5:27 PM Monday, December 19, 2022
- Snow continues in the Northland tonight, but the snow will taper off from SW-NE later tonight.
- Gusty northwest winds 15 to 30 mph overnight into Tuesday with areas of blowing snow.
- Wind chill headlines may be needed in parts of the Northland for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
- Winter weather headlines could be issued over the next 24 hours for parts of the Northland for the storm which may impact the area mid to late week.
- Growing potential for a few days of very strong winds late this week. Blowing snow and power outages possible.
TONIGHT’S SNOWFALL
Snow continues to fall across much of the Northland early this evening with snow moving to the north/east. Heavier snowfall in green.
Radar loop ending 4:58 PM CT, Monday, December 19, 2022.
Winter Weather Advisory continues until Noon Tuesday for the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeastern Minnesota.
A look at tonight’s system which is moving across Minnesota.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, December 19, 2022 (loop time ends 4:56 PM CT)
Snow will taper off from SW-NE in the Northland later tonight.
For Duluth — Snow ends later tonight between 10 PM and Midnight.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast ending 6 AM Tuesday (snow in blue)
No changes to my snowfall forecast for tonight’s snow event.
Should end up with about 2 to 3 inches of snow in Duluth by late tonight.
WINTER STORM THREAT MID TO LATE WEEK
A strong mid/upper-level trough and low-pressure system will move SE out of western Canada mid to late week. This system is forecast to deepen considerably as it moves across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region later this week.
A persistent upper-level ridge (high pressure) still over far northeast Canada will cause this low to move pretty slowly this week.
How much snow we see out of this system in the Northland is still a bit uncertain but do expect at least some snow from Wednesday through Friday with a chance for significant snow amounts especially in northwest Wisconsin, far eastern Minnesota, Twin Ports, North Shore and Arrowhead.
EPS model 500mb forecast valid Tuesday through Saturday, December 20-24, 2022.
EPS model probability for more than 6 inches of snow ending 6 PM Friday.
The Arrowhead of Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin currently have the greatest chance at picking up 6 or more inches of snow mid to late week with a lower chance in northern Minnesota. The black outlined area is in between the highest and lowest probabilities for 6 or more inches of snow thru 6 PM Friday.
Note — Several days of lake enhanced snow potential exists along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin late this week which could lead to snowfall storm totals of a foot or more by Christmas Eve.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
A tightening pressure gradient between a strong low well to our east, and a strong arctic high to our west could lead to very strong winds in the Northland late this week.
The potential is increasing for a few days of very strong north to northwest winds in the Northland from late Thursday through Christmas Eve (Saturday) The strongest winds may impact areas near Lake Superior with a chance for wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph or stronger late this week.
European model wind gust forecast valid 12 PM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday.
SIBERIAN EXPRESS/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is looking mighty frigid in the Northland with temperatures in the -10s to -20s below zero.
Dangerously low wind chills ranging from around -30 to -50 below zero are expected mid to late week across western to southern Minnesota, with wind chills in the -10s, -20s and -30s in the Northland later this week.
European model wind chill forecast valid 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM Saturday.
Dangerously cold temperatures continued today over parts of Alaska into western/northwest Canada with temperatures in the -30s and -40s with even a few -50s mixed in as well. This bitterly cold air mass will be making its way farther to the south/southeast over the next few days, although this air mass will modify just a bit, but it will still be bitterly cold.
Thanks for reading!
Tim