrowhead and North Shore could get up to 2″ of snow tomorrow thanks to a southerly wind coming off Lake Superior which may lead to a bit of lake enhanced/lake effect snowfall especially northeast of Two Harbors.

*A warm front will pass through the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Wednesday — Milder temperatures will return to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with highs Wednesday in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Clear this evening, increasing cloudiness late.  Low 5 to 10 with slowing rising temperatures overnight.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph becoming south.

.Wednesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Milder.  High 26 to 31.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

Duluth climate normals for Wednesday

High:  20
Low:     3

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim

Recap of the powerful Christmas storm; Snowfall and storm reports in this post. Keeping an eye on a late week clipper, and possibly a bigger storm for early next week

/Issued 7:52 PM CST, Monday, December 26, 2016/

The next chance for a potentially significant amount of snow looks to be early next week, around the 2nd-3rd, of course with it being about a week away the storm track and snow area will probably shift around a bit in coming days.

Looks like will be dealing with some arctic air (Subzero temperatures) by the middle of next week, until then temperatures don’t look terribly cold as we close out the month of December on Saturday.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Peak wind gusts around Minnesota during the past 24 hours
Source:  National Weather Service Sioux Falls, SD; Duluth, MN

Marshall:  74 mph
Jeffers 4 ENE:  71 mph
Worthington:  68 mph
Redwood Falls:  66 mph
Slayton:  64 mph
Tracy:  60 mph
Windom:  60 mph
Duluth Airport:  51 mph

Temperatures took a nose dive in Duluth today

6 AM:  38 F
12 PM:  20 F

Note:  The temperature of 38 degrees at 6 AM was within 5 degrees of the record high temperature of 43 degrees for December 26th (This record was set just a few years ago in 2011)

Local Storm Reports for December 25-26
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

*7:45 AM CST 12/26/16 — Lakeside, WI 3 WSW (Douglas County)  Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage.  Tall spruce tree blown down.

*10:00 PM CST 12/25/16 — Walker, MN (Cass County)  Ice Storm.  Lots of trees and power lines down mainly across southern portions of the county.

*7:40 PM CST 12/25/16 — Silver Bay, MN 1 SE (Lake County)  Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust.  42 mph.

*10:30 PM CST 12/25/16 — Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)  Freezing Rain.  0.15 inch

*4:25 PM CST 12/25/16 — Phillips, WI 3 W (Price County)  Freezing Rain.  0.13 inch

*9:00 PM CST 12/25/16 — Sand Bay, WI 13 NE (Ashland County)  Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust.  51 mph.  Buoy station Devils Island.

*10:00 PM CST 12/25/16 — Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  Ice Storm.  Lots of trees down throughout Crow Wing County due to ice.

*9:15 PM CST 12/25/16 — Brainerd, MN 1 ENE (Crow Wing County)  Freezing Rain.  0.30 inch.

*10:00 PM CST 12/25/16 — Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)  Ice Storm.  Lots of tree damage throughout the county.

Snowfall totals for December 25-26, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Silver Bay, MN:  5.1″
Lutsen, MN 3 ENE:  4.5″
Wolf Ridge, MN:  4.2″
Isabella, MN 14 W:  4.0″
Grand Marais, MN 4 W:  4.0″
Grand Marais, MN 21 N:  3.0″
Arnold, MN 4 NW:  3.0″
Togo, MN:  2.0″
Embarrass, MN:  2.0″

Summary of the Christmas storm 2016

A powerful area of low pressure tracked northeast out of Colorado and into western Minnesota between Sunday morning and Monday morning, December 25-26 — This storm brought widespread strong winds to the northern Plains and upper Midwest with wind gusts of 40-70+ mph reported in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota.

A blizzard hit portions of the Dakotas with major interstates shut down due to the dangerous winter weather conditions.

This storm brought a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning with a few inches of sleet accumulation and some snow accumulation farther north.

A significant ice storm affected portions of east central Minnesota, especially around the Brainerd Lakes area.

Overall I think the forecast impacts of this storm went well, however, I thought there’d be a little more snow than there was Sunday evening,  but sleet and freezing rain ended up being the main precipitation type which cut back on the snow totals especially around the Duluth area.

This week’s weather for the Northland

*Lingering snow showers and flurries with gusty winds tonight.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will persist along with fair to poor driving conditions as roads remain snow, ice and slush covered in some parts of the area.

*Could get some breaks in the clouds late tonight and Tuesday.

*Occasional flurries/snow showers Wednesday and Thursday, not expecting much snow with this event, maybe a dusting to an inch at most.

*Clipper could affect us Friday or Saturday, if it takes a favorable track, then there could be a swath of about 1-3″ of snow for some parts of the area.

Duluth climate normals for Tuesday

High:  20
Low:     4

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:27 PM CST

Tim