Gusty NE wind lingers tonight near Lake Superior. Clouds Fri AM with some sun Fri PM; Keeping an eye on weekend shower chances

/Issued 5:51 PM CDT, Thursday, March 30, 2017/

Here’s future radar for Saturday morning at 6 AM (Timing and location of these showers subject to change) Source, 18z 3km NAM; http://models.weatherbell.com

Source:  20z HRRR model; http://www.pivotalweather.com

Source:  18z NAM; http://www.pivotalweather.com

Lightning strike density map from March 28 through March 30 (ending at 4:45 PM CT)  Source http://models.weatherbell.com/

Note:  A lot of lightning the past few days with the brighter colors representing a greater number of lightning strikes.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Lots of sun today across northern Minnesota with highs getting into the 50s.  Skies were generally mostly cloudy from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 40s.  It was cooler near Lake Superior with highs generally in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees along with a brisk wind out of the east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Low pressure which was over west central Illinois late this afternoon will track slowly east/northeast reaching far northern Ohio by Friday afternoon, all of the precipitation with this system will remain southeast of the Northland tonight and Friday, but that low combined with strong high pressure near Hudson Bay Canada will continue to result in a tight pressure gradient leading to gusty NE winds near Lake Superior through Friday morning.

Lows tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s but teens are possible in far northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday getting back into the mid 40s to mid 50s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area Friday night-Saturday morning, a few showers could accompany this frontal passage but no widespread or significant rains are expected.

There is another chance for rain showers sometime Sunday or early Monday morning as another cold front moves through the upper Midwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 34.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible in the afternoon.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  41
Low:   24

Sunrise Friday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim

Gusty NE wind into Thursday; Cooler near the lake, milder temps inland (Typical early spring weather)

/Issued 5:27 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 29, 2017/

A nice looking storm showing up on Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery today.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Severe weather chances continue for the next couple of days.

Tonight’s risk:  enhanced (orange) and slight (yellow)

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu

Thursday’s risk increases to a moderate (red) enhanced and slight in orange and yellow respectively.

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu

It’s been an active stretch for severe weather since March 23rd but yesterday saw the most tornado reports (thus far) over a dozen.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Thursday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was over the southeast half of Kansas late this afternoon with high pressure of 1032mb over southern Hudson Bay — Low to our south, high to our north is a perfect recipe for strong east winds near Lake Superior, and today certainly had gusty easterly winds in the 15 to 30 mph range.  It was also much cooler near Lake Superior today thanks to the stronger lake breeze and also due to the cloud cover, highs near the lake were in mid 30s but away from Lake Superior highs made it into mid 40s to mid 50s (above average for late March)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland through Friday.  As low pressure pulls out of southern Kansas tonight it could bring a little bit of rain or a rain/snow mix to far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin through Thursday but this shouldn’t be a very big deal, otherwise our area will remain dry through Friday.

Lows tonight and Thursday night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Thursday and Friday in the 40s and 50s except for the usual cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  40
Low:   23

Sunrise Thursday:  6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim

A stronger lake breeze/cooler temperatures near Lake Superior Wed-Fri, still mild farther inland from the big lake!

/Issued 5:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 28, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Note:  The threat for severe thunderstorms continues across parts of the southern U.S. for the next several days.

Tonight’s risk is as high as moderate (red shaded area on map)

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu

Another day with an enhanced (orange) and slight (yellow) risk of severe thunderstorms ahead for Wednesday.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Number of days with at least 1.0″ snow depth at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport)

2016-2017:  120 days (so far)
2015-2016:  123 days
2014-2015:  125 days
2013-2014:  148 days

Average is 133 days

Note:  Have to go back a few years to 2013-14 for an above average total, the last couple of years have had fewer days compared to average with a snow depth of at least one inch.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin

Very nice weather continued today with high temperatures getting well into the 50s with even a few lower 60s in parts of the Northland, the only cool spot was near the immediate shore of Lake Superior with highs generally in the 40s today but even this is a little above average for late March.  High pressure remained in control of our weather today with this ridge extending from Ontario Province south to the central Great Lakes.  Skies were sunny to partly sunny today with a bit more clouds at times this afternoon in parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

A pretty quiet weather pattern continues across the Northland for the next few days.  High pressure remains to our north while low pressure now over the southern Plains tracks east/northeast into southern Missouri by Thursday PM.  Mainly dry in our area through Thursday.  A stronger lake breeze is expected Wednesday and Thursday so afternoon temperatures near Lake Superior will be in the mid 30s to low 40s while inland locations remain in the 40s and 50s for daytime highs tomorrow and Thursday.  Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Breezy and cooler.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  40
Low:   23

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim

Crappy weather continues tonight (Fog, lingering drizzle) A ‘little’ nicer Mon-Tue. Rainfall reports from today in this post

/Issued 5:10 PM CDT, Sunday, March 26, 2017/

7-day precipitation forecast valid through Sunday, April 2, 2017.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

20z HRRR model visibility forecast valid for Monday morning.  Areas of fog are expected in the Northland tonight into Monday morning with visibility reduced to a mile or less in some areas.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Moderate (Red) Enhanced (Orange) and Slight risks (Yellow) of severe thunderstorms tonight stretching from far southern Kansas to portions of north Texas.

