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Warm and mainly dry Tuesday; mild temps continue mid to late week with scattered showers/t-storms

/Issued 5:16 PM CDT, Monday, July 1, 2019/

Additional Storm Reports from June 30, 2019
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

•4:45 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 1 NE Askov, MN (Pine County)  Four birch trees were uprooted.

•4:45 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 2 NE Askov, MN (Pine County)  A tree with grapefruit-sized trunk snapped about 2 feet from the ground and fell over.

•4:15 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust — 62 mph.  2 E Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)

Source:  https://www.weather.gov

Source:  https://www.pivotalweather.com/

It’s been a very wet and stormy last 24 hours across southern Minnesota with multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms producing torrential rain, hail, strong winds and even isolated tornadoes.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 infrared satellite loop from July 1, 2019.

Kaboom! Watch the explosion of thunderstorms in southern Minnesota this afternoon with the yellow, orange and red colors on the map below indicating colder cloud tops, deep convection.

Flash Flood Watch in effect through late tonight-Tuesday morning (green outlined area on the map below)

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, July 2.

Lows tonight ranging from around 50 to 60 degrees across the Northland, overall a very pleasant night.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, July 2, 2019.

Another warm day ahead on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.  Doesn’t look as humid Tuesday as what we’ve dealt with over the last few days with dew points Tuesday generally in the 50s to lower 60s.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly in far northern portions of Minnesota Tuesday afternoon/evening but most of the area should stay dry Tuesday.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model 7-1-2019

Radar forecast valid from Noon Tuesday to 10 PM Tuesday.

A few spotty showers and maybe a thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon/evening mainly over far northern portions of Minnesota.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 7-1-2019

Temperature anomaly forecast valid through July 17, 2019.

A cooler pattern appears to be setting up per model data as we get into the second week of July.  Watch how the orange and red colors (above normal temps) on the map below change to blue colors (below normal temps) as we move forward in time.  Not looking at any major cold snap by any means, and definitely no threat for frost around here either through mid July, but temps trending toward normal or a little below normal after we get through this week.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model 7-1-2019

500mb anomaly forecast valid through July 17, 2019. 

The reason for the cool down, winds aloft shift from southwest to northwest while the upper level ridge retrogrades from the southern U.S. toward the southwest U.S. by next week.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

June 23-29, 2019

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

6/23:  60 F/-13 degrees below normal
6/24:  73 F/Normal
6/25:  77 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/26:  86 F/+12 degrees above normal
6/27:  80 F/+6 degrees above normal
6/28:  82 F/+8 degrees above normal
6/29:  87 F/+13 degrees above normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

6/23:  53 F/+1 degree above normal
6/24:  54 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/25:  55 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/26:  56 F+4 degrees above normal
6/27:  62 F/+9 degrees above normal
6/28:  57 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/29:  58 F/+5 degrees above normal

Average temperature for the week of June 23:  67.1 degrees (+4.1 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.46 inches
Normal:  1.08 inches
Departure:  +0.38 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of June 23, 2019
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Average temperature:  68.0 degrees
Departure:  -0.4 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  1.59 inches
Departure:  +0.57 inches above normal

July Climate Averages for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  65.9 degrees
Precipitation:  3.85 inches

Normal high on the 1st:  75 degrees
Normal high on the 31st:  77 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  54 degrees
Normal low on the 31st:  56 degrees

July Records

Warmest:  71.9 degrees set in 2006
Coldest:  59.4 degrees set in 1992

Wettest:  10.83 inches set in 1909
Driest:  0.47 inches set in 1875

Average number of 80 degree days:  11

Astronomical Data for July

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  5:47 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  9:07 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  8:41 PM CDT

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable.

.Tuesday…  Warm.  Partly cloudy.  High 81 to 86.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Wind southwest 10 to 15 mph becoming east later in the day.

Normal temperatures for July 2

High:   75
Low:    54

July 2 Sunrise:  5:19 AM CDT
July 2 Sunset:   9:06 PM CDT

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