A cold front will move slowly east out of western Minnesota through tonight. A warm and humid air mass is in place ahead of the cold front while drier air was found behind the cold front.
As the cold front moves east it will interact with the warm and humid air, while lift increases due to the approaching cold front, and also from areas of low pressure which will ride N-NE along the cold front, all of this should lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon through tonight from northeast and eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
Here’s a look at how things could play out later today per 12z HRRR model run.
Note: The main time frame for stronger thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin looks to be from around 5 PM to 10 PM today.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
No shortage of atmospheric moisture today as dew points are in the muggy 60s while PWATS (precipitable water) range from 1.30 to 1.80″. Note: There will be torrential downpours where thunderstorms occur through tonight.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, May 26, 2020.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
There is a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Northland late this afternoon into this evening – The areas most at risk in the Northland include southern portions of the area from eastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin.
Stay Weather Aware today and this evening!
Severe weather hazards for late this afternoon include
-Isolated Tornadoes
-Damaging Wind Gusts 58 mph or stronger
-Large Hail 1″ diameter or quarter size
8 AM update from the Storm Prediction Center
There is some slight turning of winds with height late this afternoon and this evening over southern portions of the Northland with more of a southerly wind near the surface, while higher up in the atmosphere winds veer more out of the southwest – This change of wind direction with height may cause a few thunderstorms to rotate late this afternoon into early this evening inside the yellow outlined area on map.
Heavy rain is possible late this afternoon and tonight from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible if thunderstorms move over the same location for a few hours.
Lesser amounts of rain across northern Minnesota, generally in the quarter to half inch range.
Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
A good thing to know now that we’re in our severe weather season in the Northland is what County do you live in, and what part of the County do you live in – Today’s severe weather risk area is focused from portions of Carlton and Pine County Minnesota, east to Douglas, Bayfield, Burnett, Washburn, Ashland and Sawyer County in Wisconsin.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
