Here’s my snowfall forecast through Saturday
Note: I’m going a little on the high side for snowfall amounts along the North Shore as often times with these lake effect events things get out of hand, and I have a feeling this could be the case late tonight into Saturday over a small area along the North Shore, but there is also a chance that I’m too high with my snowfall amounts, but with lake effect snow it’s usually better to play it safe and go on the high side with snow totals.
•4-8 inches along the North Shore, generally from near Two Harbors to Silver Bay to Little Marais.
•2-4 inches farther northeast (Arrowhead region)
•Around 1 to 2 inches for Duluth
•Brisk east winds near Lake Superior tonight and Saturday, 10 to 20 mph, gusts 25 to 35 mph
•Road conditions and visibilities will change drastically in lake effect snow bands, sometimes only a few miles can separate very little snow, good visibility/driving conditions, to heavy snow, gusty winds, poor visibility/driving conditions. Keep that in mind if you have travel plans to the North Shore of Lake Superior tonight or Saturday.
•Snowfall amounts could vary significantly in a short distance, from trace amounts to several inches!
•This lake effect event still looks like it will impact the North Shore the most with favorable wind direction out of the east. It looks less favorable for a lot of snow in the Twin Ports area as we need more of an E-NE wind direction to get lake effect snow in Duluth, but on Saturday winds will mainly be out of the east, although there could be a few hours Saturday morning where we get an E-NE wind, and it’s during that time where we’d get some accumulating snow in Duluth, otherwise the snow should remain mostly NE of Duluth on Saturday.
Note: Could see the advisory extended beyond 10 AM Saturday for Lake County, and could also see an upgrade from an advisory to a warning along parts of the North Shore depending on how things setup later tonight-Saturday morning.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 1-11-19
Simulated radar forecast from 8 PM this Friday evening to 8 PM Saturday.
Note: If we get some snow in Duluth it looks to fall late tonight into Saturday morning. Snow would end from S-N across the city before Noon Saturday. Otherwise expect brisk easterly winds from 10 to 20 mph, gusts to around 30 mph tonight and Saturday.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Already have a 10-14 degree temperature difference over Lake Superior between the surface and 850mb, and that should remain the case through Saturday. Typically anything above a 10 degree difference between the surface-850mb is enough to generate lake effect snow during the winter.
Source: https://www.ecmwf.int
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 1-11-19
The other big weather story around here besides the lake effect snow tonight and Saturday is the potential flip in the weather pattern starting mid to late next week, it’s a pattern that could lock in for several weeks, not just a day or two.
Note: Lows across the area tonight will range from around zero along the Minnesota-Ontario border to the teens and 20s elsewhere. Highs Saturday will be in the 20s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 12
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Saturday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:43 PM CST
Tim