Today’s setup over the southern Plains per early Sunday afternoon Goes-16 water vapor satellite image.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Temperature departure map for the week of March 19, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Precipitation departure map for the week of March 19, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

March 19-25, 2017

High temperatures:

3/19:  43 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/20:  51 F/+15 degrees above normal
3/21:  37 F/+1 degree above normal
3/22:  33 F/-4 degrees below normal
3/23:  36 F/-1 degree below normal
3/24:  38 F/Normal
3/25:  35 F/-3 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

3/19:  24 F/+5 degrees above normal
3/20:  34 F/+15 degrees above normal
3/21:  16 F/-4 degrees below normal
3/22:  11 F/-9 degrees below normal
3/23:  28 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/24:  33 F/+12 degrees above normal
3/25:  30 F/+9 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.23″
Normal:  0.36″
Departure:  -0.13″ below normal

Precipitation reports from today, March 26, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Grand Marais, MN:  0.20″
Siren, WI:  0.18″
Washburn, WI:  0.13″
Ashland, WI:  0.12″
Isabella, MN:  0.10″
Clam Lake, WI:  0.08″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.07″
Hayward, WI:  0.06″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.06″
Solon Springs, WI:  0.04″
Superior, WI:  0.03″

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin

Damp and drizzly weather to close out the weekend.  Low pressure averaging 1010mb was along the Wisconsin-Illinois state line at 4 PM today — This system brought a narrow band of drizzle and light rain to parts of northwest Wisconsin, far eastern Minnesota and along the North Shore.  Earlier this morning there were also reports of some freezing drizzle or freezing rain but temperatures warmed up enough by mid morning which ended any threat of freezing rain.  Highs today were generally in the mid 30s to low 40s with a few mid 40s in far northern Minnesota where there has been some breaks in the clouds today.

Mostly cloudy skies continue tonight with areas of drizzle/light rain in far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin gradually ending during the night as low pressure heads northeast into Lake Huron.  A cold front passes through the Northland Monday and then washes out as high pressure builds into the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region.

Should see a bit more sun tomorrow and Tuesday compared to the last few days but there will also be some lingering cloud cover.

Low temperatures tonight and Monday night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 40s and 50s but cooler temperatures are expected near Lake Superior.

Note:  No big storms, soaking rains or winter storms affecting the Northland through the next 7 days.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog.  Lingering drizzle especially this evening.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Patchy fog possible early.  Mostly cloudy.  Some sun possible during the afternoon.  High 41 to 45.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  39
Low:   22

Sunrise Monday:  6:57 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:32 PM CDT

Tim

Gusty E-NE winds with chilly temperatures this weekend near Lake Superior. Some light rain, sleet or freezing rain possible in parts of the Northland Saturday evening-Sunday

/Issued 5:07 PM CDT, Friday, March 24, 2017/

A very cool water vapor satellite loop from this afternoon showing a classic looking spring storm churning across the southern/central Plains.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  https://www.lightningmaps.org

Warnings map from Thursday, March 23, 2017.  Source:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/yest.html

Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning

No tornadoes reported on Thursday but there were quite a few reports of large hail (Green dots) and damaging winds (Blue dots.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

*Local Storm Reports from March 23, 2017*
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*10:42 PM CDT:  FREEZING RAIN.  0.01″.  Mahtowa, MN 3 N (Carlton County)

*8:40 PM CDT:  FREEZING RAIN.  0.01″.  Lester Park, MN 2 SSW (St. Louis County)  Ice glazing on sidewalks and railings across the neighborhood.

*8:25 PM CDT:  FREEZING RAIN.  0.01″.  Proctor, MN 1 NNE (St. Louis County)

*7:33 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25″.  Floodwood, MN (St. Louis County)  Estimated size about 1/8″ covering ground.  Roads slick.

*6:34 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25″.  Blackberry, MN 1 WSW (Itasca County)

Snowfall reports from March 23-24, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Grand Marais, MN 4 W:  2.1″
Snow Bank Lake, MN 6 SW:  1.6″
Lutsen, MN 3 WSW:  1.6″
Lutsen, MN 4 ENE:  1.5″
Sea Gull Lake, MN 4 NE:  1.2″
Ely, MN 1 SSW:  1.0″

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures were close to normal today with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.  Widespread clouds with areas of drizzle and fog over the Northland today in wake of last night’s rain and wintry mix of precipitation.

A continuation of mostly cloudy skies are expected this weekend in northwest Wisconsin and also around Lake Superior but in northern Minnesota there could be some breaks in the clouds at times from tonight through Sunday.

Patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow flurries could develop tonight and Saturday near Lake Superior.

A chance for some light rain, sleet or freezing rain in far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Saturday evening through Sunday as low pressure currently over the southern Plains lifts northeast into the central/eastern Great Lakes by Sunday — Whatever type of precipitation falls shouldn’t amount to very much but it only takes a small amount of freezing rain to cause trouble on the roads.

Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the 20s and 30s with teens possible tonight in far northeast Minnesota.  Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 40s with chillier 30s near Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog, drizzle, freezing drizzle or flurries.  Low 28 to 31.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Saturday…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle or flurries possible.  High 31 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  38
Low:   21

Sunrise Saturday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:28 PM CDT

Tim