5:24 PM Saturday, December 17, 2022
*A brief break in the snow is expected Sunday, but another system moves across the area on Monday which will bring some more snow to the Northland.
*A new daily snowfall record was set in Duluth today with 3.6 inches of snow, the previous record snowfall total for December 17th was 2.6 inches set in 1998.
*37.2 inches of snow so far this month in Duluth, this is +26.9 inches above normal to date, and is 361% of normal snowfall to date. The snowiest December on record in Duluth is 44.3 inches set in 1950, we only need another 7.1 inches of snow to tie this record.
*More snow chances ahead for mid to late next week, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the track of that system and just how much snow we may see here in the Northland.
*A much colder pattern is locking in for now with highs Sunday and Monday in the teens to around 20, but after that it’s onto an arctic air mass with daytime highs only in the single digits below to single digits above zero in the Northland for mid to late next week, with lows during that same time frame in the single digits below to around 20 below zero the way it looks now.
Power Outage Update — 5:21 PM Saturday, December 17, 2022.
Minnesota Power
105 active outages affecting 463 customers.
Lake Country Power
270 total outages affecting 2847 members.
Counties Affected
Aitkin — 526
Carlton — 556
Cass — 110
Itasca — 201
Pine — 600
St. Louis — 834
Snowfall analysis over the last 72 hours.
Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue across the Northland tonight into early Sunday morning with additional snowfall accumulations of a trace to 2 inches, with the highest amounts along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast thru 12 PM Sunday.
Here’s a look at Monday’s system via NAM 500mb forecast valid 6 AM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday.
Will see a surface and upper-level trough along with a weak surface low pass through the upper Midwest on Monday with enough moisture and lift accompanying this system to produce some snow in our area Monday into early Tuesday.
Timing of Monday’s snow varies a bit in model guidance with the Euro model showing the snow more in the Monday evening/overnight time frame, while the NAM model has snow developing by Monday afternoon.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 6 AM Monday to Midnight Tuesday.
A stronger system is forecast to dive SE out of western Canada and through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes from the middle to end of next week — This system could bring another round of snow to parts of the Northland from Wednesday through Friday.
EPS model 500mb forecast valid December 21-24, 2022.
Currently the chances for 6 inches or more of snow for mid to late next week are highest in Wisconsin with a lower chance in eastern Minnesota.
There is a chance that we could see some strong winds develop on the NW side of a deepening low for late next week with a potential for 25-35+ mph wind gusts in the Northland from Thursday into Friday (December 22-23)
Note — Blowing snow could become an issue later next week if we see some new snow and if the winds are as strong as what the European model is showing for late next week.
European model wind gust forecast valid 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM Friday.
Dangerously cold wind chills are possible mid to late next week with wind chill values in the -30s and -40s from western to southern Minnesota and in the -20s and -30s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Euro model wind chill forecast valid 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM Friday.
The week ahead will be very cold across the Northland, but it still looks like the core of the most extreme cold will setup more to our west, but any way you look at it expect a very cold week in our area.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for December 18-23, 2022.
Blue and Purple – Below average temperatures.
Thanks for reading!
Tim