Areas of freezing fog and mist tonight; mild weekend ahead; windy on Sunday

This weekend continues to look mild, but I think record warmth is unlikely on Sunday (February 2nd) given a few things which I will get into a little further down in this post.

First for Saturday, should have widespread 30 to 35 degree high temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. I can’t guarantee will see a whole lot of sun though.

Source region for this weekend’s warmth is currently over the Northern Rockies and will spread farther south/east through Sunday morning.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Sunday does look windy as will have very strong winds aloft (~5,000 feet) of 45 to 65 knots covering the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, some of this will mix down to the surface resulting in 20 to 40 mph wind gusts across the Northland.

Source: 21z RAP model 1.31.20; https://weather.cod.edu/

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Here are the climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota for the month of February, and by the way February is the last month of Meteorological winter which consists of the months of December, January and February. It’s all uphill from here, right?

Normal high on the 1st: 20F
Normal high on the 29th: 29F

Normal low on the 1st: 2F
Normal low on the 29th: 11F

Precipitation: 0.81″
Snowfall: 12.4″

Records for February

Warmest: 31.3 degrees set in 1877
Coldest: -2.1 degrees set in 1875

Wettest: 4.24″ set in 1922
Driest: 0.10″ set in 1877

Snowiest: 36.4″ set in 2019
Least snowiest: 2.1″ set in 1896

On average, 11 days in February have a subzero low temperature.

On average, 6 days in February have a high temperature of 32 degrees or warmer.

10 days have at least 0.1″ snowfall.
4 days have at least 1.0″ snowfall.

Note: 5 of the top 10 snowiest Februaries on record in Duluth have occurred since 2000, records for Duluth go back to 1875.

Astronomical Data for Duluth for February

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:34 AM CST
Sunrise on the 29th: 6:48 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st: 5:11 PM CST
Sunset on the 29th: 5:53 PM CST

Monthly outlooks much like seasonal outlooks are always a crap shoot, but here is the forecast for February 2020 per CFS model. Note: Don’t bet the house on this forecast being right.

Orange/Red colors=Above normal temperatures

Blue colors=Below normal temperatures

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Green colors=Above normal precipitation

Yellow/Brown colors=Below normal precipitation

Still dealing with widespread low clouds in the Northland today, but just like in previous days, we have seen a few brief breaks in the low clouds which has allowed for a tiny bit of sunshine, but overall it continues to be quite gloomy around here with the lack of sun.

Source: Goes-16 visible satellite loop 1.31.20; https://weather.cod.edu/

Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning, February 1, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Saturday, February 1, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Mostly cloudy skies will continue tonight with areas of fog, haze and freezing mist. Lows will be on the mild side for this time of the year ranging from the teens to the upper 20s with winds out of the southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Given how persistent the clouds have been for about a week, I don’t have much confidence will see much clearing on Saturday, but maybe will get a little more sun compared to what we’ve seen lately, will just have to wait and see. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s with southwest or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

This leads us to Sunday which still looks mild, but probably not as warm as what I was hoping for 24-hours ago. One of the issues I’m seeing is the warmest air moves over the Northland early in the day when 850mb temperatures peak in the +2 to +6C range, then will start to get into some cold air advection before Noon Sunday thanks to a fast moving cold front which is forecast to move through the area Sunday morning, so instead of seeing highs in the 42 to around 50 degree range on Sunday, it’s looking more likely will have highs somewhere in the 37 to 45 degree range which will still feel nice, but just a little cooler than what I was forecasting on Thursday. The deep snow pack we have right now doesn’t help either if you want real warm temperatures.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy, hazy. Areas of fog and freezing mist. Flurries also possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Mostly cloudy (partial clearing possible at times) Patchy fog and haze. Freezing mist early. High 32 to 37. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday… Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Record high for February 2nd is 47 degrees set in 1991. Wind west 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for February 1

High 20
Low 2

Sunrise Saturday 7:34 AM CST
Sunset Saturday 5:11 PM CST

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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