6:41 PM Sunday, February 20, 2022
A significant and long duration snow event begins early Monday morning and likely won’t end until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Highest snow amounts and greatest impacts will be over east-central Minnesota to Duluth and over all of northwest Wisconsin with lesser amounts of snow expected the farther north you go with little to no snow expected around International Falls.
- Snow is forecast to begin across southern portions of the Northland early Monday morning (3 AM to 6 AM)
- Snow gradually lifts farther north reaching the Borderland and Arrowhead areas after 12 PM Monday.
- Snow tapers off across northern Minnesota and Arrowhead Monday night, but snow is expected to continue farther south through Tuesday evening before ending later Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.
For Duluth — Snow begins early Monday morning 3 AM to 6 AM. Snow ends late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning 11 PM to 2 AM. Total snowfall accumulations through late Tuesday night of 10 to 15 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid Midnight tonight to Midnight Tuesday night (snow in blue colors)
No changes made to my snowfall forecast as the 12z and 18z model runs haven’t changed a whole lot.
Not a lot of change in the newest SREF snowfall forecast for Duluth compared to the run 6 hours ago. A minimum amount of 13″, max amount of 35″ with a mean of 25″. I still think those totals are a tad bit high, however.
WIND AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
Winds will shift to the east-northeast and become gusty especially near Lake Superior early Monday morning through Monday evening, then will see the wind direction become more north to north-northeast later Monday night into Tuesday.
Periods of very low visibility due to falling and blowing snow may lead to near whiteout conditions at times near Lake Superior on Monday, then mostly along the South Shore on Tuesday.
For Duluth — Greatest potential for blowing snow will be during the day Monday into Monday evening with ENE winds gusting 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible. Tuesday will still be on the blustery side with a north wind gusting to 25 mph with areas of blowing snow likely. Note: I still think there is a chance for near blizzard conditions at times in the Twin Ports Monday afternoon-Monday evening.
A variety of winter weather alerts are in effect across the Northland
WINTER STORM WARNING — Starts early Monday morning 3 AM and ends Tuesday night between 6 PM and Midnight. Some cities included in the winter storm warning, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill City, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Superior, Solon Springs, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, Hurley, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward and Winter.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY — Starts early Monday morning 3 AM and ends Tuesday night at 6 PM. Some cities included in the winter weather advisory, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Isabella and Grand Marais.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY — Starts Midnight tonight and ends at Noon Monday. Some cities included in the wind chill advisory, International Falls, Orr, Crane Lake, Ely and Grand Marais. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero.
A larger view of the weather alerts in effect
Winter Storm Warning (pink)
Winter Weather Advisory (purple)
Wind Chill Warning and Wind Chill Advisory (medium shade blue and light blue)
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL
There has been enough clearing over parts of Lake Superior this afternoon to reveal where there is ice per visible satellite imagery.
One area of ice was over the southwest arm of Lake Superior (white outlined area) and this area of ice should shift west as winds become ENE later tonight into Monday, what impact this has on lake effect snow potential is unclear since there remains a lot of open water (heat source) over other parts of the lake, with ~35% of Lake Superior covered by ice as of February 19th.
Surface wind direction will be favorable (ENE wind) for lake enhanced snow Monday into Monday evening in Duluth and farther up the North Shore as well as along the South Shore of Lake Superior.
Surface winds are expected to become more NNE by Tuesday morning, and this should shift the threat for additional lake enhanced snow to the South Shore of Lake Superior east of Duluth during the day Tuesday.
Winds higher up in the atmosphere in this case at 850mb (~5000 feet) are forecast to be out of the east or northeast from Monday morning through Tuesday evening before they shift more to the north or northeast late Tuesday night. Whether or not this will prolong lake enhanced snow in Duluth right through the day Tuesday remains to be seen. Typically, with lake effect it depends more on the surface wind direction more so than what the winds are higher up in the atmosphere.
WINTER STORM SETUP
Just a crazy temperature contrast this afternoon, ranging from -24 F at Gillam Manitoba Canada to 68 F at Hays, Kansas. This temperature contrast is one ingredient fueling our winter storm, while we’re also seeing a very strong jet stream due to this big temperature contrast.
STORM TRACK
Thanks for reading!
Tim